Stock market dealing

[Justin Passing]

You went long when the price was falling - or v v.

It isn't all luck. Maybe it is when you trade. That's the difference

"I had a trailing stop loss, as per your suggestion." I did not suggest you always use a TS. Stop your lying.

Looking like the Guru had a point today. Spooky, that. I didn't believe him, I thought eg NVIDIA would crawl on up.
WHat would be the point of detailing the trades, when I've told you what I'm going to do, then done it? I'm not looking for help.
I did show one for a couple of hundred k or whatever it was. That would prove a point.

 

[Justin Passing]

Yesterday I lost some on what JD might call investments as I forgot a stop-loss on one, my fault.
They go up and down anyway but it's annoying to make that sort of mistake.
Made some on a bitcoin related stock, as hundreds of times before.

The "guru"' prediction was based on timing/cycles. It's surprising how often those things are right. Often they're self fulfilling - people sell in case..

Japan stocks are rising at an unsustainable rate. Investments in those have gained several % in a few days, but it's hard to know when that will end.
I really don't understand all that's going on in Japan. India has been flat, but I have a lump there, hoping.

Tenterhooks untill the US announcement Friday, which will probably, if -0.25$ , not cause too much change.

 

[Justin Passing]

Oooh another gay day. Lots of tech stocks down about 3%. Tomorrow may well be similar. I'll be more ready than I was today to respond.
With such big movements, it was easy to "win" but long-term stuff will have been hit to some extent, though I'm still in Bonds to a large extent.

 

[Justin Passing]

Well I was a bit ready.. Lots of the usual stocks having hissy fits and changing direction fairly predictably. So you "plump" for one and go with it. If you're wrong, you stop the trade short. and find another.


I have sid many times that I like to jump on bitcoin derived stocks. If they move 10% in a day, which is quite common, with leverage you make 50% on your money in a day So 100 at Monday morning is 759 Friday night. Deep joy.

BItcoin hasn't been as mobile until today, but please take a moment to ponder this bitcoin related stock's (Microstrategy 3x) movements over the past couple of weeks
If you inspect, you'll see that the difference between the bottom of the channel and the top is about 25%..
This is a single stock available on the London exchange. All by itself, it's leveraged.
That means you only have to buy the stock low, and sell it high.
With a plain and simple broker like a bank or similar, you can't "Short" the stock. That takes a trading platform, and gets a bit more technical,
So I'll say the stock was bought on the Green line, and sold on the Red.
The dotted verticals are the start of the trading day, 8 am/end at 4:30.
The vertical light blue construction shows the % difference at that point. (25%, some were more)

That's 6 holding periods from 10th this month to now, 23rd.

2 weeks, 6 lots of 25% = 150%.
So you'd have started with 100, you'd have ended up with 250.
If you'd learned trading platformmery, the 25%'s would have been 40%, and you'd have got the gain both ways, so a total of 11 moves.
100 would become 540 in two weeks.
Two more weeks, and it's 2500.
Another month 62500
Another month 1500000.
ANd you could have started with 10k, not £100.

This period came out rather neatly, it's not always like that, and there are some timingh issues, but you can see the potential.
If you want to sit on John D's rse, no problem, you just set up a trading bot.
Why don't lots of people do it? Actually they do.

But this was not a particularly good spell for these shenanegins, there was more to be made elsewhere.

Absent the bot, you can set an alarm to your phone and trade on that. As you can see, no drama if you miss one, you just get a bit less, or wait for the next wave.

 

[Justin Passing]

#Investing end of week2. First post was HERE with some waffle about the idea.

Tkr is the stock ticker, Tsow is the ticker price at the start of the week

Week	Tkr	Tsow	Teow	£sow	£eow	Δ%	£val	val %
0 (wk33)							£1000
	3NVD	3000	4464	£667	£900	53.75%
	JPN3	800	919	£333	£386	16%
							£1286	128.6
1 (wk34)							£1286
	3NVD	4464	4874	£900	£981	9%
	JPN3	919	992	£386	£417	8%
							£1398	139.8

Near 40% in 2 weeks, no trades. I will need to do something for the next week I think.
If I had been active daily on this I would have sold Japan stock a day or two ago, but I'm only trading at week end.
Nvidia results are due.
There's lot of hype about thow much they're earning, but a hint of the rate of rise of the rate of rise not being sustainable could crash the price.
The rest of the chippy sector would be likely to follow to some extent. The rest of the tech sector may not be affected much, but it's difficult to separate in a single fund. The biggest US stocks are ridiculously overvalued, but things have been madder in the past.

The Yen is still weakening but not as fast. The medium term outlook for their stock market is good, but the Bank of Japan is likely to alter something, we know not what.
Time for some consolidation perhaps. Suggestions welcome!

