When did the makers and purveyors of cheap/counterfeit/dangerous Chinese tat hit their stride?
I could see that having a longer-term influence, but surely it would need a sudden and huge changeout of switchgear to the Chinese junk over a very short period of time to account for the sort of jump in the statistics shown in that graph? Is that likely?
Very unlikely, I would have said. It could really only have happened if, around 2011-12, a batch of CU components appeared, a proportion of which 'burst into flames' very soon after installation. Not impossible, but very unlikley, and we would probably have heard about it. However, given that LFB have used these statistics to bring about very wide-ranging changes in regulations (with major cost implications), one would have expected them to provide much more information - e.g. about the make/model of CU components and the interval since they had been put into service.
We do need to keep these figures in perspective. The absolute increase in allegedly CU-initiated fires between 2011/12 and 2012/13 was 149 fires (71 vs. 220). If thousands, or tens of thousands of components from a defective batch suddenly appeared on the market at some point in time, those 149 fires would represent a pretty small proportion of the number installed, and so would not be beyond belief.
You and BAS talk about "Chinese tat/junk" but, of course, the one issue we
do know about is the fire hazard which resulted in recall of Electrium MCBs manufactured mainly in 2009. That might possibly have some bearing on the figures we are looking at, particularly the more modest and gradual increase that was seen during 2007 - 2011.
Having said all that, my opinion remains that by far the most likely explanation for the figures relates to possible changes in the way in which they were collected - particularly changes in the extent to which they 'went looking for' possible CU origination of fires.
Kind Regards, John