Putin, arse, elbow

[Justin Passing]

They dropped 4 bombs on an undefended rock. One hit the island. I'm not impressed.

I don't suppose the Russians care what you think.
They bombed the island. Like I said they would. They have many planes, they would have only used what they needed. We have no idea how many they dropped. You think it's Hollywood? No, they don't have to video them all.

And this isn't WW2. If you drop bombs from altitude, you use guided bombs, simple.

You got it all wrong as usual.

 

[Justin Passing]

"​

Russia’s Snake Island withdrawal unlikely to ease grain crisis: Analyst​

Russia’s withdrawal from Snake Island is unlikely to help ease the crisis over Ukraine’s blockaded grain, a leading Kyiv-based military analyst has said.

“This will not unblock the export of grain. Russia retains shooting control over this area of the waters. One option is that the United Nations forms a humanitarian convoy, then maybe there would be a chance to get these ships out with grain from our ports for export,” said Oleg Zhdanov.

It was also unlikely that Ukraine would itself take up positions and deploy anti-ship weapons on the island to try to beef up its coastline defences because the island remained within the firing range of Russian forces, Zhdanov said.
"

 

[IT Minion]

I don't suppose the Russians care what you think.
They bombed the island. Like I said they would. They have many planes, they would have only used what they needed. We have no idea how many they dropped. You think it's Hollywood? No, they don't have to video them all.

And this isn't WW2. If you drop bombs from altitude, you use guided bombs, simple.

You got it all wrong as usual.

There is footage from a Ukrainian TB2 of a low level Russian bombing run. Four bombs were dropped and three hit the water.

No aircraft are flying at anything higher than treetop height now. As you say it's not WW2.

 

[Justin Passing]

So what? Russia easily bombed Snake island.
I didn't say they had to fly high, but they could if they wanted.
Stop digging.

"No aircraft are flying at anything higher than treetop height now. As you say it's not WW2."
Piffle.
Obviously they avoid A-A, but one option is to go over whatever's local. If there were anything around Snake island they could go high. There obviously isn't which I thought was likely , so they could go low.

 

[ajohn]

Russia’s withdrawal from Snake Island is unlikely to help ease the crisis over Ukraine’s blockaded grain, a leading Kyiv-based military analyst has said.

One problem that hasn't been mentioned much is Ukraine mined the approach to Odessa. Talk of clearing those so ships can get out aren't getting anywhere. Russia suggested it weeks ago also clearing the mines providing their ships were not sunk also providing an escort.

More recently the idea seems to be Turkey providing the escort and the UN inspecting to make sure the ships aren't carrying arms when they arrive. This appears to be what the man from the UN has been trying to negotiate. Also some way of getting fertiliser and ingredients moving again but that relates to Belarus and Russia. Ukraine's comments, The problem is Russia - so leave and we don't trust the Russians.

The only time these mines have been mentioned was when Russia mentioned them but they do appear to be there. I am assuming Ukraine mined it but reports aren't exactly clear. They did mine the beach - that was reported. Floating mines have been mentioned.

Only recent comment is that the negotiations were getting close to a solution - suggesting there will be one soon. ???? Pass. Greece it seems have said they will provide ships. A lot of this came out around the NATO summit. Mixed in with reports about that. If ships are involved and it's Ukraine grain I can't see any other port than Odessa being used. Land routes iit seems can't carry enough and have other complications. There was also talk of the grain going to Turkey earlier but only from Turkey as far as I am aware.

It might all be another war of words.

The cap on Russian oil prices is interesting. Seems to be that they can sell but not at todays inflated prices which had dropped recently. Biden said at some level of profit but not a lot. He thinks it will bring oil prices down. Does he mean it or is it a threat to get the arabs to release more. Have to wait and see.

It seems the G7 has put an embargo on buying Russian gold. Next best export after gas and oil.

 

[JohnD]

And this isn't WW2. If you drop bombs from altitude, you use guided bombs, simple.

Unless you have a country with a technological deficit, finding it difficult to import the aerospace parts you can't make yourself.

 

[Justin Passing]

One problem that hasn't been mentioned much is Ukraine mined the approach to Odessa. Talk of clearing those so ships can get out aren't getting anywhere. Russia suggested it weeks ago also clearing the mines providing their ships were not sunk also providing an escort.

More recently the idea seems to be Turkey providing the escort and the UN inspecting to make sure the ships aren't carrying arms when they arrive. This appears to be what the man from the UN has been trying to negotiate. Also some way of getting fertiliser and ingredients moving again but that relates to Belarus and Russia. Ukraine's comments, The problem is Russia - so leave and we don't trust the Russians.

The only time these mines have been mentioned was when Russia mentioned them but they do appear to be there. I am assuming Ukraine mined it but reports aren't exactly clear. They did mine the beach - that was reported. Floating mines have been mentioned.

