You mean all of the world governments are in collusion with each other in some great master plan?
When Does Lockdown End?
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You mean all of the world governments are in collusion with each other in some great master plan?
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I have not seen any convincing data on that yet?
That seems without any doubt.
No, because if it was due to vaccines, you would find cases in the older population were declining more and sooner than cases in the younger. Remember the priority groups.
Which is not what's happened so far.
A decline in cases among the population at large could be caused by a successful post-Christmas lockdown or some other cause. Not by vaccinations of the elderly.
Your graph shows cases starting a steep decline from about Jan 10th, which is too early to be caused by mass vaccinations.
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...19-vaccine-reduces-transmission-idUSKBN2AJ08D
Tad too early to tell for the UK.
And yes but it's remarkable how effective the vaccine is.
On another positive and interesting note the lockdown restrictions have had effects on pockets of other contagious diseases like measles that we haven't been able to eradicate for years - that are always very hard to do due to the effectiveness limit of its own vaccine.
We might very well see the eradication of some other nasty diseases as a result of all of this.
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Ok.
So the start of the vaccinations coincided with the drop in cases.
Won't it therefore be very difficult to quantify the effectiveness of the vaccine?
Mmmm.
If the vaccine works, you should expect to see a drop in new cases, in the priority groups vaccinated, starting around 3 weeks after their mass vaccination started; and a drop in severe cases, in the priority groups vaccinated, starting around 6 weeks after their mass vaccination started. In more detail, you could even measure how much improvement there was in week 1, week 2, week 3, and so on. You would eventually know the effects, if any, of the delay from 3-week to 12-week interval in the second jab; and you would know if the "3-week" period for good immunity was correct.
You should expect to see a difference in 70-year olds (vaccinated in priority group 4 I think), and 69-year olds, vaccinated in priority group 5 I think), that would not be explained by such a small difference in age, but could be due to the date of vaccine eligibility. And you should expect to see no particular improvement in 64-year olds who I think are not yet eligible.
Somebody, somewhere, probably has the data on individuals by dob and date of vaccination, and date of entry to hospital, and date of death, and can winkle out more precise statistics. If I was running statistical analysis, I think I'd want to do that, on at least a sample, and then again by home location, weight, sex, and any other factor that might be relevant. For example some towns or districts moved down the priority groups faster or slower than others.
I think I'd probably want to use a computer. Maybe one in Fareham or Newport.
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durhamplumber
And the effects of lockdown
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teaboyjim
What's happened about the South African strain and it being less effected by the vaccine? Is it still a threat to people who will have taken the vaccine we're using?
It will be monitored, but considering some other vaccines haven't changed for decades it would be very surprising if any new strain renders the vaccine completly useless clinically, it just changes the numbers and strategy.
I think some data has now released showing 501Y.V2 causes less antibody production in the lab with the Pfizer vaccine, but we have little clinical information.
Immunology is a huge topic; if total knowledge of the immune system was running a mile, we have gone and understand approximately 3 steps of it.
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teaboyjim
That's encouraging to know. I can never understand why the news can't spread the positive information as well as the more alarming
It's a classic mixing of different world's; good medical / scientific communication is really hard at the best of times.
What I would be encouraged by is the absolute sheer volume and pace of the research effort. The underlying technology of some the vaccines have massive implications for all sorts of diseases.
In general, vaccines for contagious disease are probably up there as one of the most significant achievements of the human race.
Think from the perspective of the virus, we are doing so many things it doesn't want us to do! https://xkcd.com/2287/
Some form of 'lockdown' will remain in place for the foreseeable future...
But the real question should be when (if ever) the emergency laws are repealed and we return to the semblance of 'democracy' we had...
Again, not for the foreseeable future...
Because the sheeple are easily led!
But the real question should be when (if ever) the emergency laws are repealed and we return to the semblance of 'democracy' we had...
Again, not for the foreseeable future...
Because the sheeple are easily led!
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teaboyjim
My guess is that from April onwards the easing of restrictions might be quite rapid because the most vulnerable to the virus will have been double vaccinated by then and so as you say there might be some kind of restrictions in place but nothing like what they are at the moment. Are you not worried about catching it yourself if you don't get vaccinated though?
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