(PS.. BBcode tables take forever)

 

[Arbu]

1​	1​
1​	1​
1​	85.33​
26.66​	219.99​
333.33​	102.85​
18.46​	153.84​
123.07​	50​
87.87​	800​
295.36​

Do you need BBCode? I just copied the above figures straight from Excel.

 

[Justin Passing]

It's not in excel to copy. It's ok once started, just copy and paste.

 

[Justin Passing]

#Investing pre week 3
For the week ahead most are thinking NVIDIA is going todo it again and break new records.
They're the only game in town if you want to develop Artificial Intelligence strategies. AMD is number two, but a long way behind.
The're all, particularly NVDIA, making a huge margin on their chips, they're increasing production, and they have a long wait-list.
What could be better? Not much really. They're likely to start a share buy-back scheme, and/or increase dividends.

But if they disappoint against any of those exectations, the bots will read the report and sell within a millisecond, and the price will drop.
If the price dips it'll recover, but could take a long time.
So I shall use part of that pot on the optimistic side, with the rest in safe haven or unconnected stocks.

One I’ve had some money in for a while , mostly to watch it, is $NAIL, US Housebuilders. Up 10% this week.

 

[Justin Passing]

OK for the week I'll redistribute
The upcoming rate cut in the US means a turn towards "defensive" stocks, which are the ones people support even if they're feeling the pinch.
Healthcare, comms, financial service, real estate, food, pet suppliers.... Quality stock become popular, particularly dividend stocks.
I expect bitcoin will rally somewhat, but having to stay in it for a week makes that a tricky one .
Middle East situation is more likely to increase than decrease Oil prices.
There is scope for growth in the UK,with housebuilders amongst others (Costain, Persimmon) and possibly Switzerland.
US ones have been doing well.
Lloyds and Barclays are cheap
Gold and particularly silver are getting buyers

Someof those may not move this week
Not defensive enough yet, maybe.

The elephant, no, blue whale in the room continues to be NVIDA and their earnings. The COE Jensen Huang will be giving a talk about their latest blackwell chip, which is going to push the price

OK I will stick with NVIDIA3, with a trailing ATR stoploss set to about 4 -6%. (depends on wicks at time of opening) If they do dip a bit, I think they'll come back, so I'll hold for the coming weeks.
If they have good sales but with something which makes the price twitch, TSMC who make the chips should still be happy, so I'll have some of that.

Who else? I'll split betwen NAIL (US houdebuilders)
Others I like are CHWY,DELL, Salesforce, a few others. But they don't have a leveraged version.
Leveraged stocks can crash hard, but a stop loss usually catches them.
I'll apply a staring stoploss and the trailing one, so if something starts in the wrong direction it's stopped earlier than 5%, say 1%.

Out of Japan now.
Nvidia NVD3 60%
Taiwan Semi 3TSM 10% Starting 310
S&P 500 x 5 5 SPY 10% starting 251
Chips SOXL (Italy euros) starting 10% 12.7
Nail 10% 156.9

40% up in 2 weeks, maybe I should go to the beach now, instead?

Week	Tkr	Wt%	Tsow	Teow	£sow	£eow	Δ%	£val	val %
0 (wk33)								£1,000​
	3NVD	67%​	3000​	4464​	£667​	£900​	53.75%​
	JPN3	33%​	800​	919​	£333​	£386​	16%​
								£1,286​	128.6​
1 (wk34)								£1,286​
	3NVD	67%​	4464​	4874​	£900​	£981​	9%​
	JPN3	33%​	919​	992​	£386​	£417​	8%​
								£1,398​	139.8​
2 (wk35)								£1,398​
	3NVD	60%​	4464​		£838​		%
	3TSM	10%​	310​		£140​
	5SPY	10%​	251​		£140​
	SOXL	10%​	12.7​		£140​
	NAIL	10%​	156.9​		£140​

 

[Arbu]

When you say the upcoming rate cut means a turn to defensive stocks, presumably you mean that it's an indication of a weakening economy which means a turn to defensive stocks, rather than that it will have this effect itself?

Hope your nvidia trade didn't get stopped out.

I was too busy to look at this over the weekend, but had time today. I've decided to go long on citibank and US treasuries. nvidia seems to be flattening out, so I've gone short on it. Plus it doesn't seem to be a defensive stock to me. All with a trailing stop about 3% away.

 

[Justin Passing]

Those prices I put in the table are/will be wrong, in that the market for the ETFs was closed today so I couldn't buy. No stops function when the market's closed either. I'll actually be watching on the NVDA results day, so it's unusual.

