The hockey stick -this is a go to argument pushed by climate change deniers
Hockey Stick Controversy
Introduction
In 1998, a paper authored by Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley, and Malcolm K. Hughes was published in the journal
Nature. The authors reconstructed average air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere from 1500 AD to the present using a number of different kinds of data. They included in their article a graph of these average Northern Hemisphere temperatures. The graph showed that, despite much up-and-down variability, the temperature rise seen in recent decades is unprecedented over the time period considered. The authors also concluded that human-released greenhouse gases, especially
carbon dioxide, were almost certainly the cause of the recent
global warming. In 1999, Mann published a version of the graph going back 1,000 years. The temperature curve of both graphs is relatively flat for most of its length, then shoots up suddenly at the right-hand end (marking the recent past to the present), resembling in outline a hockey stick laid on its side.
Since its publication, the paper has been attacked by greenhouse skeptics, and its methods have been criticized by various mathematicians. However, the
National Academy of Sciences and the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have both asserted that the graph is, despite uncertainties, an essentially correct picture of global temperature over at least the last 1,000 to 1,300 years.
Historical Background and Scientific Foundations
Mann, Bradley, and Hughes are neither the first nor the last scientists to reconstruct past temperature proxy data, that is, from measurements of phenomena such as tree-ring thicknesses that show temperature indirectly. Proxy data are needed for periods longer than about 150 years ago because no precise weather measurements were recorded before that time.
In their 1998 paper, Mann and his colleagues cite data from multiproxy (many-proxy) studies using ice cores, glacial melting, written historical records, tree rings, coral layers, and other sources of information about past climate. Such work had been done by other scientists before, but Mann, Bradley, and Hughes were the first to assemble records into a single chart spanning such a long time period. A version of the graph appeared in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC in 2001, the
United Nations-based organization's summary of the state of scientific knowledge about climate change.
Scientific papers criticizing the graph began appearing in 2003. A paper by W. Soon and S. Baliunas argued that a warm interval in the
Middle Ages called the Medieval Warm Epoch was roughly equivalent to today's warming; S. McIntyre and R. McKitrick stated that they could not reproduce the hockey stick graph using Mann et al.'s original multiproxy data. In 2004, Hans von Storch argued in
Science that Mann's group had underestimated the amount of variation in past climate by a factor of two, which would tend to make it less likely that today's rising temperatures are truly unusual. In 2005, McIntyre and McKitrick claimed that they could produce the hockey-stick graph shape by using Mann et al.'s mathematical methods on noise (random data). If true, this would tend to show that the hockey stick graph is meaningless.
In 2005, the U.S. Congress asked the National Research Council's Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, part of the
National Academy of Sciences, to assemble a committee to examine the question of global temperatures over the last 2,000 years—essentially, to decide whether the hockey stick graph is a valid picture of climate change. A Committee on Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years, containing 16 scientists, was formed. In 2006, the scientists released a book-length report on surface-temperature reconstruction. In it, they painstakingly reviewed all categories of proxy and instrumental (direct-measurement) data on atmospheric surface temperature.
The committee concluded that the hockey stick graph is essentially valid. “It can be said with a high level of confidence,” the committee wrote, “that global mean temperature was higher during the last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable period during the preceding four centuries.” However, it also noted that as one goes further back in time, uncertainty increases.