After two years of relentless price rises, much of the rest of the country still seems in denial as well. Inflation
is falling but
remains higher in Britain than many comparable nations. Yet opinion polls regularly show that roughly a third of Britons mistakenly believe that falling inflation
means falling prices in general – rather than prices merely rising more slowly. The government sometimes encourages this misunderstanding. Last July,
Rishi Sunak told the radio station LBC: “If we bring inflation down, people will have more money to spend.” For a former chancellor, someone supposed to understand the economy better than almost anyone, it seemed a weirdly over-optimistic prediction.
There are almost certainly harsher plateaux to come. Our farmers are warning that food prices will rise after a long period of
record-breaking rain. The freeze in income tax thresholds means higher rates for millions. Council tax is increasing at an unprecedented pace. Meanwhile, the slow-motion collapse of Thames Water suggests a huge bill is on its way, either to its 16 million customers in southern England or to taxpayers in general.
Misconceived privatisations, the climate crisis, the strained finances of both local and national government: British inflation is the product of both huge global forces and bad policy choices. Two years ago, an ONS study of
British inflation since 1950 found that, while its infamous surge in the 1970s was largely caused by “sharp increases in world prices for food and other commodities”, since 1989 “the biggest driver … has typically been housing and household services, which includes gas and electricity prices”. By doing so much during the 1980s to create today’s property-obsessed, profiteering economy, Margaret Thatcher did not
“defeat” British inflation, as she promised, but made it worse in the long run instead.
The inflation shock of the past three years, like those of the 1970s and 80s, will leave a legacy of money worries. They will weigh on millions of Britons long after Sunak declares inflation beaten. The cost of living crisis has made Britain a poorer, more anxious country. The Tories may deny it, but shopkeepers know it. A big reward may be waiting for a prime minister who can make many voters’ money worries go away.
Andy Beckett@the Guardina