It's the volatility and uncertainty which turns people to defensive stocks. Most sensible people won't go anywhere near the actual results time.
More often than not, but not 100%, I've found it possible to play the results. If there's a big spike and the girl on TTV is hollering that it was a great report, you can buy and get some of the ongoing momentum. If it's a bot overreacting, she hollers something to indicate it and the price comes back so you can often grab it in the excursion and profit from the return.
I wouldn't do it with 5 figures but it's fun with a smaller amount. I did lose 20% on something but that was a long time ago.

Today and yesterday weren't too hard, plenty of things were trending or bouncing off levels.

I'm holding a bunch of UK housebuilders with moderate amounts. Barrat bought one of the others so a lump of Barrat shares arrived. Haven't got to the bottom of it yet. I'm pretty sure the platform cocked the amount up!.


I'm long US regional banks, there's an etf for that.

It's quite possible all those tech trades will get stopped out this week, but 5% or maybe a bit more after rthe previous weeks won't hurt too much.

 

[Arbu]

Citigroup trade stopped out already. I can't even understand why. The price went nowhere near the closing price. Maybe IG can just widen the spread and do this if they want.

TextDate	MarketName	ProfitAndLoss	Open level	Close level	Size	PL Amount	DateUtc	OpenDateUtc
26/08/2024​	Citigroup Inc (All Sessions)	-£360.00​	6194​	6014​	2​	-360​	2024-08-26T21:34:14	2024-08-26T19:49:24

 

[Justin Passing]

Citigroup trade stopped out already. I can't even understand why. The price went nowhere near the closing price. Maybe IG can just widen the spread and do this if they want.

TextDate	MarketName	ProfitAndLoss	Open level	Close level	Size	PL Amount	DateUtc	OpenDateUtc
26/08/2024​	Citigroup Inc (All Sessions)	-£360.00​	6194​	6014​	2​	-360​	2024-08-26T21:34:14	2024-08-26T19:49:24

Oh so IG do it too!
I don't see that evel on my chart either. It's worth complaining to see what their standard reply is. T212 are obdurate, ignorant and just don't answer.
The solution, is an ATR or Moving Average stop. Can you get those on IG?
The guy Neal on TTV is very sensitive to the Chinese doing it overtly. PDD had one yesterday.
Have you noticed that if things are quiet, you can enter with £1000 - a tiny amount, and the price moves to make you pay a bit more then comes back. I don't know who does that.
On Trading 212 you can watch a price move from 99 to 100 over half an hour, but somewhere in there you were stopped out at 95. I have screengrabs and videos of that happening. It's like there a buckshot spread of prices and you only see the average, unless one pellet stops you out. I have had it the other way, but not so often. You buy at market which is moving slowly at about 100, and you get a fill at 95. One was so wide the other day I didn't believe it, so I sold immediately and made 5%. That's a lot.
YOu will know what happens if you leave a buy order at open without a limit - you pay 10% too much on an invisible wick.

I constantly try to give up with routine stop-losses in general. On a day a stock is likely to have a bit of a hump so a higher limit price is fairly likely to get hit a percent or so above. Not much good when the transaction fee swallows it.

No stops on Chinese ETFs any time, you will lose.

The (Donchian) channel approach works, but you have to get alerts you can use to do the trades. Easy as hell to sell on a stop loss and NOT rebuy at the bottom. NVD3 is like that, you really have to watch the timing.
Right now, pre US market but not much, 3NVD is 4677. I want to hold it through earnings landing, but it could dip more than the 12% Donch channel width in the interim.
Edit: Then, 3NVD was dropping. I'm allergic to buying when the price is dropping. At US market open the price was rising, so a buy. at 4500. 3TSM 285.
Hmmm.

 

[Arbu]

No ATR or moving average stop losses on IG. Only normal, guaranteed, and trailing. You set a step on the trailing one. I don't understand that.

 

[Justin Passing]

You set a step on the trailing one. I don't understand that.

That must be the distance in $ under the price as it rises (or above/falls).
They have to be annoyingly far not to be caught by a wick.
I quite often (relativelly) put them on Japanese stocks which look like they might run, overnight. Ok for currency pairs too.

#Investing
I'm looking around for something to use for an account of my wife's. She doesn't like dips. . India will probably pick up where it left off but it would still get hit in a big crash. Away from stocks, in the past 6 or 3 months gold has done best, but though it may well head on to 3000, if all gets happy in tech world, it'll drop.
Some of the corp bonds are still returning about 30%pa, and some REITs are shooting up.

Apple could be a good buy about now, it's at the 200 MA. That doesn't happen very often. I think they have another "event" coming up which was a monster last time. At the mo they don't have a Large Language AI product in their range. They have a history of coming to the market a bit late but with a very good product. They don't have to be much better foi us to be able to say "Ok Apple here's £100k, trade it on the stock market (or the FX market) until it's £1m. Should only take a week.

Those other entry points
3spy 1285; soxl 12.05; Nail14.57.