How Has Your Local Political Geography Changed?

[securespark]

We have a Lib Dem council. You have my sympathies.

Our Libdems are very efficient.

They are always posting stuff through doors, keeping in touch with everyone.
By comparison, the blues only go letterbox stuffing at election time. Although this time, I saw a grand total of zero Tory leaflets. And the voting reflected that.

 

[Ihavenojob]

Our Libdems are very efficient.

I have no idea what ours do. We have our rubbish picked up every fortnight, most gets in the lorry but a good amount is strewn all over the road. They invest heavily in yellow paint and traffic wardens, parks and verges are never cut, roads are full of mulch from tree leaves, resulting in blocked drains and small sycamore trees growing in the gutters, some are getting on for a foot high.

 

[ellal]

Am I right in thinking people are putting their faith in the labour party.

Not faith, it's desperation...

As it was last time around, and the times before...

And so it will be for time immemorial unless an archaic election system is chucked away into the dustbin of history!

 

[JohnD]

Trying to puzzle out how badly the Tories did. Many councils, and many councillors, were not due for election this year, so the swing in voting is only reflected as a fraction of Councils changing hands.

8058 English council seats were up for election

By my reckoning, a bit over 3000 of them were held by Tories.

A bit over 1000 Tory seats were lost. One third. It is widely considered that dissatisfaction with Conservative central government is the cause of the swing.

But in the forthcoming General Election, all 650 MP seats will be up for election.

There are currently about 365 Conservative MPs.

 

[blup]

John Curtice is one of the few political commentators who is rigorous impartial and consistent, he thinks labour would not have got a majority at a general election on this showing.

Blup

 

[blup]

Oops link below:

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/local-election-results-labour-lead-tories-john-curtice-2321205link

Blup

 

[JohnD]

Oops link below:

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/local-election-results-labour-lead-tories-john-curtice-2321205link

Blup

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[blup]

Local election results not enough to give Labour a general election majority, John Curtice says

Labour would not win enough parliamentary seats to win outright if the local election results were applied at the next general election

inews.co.uk

 

[ETAF]

Local election 2023: Prof Sir John Curtice on what the results mean for the parties

Is Labour on course, as polls suggest, for a potential general election victory next year?

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[JohnD]

Local election 2023: Prof Sir John Curtice on what the results mean for the parties

Is Labour on course, as polls suggest, for a potential general election victory next year?

www.bbc.co.uk

"According to this estimate, the Conservatives would have won 26% of the national vote, down two points on their poor performance in 2019 though a little above the worst ever local election outcomes for the party (in 1995 and 2013).
Labour's 35% puts them nine points ahead of the Conservatives, the largest lead that Labour has recorded in any local election since it lost power in 2010."

Does he mean there would not be a majority party?

 

[Justin Passing]

Perfectly clear, is it not?
"
He predicted that Labour would win 312 seats if the nation voted the same way it had voted in the local elections, meaning it would be 14 short of an overall majority.

This would lead to a hung parliament, and Labour would likely have to form a minority administration or enter into an agreement with other parties under this scenario. "

 

[JohnD]

Perfectly clear, is it not?
"
He predicted that Labour would win 312 seats if the nation voted the same way it had voted in the local elections, meaning it would be 14 short of an overall majority.

This would lead to a hung parliament, and Labour would likely have to form a minority administration or enter into an agreement with other parties under this scenario. "

I do not see that text.

 

[Dork Lard]

There are lies, there are damned lies & then there is statistics.

It worries me that folk keep bandying these statistics around like they actually mean anything.

T'village, & the borough it's associated with, enjoyed a MAHOOOSIVE swing from blue to red.

It means nowt' much at all.

A 33% voter turnout tells me that the folk 'round 'ere aren't that much fussed & let this one pass them by.

 

[securespark]

And so it will be for time immemorial unless an archaic election system is chucked away into the dustbin of history!

OOI, what would you replace it with?

 

[blup]

Starmer is not home and dry by any stretch. He is making a mistake error by shifting to the right and dropping policies like nationalisation. He is playing a game of keeping the right wing media happy rather than appealing to the electorate directly with radical, i.e. sensible, left of centre policies. I predict a deal with Murdock over media rights in return for his papers' support. Which gives labour a term or maybe two while politics ratchets ever further to the right. Or the tories somehow manage to slip in a win in 2024.

Blup