Only recent comment is that the negotiations were getting close to a solution - suggesting there will be one soon. ???? Pass. Greece it seems have said they will provide ships. A lot of this came out around the NATO summit. Mixed in with reports about that. If ships are involved and it's Ukraine grain I can't see any other port than Odessa being used. Land routes iit seems can't carry enough and have other complications. There was also talk of the grain going to Turkey earlier but only from Turkey as far as I am aware.

It might all be another war of words.

The cap on Russian oil prices is interesting. Seems to be that they can sell but not at todays inflated prices which had dropped recently. Biden said at some level of profit but not a lot. He thinks it will bring oil prices down. Does he mean it or is it a threat to get the arabs to release more. Have to wait and see.

It seems the G7 has put an embargo on buying Russian gold. Next best export after gas and oil.

They've been banging on about the mines being Ukranian for as long as I can remember.

If the west want to put military boats, like minesweepers, in through the Turkish waters, the Russians will do it too. Turkey isn't exactly going to fire on them if they do it anyway.



Question for soon, is whether Pootin will go for Odessa??????

 

[ajohn]

Critical threats reckon Lysychansk has fallen, It's unusual for them to depart from Kyiv reports who say Russia hasn't encircled it but it looks like Ukraine withdrew. That is ~1/2 of Donbas annexed as far as Russia is concerned.

Reports of a Ukraine fired missile hitting a Russian town about 40km from the boarder. Russian report.

Mines - I was fascinated by Zylenskyy's comment concerning them and wonder what the wests attitude is. It's a rather tricky area for both sides in some ways so I have an interest in how it develops. No mines means ships can come and go as usual. Then there are the complications such as why the mines are there also who does what. This relates to how many people may starve without the grain. Info on that isn't available. Grain prices are one aspect having enough is another.

 

[Justin Passing]

The mines were originally to stop R's attacking the Odessa port from the sea. That situation will have been altered by strikes on ships which the U's have made. I wouldn't be surprised if R ignores Turkey's objections and sends more ships in. Russia can easily accuse Turkey of supplying arms to U. It may stretch the truth, but so what.

40km from the border, suggests they might have used the US rocket launchers they were asked not to.


R attacking random cities ties up some of U's limited resources - especially the western A-A etc.

 

[ajohn]

40km from the border, suggests they might have used the US rocket launchers they were asked not to.

That was my thoughts. According to war in ukraine they were fired from an area way away from the actually fighting. Russia hasn't commented on what they were and might say US supplied even if not.

 

[Charlie George]

Ukraine used OTR-21 Tochka U missiles, and russia did report that these were used, and claimed they intercepted them in belgorod, Ukraine was reported to have 500 of these missiles at the start of the war.

 

[ajohn]

The Toschka has ranges of 70,120 and 185km according the version so no problem with 40 or more. Accuracy improves with range 150,95 and 70m. That's what 1/2 of the ones fired are expected to achieve.

The replacement Russia uses brings that down to 5m with a range of 500km. That is supposed to have replaced the Toschka but they still seem to be used. Same missile ??? The USA objected as they reckon it can exceed 500km a limit some treaty or the other sets. It's a true cruise missile so probably more expensive.

Seems all travel at mach 5 or more.

 

[THFC]

Question for soon, is whether Pootin will go for Odessa??????

I think he will try, yes.

However, because it is much closer to the Western border, it will be much easier for the Ukrainians to get the weapons/ammunition supplied by the West there to use against the Ruskies so I think he is unlikely to succeed.

I think that Ukraine will throw everything they've got at defending Odessa in order to keep at least one port on the Black Sea.

 

[ajohn]

Question for soon, is whether Pootin will go for Odessa??????

I'd have thought maybe a bit more of the area west of Luhansk Oblast. Then the remaining parts of Donbas which is a pretty large area of the Donetsk Oblast. Following Putin's "liberation" plan in other words. I'd been trying to sort out where the fighting line was in Donetsk area, finally an image on TV. Russia doesn't control a fairly large part of it.

This area is where the Ukraine trench has been shown several times on TV and the line doesn't seem to have moved at all since day 1. They concentrated on going south, Mariupol etc. There was a sort of no man's line beyond the trench.

So this may be the time to see how much western weapons and Russia running out of stuff figures. Also what Ukraine has left. Talk of sending 500 tanks. They are still saying send more, more powerful etc at every opportunity.

However there seems have been a bit more intense fighting N of Kharkiv and a very recent missile strike on it.

 

[ajohn]

There has been a meeting about Ukraine rebuilding costs. They reckon $750b though a trillion has been mentioned in the past. There has been footage of some places being reglazed but some will need a lot more than that.

It's an area I have been curious about since UK criticism - not getting a fair share of Iraq rebuilding costs so had a quick look at how that was achieved. Payment etc. Bit of a potted report but there are others. It mentions contributions. Most reports just mention totals and problems

Islamic State was defeated. Now who will pay to rebuild Iraq?

After three years of war to defeat the Islamic State group, Iraq estimates $100 billion is needed to rebuild. So far no one is offering to foot the bill.

www.nbcnews.com