Putin, arse, elbow
- Thread starter JohnD
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What SAM site? There isn't one anywhere close. Russia is pelting Ukraine with missiles every day. You think they'd let Ukraine have such a thing plonked on Snake Island? Would you want to man it?
A DRONE attack from a ship could knock out an AA installation. How would the Ukrainians get it there?
Ukraine doesn't have many long range anti-aircraft systems (no s-400's) and the ones they do have are around their cities.
Russia is using its air force in eastern Ukraine, and I haven't heard much about Ukraine shooting things down recently. Stingers are no good for that.
Do they have any A-A to defend Snake Island from bombs from 50,000 feet?
How long do you really think the Russians would let Ukr have anything set up there?
Drones that have range can be shot down by SAMs.
Getting kit to the island is manageable, as long as you're not under fire. Russia will struggle to project power that far from their shores without risking very expensive platforms.
Russia is being hyper cautious of its aircraft, they barely poke their noses over the border and then fling unguided rockets on a ballistic arc before turning back. The strategic failure and caution of the Russian Airforce is heavily discussed.
S300s are very capable.
And if you're bombing from 50,000 feet you're not going to hit anything.
My guess is the Russians are doing what they say...making a strategic withdrawal from the island. They've told Ukraine they can clear the sea lanes of mines and renew shipping goods and grain (if they have any left after Russian forces made off with as much as they could). They took the island initially with thoughts of using it as a base for an amphibious assault on Odessa but after their landing craft were obliterated in a probing operation it became clear they'd lose too many men and naval craft for any clear-cut success.
I'd say the Russian forces are close to occupying Donbas and Putin will declare his 'special operation' a success, annex the region to Russia and leave NATO in a dilemma: continue supplying Ukraine with weapons as they try to regain the south-east region taken from them which by Russian perceptions becomes an attack on Russian territory and by default, an attack supported by NATO, becoming dangerously close to a proxy war by the West.
Or sue for peace terms and settle down in a new Cold War.
Only time will tell.
I'd say the Russian forces are close to occupying Donbas and Putin will declare his 'special operation' a success, annex the region to Russia and leave NATO in a dilemma: continue supplying Ukraine with weapons as they try to regain the south-east region taken from them which by Russian perceptions becomes an attack on Russian territory and by default, an attack supported by NATO, becoming dangerously close to a proxy war by the West.
Or sue for peace terms and settle down in a new Cold War.
Only time will tell.
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Untrue.
Russia is running out of missiles
currently they are firing 50,000 a day in an all out offensive, but they can’t keep it up.
Putin's Next Ukraine Disaster: The Russian Army Is Running Out of Ammo
Many analysts believe that Russian forces are running short of ammunition, particularly artillery, in their bloody war against Ukraine.
www.19fortyfive.com
Russia had no wish to deprive anybody of anything.. The sanctions are doing this and are needed. Rather than a war shutting of supplies might have been an alternative and it seems this may happen or is to some extent - gas. Not much impact on the USA other than fuel. There are other sources of titanium mow unlike when the USA built their SR71's. They bought from Russia on the quiet. A reduction in supply pushes up prices as with everything else Russia exports that is on the sanction list.
Ukraine do have Russian long range anti aircraft gear. BBC happened on one that had been damaged. It didn't take much. The fact that Russia has been doing low level bombing may be due to this or relative cost where they can do low level bombing without loosing aircraft. There has been reports of air launched cruise missiles of late.
Analysts believe this and that doesn't mean they know. Russiais thought to have ~900 active grad type launchers with more in reserve. They can carry 40 rockets which suggests there needs to be an enormous stock of them. The other comment on these is that they appear to have an endless supply. No one really know how long it takes them to make munitions of any type.
Russia - it seems this is the summer campaign which ends ~September.
Ukraine do have Russian long range anti aircraft gear. BBC happened on one that had been damaged. It didn't take much. The fact that Russia has been doing low level bombing may be due to this or relative cost where they can do low level bombing without loosing aircraft. There has been reports of air launched cruise missiles of late.
Analysts believe this and that doesn't mean they know. Russiais thought to have ~900 active grad type launchers with more in reserve. They can carry 40 rockets which suggests there needs to be an enormous stock of them. The other comment on these is that they appear to have an endless supply. No one really know how long it takes them to make munitions of any type.
Russia - it seems this is the summer campaign which ends ~September.
I don't think China will want to be seen helping Russia with military equipment, now or in the future. America would definitely take a dim view of such action and probably apply sanctions. It'll certainly take advantage of the cheap oil on sale from Russia, though.
Bernie would take a bullet for Putin, good old Bernie ...
news.sky.com
Bernie Ecclestone says he would 'take a bullet' for 'first class' Vladimir Putin as he defends war in Ukraine
The former F1 boss said Russian President Vladimir Putin was a "first class person" who had made "mistakes" - as he criticised Ukraine leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy for "not listening" to the Kremlin.
news.sky.com
Apart from life, liberty and the Donbas region.
True and Crimea and maybe yet more of Ukraine than Donbas. Already a bit in the south. Putin has suggested that after Donbas yet more if things not satisfactory for their side of things. The west will never accept the annexation. So Ukraine cease firing ? This is the crazy aspect about it all. Can Russia do it. I have my doubts but who knows. I don't. Curious thing about Donbas is that the line running close to Donetsk hasn't moved at all. This suggests a far bit of the Donetsk Oblast still needs to be taken. There has been a couple of reports from Kyiv that Russia is moving more gear into the south. What for?
Most reports on Snake Island part mention symbolic as well as Ukraine has taken it. A Russian war ship asked the occupants to surrender. They answered f'off. It was occupied anyway and Ukraine issued a special stamp praising the f'off aspect, heroes. There has been talk of Russia using it to help attack Odessa. Ukraine might be able to use it to help prevent that. Anyway maybe to show that the loss doesn't mean much 3 missiles hit Odessa. May be 2, one shot down or just 2. Report not clear. Odessa is mined anyway - very likely to be the problem with negotiating grain exports. I don't think Uktaine has much at all in terms of ships it can move around. I don't recollect any reports on that aspect.
China. There was USA organised summit made up of leaders from areas that could be or are influenced by China. The general view including Taiwan is that they don't want to choose sides. Taiwan's main interest is self government. I understand China has said that they wont supply Russia with weapons but the sanctions have probably boosted their exports there and they also seem to have helped the Russian banking system continue to run domestically. Cash machine area.
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Why?
Russia has already simply bombed snake island to destroy what was there.
As was predictable to anyone with a few neurons.
They dropped 4 bombs on an undefended rock. One hit the island. I'm not impressed.
Looked like 2 to me and one at a landing stage. Also wondered who videoed it.
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