Stock market dealing

[Justin Passing]

Out today so thought 5TLT. It was dropping which I thought was odd. Bought when it turned up, missed the bottom, got 750. I was busy so just put the pot into it and left it until the alarm at 4. It was dropping so sold then. It went higher, but shouldn't be greedy. Most of my dosh is in bonds as I've said. I wish they'd copied....
All the bits and pieces of shares I hold dropped I think, apart from tesco, which is going flat now. The REITs are still +ve. SOHO is doing OK - Social Housing.
Now, is tech going to rally do you think? . Weptember was carp last year. Need to check what held up.
All very well to say rotate to a sector other than tech but they just don't go down as much in these times.. Bonds for a while then.
Not many green sectors in the UK.

 

[Arbu]

I think tech will rally since, as you say p/e is not impossibly high, and it seems as if US rates are going to fall. But also, AI feels a bit like the dotcom bubble. Lots of companies seem to be buying these chips to get in on AI, but why? Because there are now services like ChatGPT which you can ask questions of? It seems a bit overblown to me, and I question how much AI will really change things. So I think tech will rally short term, but fall back longer term. Closed my nvidia trade, forex trades still open.

 

[Justin Passing]

Winkling out US cos where the tech benefits from AI has worked but the whole market is easily pumped or spooked on very little. I expect it'll be choppy until after their election. Perhaps bitcoin will get back into fashion.

There certainly are cos where the large language interface increases productivity enormously.
AI itself has been around for many years, so if you want to use a computer to correlate which gene/epigenetic modifier combinations correlate with over xx% confidence to a specific disease, then it's business as usual, only faster as time goes by.
Some UK stocks eg builders like Bellway and Persimmon are expected to do very well but probably not until contracts start getting awarded, maybe a few months.
Since our election mine gained 22% or so but fell back a couple so I sold. I have £10 worth so I see the changes. I have a lot like that ..

RR is odd. It could explode upwards again.

For me it's a case of finding something which is moving right now. But cash takes days to come out of "funds", so I'm keeping a fair % in cash, so the buying is quick. If one rings the broker early in the day it gets bought that day, otherwise it can be the next, or for some, the next day after that.
Real estate is doing well, but how long for??

India continues to be a money printer. It's up about 4% in the last month. If you find a sector which has beaten it on the past few months let me know!

 

[Justin Passing]

ECB rate cut this week. Research needed, to see what happened last time.
I worte more but deleted by mistake. A "being careful" week.

 

[Arbu]

RR is odd. It could explode upwards again.

Both Cathay and the EU investigating it. Analysts' views very positive so maybe everyone who would be in it already is. Making lower highs repeatedly last week. So I've sold it.

 

[Justin Passing]

The fuel hose thing doesn't appear to have come to much. I sold it when it got to p[revious high mid August. For months I had a failry modest amount sitting in 3LRR. It multiplied by several, over the period, then stopped. Their engines are good and the talk of modular nuclear reactors was attractive. I don't know what heppened next.


Those AI users are doing well - Pltr, Now, Oracle.
Speaking of which I have some buns in the Japanese oven right now, and Oracle has gone up 2%. That'll do, trailing stop on.
The spreads can be wide but the behaviour often quite predictable. They can all do much the same, like a plane taking off steeply then stalling.

 

[Arbu]

Decided to buy nvidia as it seems to be in an upward trend this week, and the lower interest rate climate should help it.

 

[Arbu]

The upcoming rate cut in the US means a turn towards "defensive" stocks, which are the ones people support even if they're feeling the pinch.
... financial service.... Quality stock become popular, particularly dividend stocks.

Financial service companies could mean a lot of things. But a google search brings up the big banks. And banks are usually considered to make lower profits when rates are low. So not sure why you said this?

 

[Justin Passing]

FInancial services - banks, Ins cos etc, all that. An alternative to the usual "Big tech" earning stocks.
EG US Financial sector stocks have done OK I think. They money has to go somewhere.

 

[Arbu]

FInancial services - banks, Ins cos etc, all that. An alternative to the usual "Big tech" earning stocks.
EG US Financial sector stocks have done OK I think. They money has to go somewhere.

No, they are broadly down since Jackson Hole when Powell raised the issue of rate cuts.
The money goes into bonds when there are rate cuts. And into most stocks, but not bank stocks.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/an...anges-affect-profitability-banking-sector.asp

Are Higher Interest Rates Good for Stocks?​

Generally, higher interest rates are bad for most stocks. A big exception is bank stocks, which thrive when rates rise. For everybody else, it's a delicate balancing act. Interest rates rise because the economy is booming. But increasing interest rates make businesses and consumers more cautious about borrowing money.

 

[Justin Passing]

The "rotation" is not so much interest rate driven right now, it's the drop in the overpriced tech sector.

Finance is one of those given as a defensive sector, which is why I quoted it. I didn't make it up! . I assume that's because it doesn't get hit like others like Discretionary. People still need banks like they need food.... even if the economy or tech sector gets hit.

KRE was doing OK at one time. It's a balance for the banks I believe, when rates are lower they can lend more, and more smaller businesses can pop up and do business with them. So it depends which side wins. Uncle Warren sold most of his B of A!
It's one of the "norms" I've heard described as not obeying the traditional rules very well this time, but I haven't followed it.
It's Bloomberg speakers I'm going by. Some of them are a bit odd.
Comment here https://seekingalpha.com/article/47...formance-potential-but-absolute-is-a-question

Real estate is top at the mo, though gold has bounced up, and down. My remaining tech holdings have been bad so I sold yesterday. I thought I'd given it long enough to start recovering. A day out!

Bloomberg was on about how banks do a far smaller percentage of lending than they used to, for mortgages particularly. Something like a quarter - third.

 

[Arbu]

Uncle Warren sold most of his B of A!

That makes me want to buy B of A, it was even in the Daily Mail, so the move must have happened by now. But that conflicts with my overall thinking on banks and low interest rates, so I'll pass on it for now.

Ideas of rate cuts have gone off the boil a bit with yesterday's inflation figures being no lower than in line with expectations. I think they will come back into focus today with the EU decision.

 

[Justin Passing]

EU rate is all accounted-in I think.

Just found some REITs are even more interesting than their index.
One called SABRA , SBRA, Healtcare

Depends what you have on your savings platform. Do you use IG for everything?

TIL was interesting today. It has been running for 3 days steadily so I got a few k.
There was a short squeeze - it doubled +. Lucky to catch it v near the top. Nice rare surprise.
Worth another look tomorrow, as is WOOF.

 

[Arbu]

Well, the dollar basket has weakened quite a bit since the EU rate decision, like I thought. I think people are getting a bit overexcited now, with the idea of a 50bp cut, so maybe it will strengthen again from now.

My savings are in a Chase saver at 4.85%. Is that a savings platform?

The trend on WOOF is not very clear to me today so I'll leave that.

Selling some £ and some nvidia over the weekend.

 

[Odds]

For Gammon advice on UK stocks, click the link.