Stock market dealing

[Justin Passing]

The funny thing is, I do actually make money gambling on sports. Bookies are always closing my accounts down. That's what draws me to this. My sports betting is just arbitraging, not based on any knowledge of the sports in question. But with the financial markets I don't have arbitrage opportunities, so I end up trading based on fundamentals. And it doesn't work. And it seems to me that that's how people make money on the financial markets - not on forming an educated assessment based on all the relevant factors, but on testing and testing for numerical patterns that repeat in the markets. It must be very computationally intensive, and also very boring.

What are these 10+% bonds anyway?

How do you do the sports thing? £:1 on City and 3:1 on United?

The "carry trade" is arbitrage. I don't know how the mechanics work, eg how do I borrow money in Japan?

INvesting in fundamantals probably works over the long term, as long as you take everything else into account as well. It's the Warren B approach after all.

Early on I think you said Technical analysis (chart patterns) wasn't something you used. It definitely does work, though. Michael Nauss of Trade Ideas/Statsedge Trading is always saying he doesn't know what companies do, he ONLY uses chart patterns and price action. Range trading, trend/momentum trading and using levels is nothing whatsoever to do with the quality of the company.
MN doesn't even look at catalysts, Accumulation /distribution are really useful but nothing to do with the company.
He predicted the rise the other day of around 7% rise in Natural Gas, perely from charts.

He was "bullishon gold" way beack when yo expected the change by teaa time, but we're seeing it now. His Cup and Handle structure is years long, and we're getting the outcome now.
It becomes self-fulfilling, quite often.

If your aim is to make money, it's not boring. Taking 5 figures to 7 isn't boring. Football teams are boring as hell to me.

"What are these 10+% bonds anyway?"
??
Look at a screener!
There's one a few posts back, the orange line, 28% in a year.. Look at Convertible bonds - many have given over 20% overall.
Vanguard USD Corp Bond is up 7+% since May.
They do vary, you do have to use some thinking.

 

[Arbu]

Arbitrage between bookmakers and betting exchanges. It takes some time to find the arbitrage opportunities, but they do arise. As I said, I don't know anything about football teams.

Yes, MN was right on gold, although I don't really trust him with his fake window background that he places in his videos.

I suppose I should be looking at things longer term. But that's the antithesis of what tradertv does, so watching that was not helpful at all.

You're being disingenuous about bonds. You're saying to just put money into a 10% bond, like a savings bond. But no such bond exists. What you mean is that I should have put the money into bonds, which have done well this year as interest rates have been declining. You seem to want to make it sound much easier than it is.

 

[Justin Passing]

You're being disingenuous about bonds.

No, you're choosing to misunderstand, again.

You're saying to just put money into a 10% bond, like a savings bond.

No I'm not, you made that up. I wrote nothing about "savings". Would you stop lying about what I said please?
If you don't know what a bond is, go to Investopedia.

You seem to want to make it sound much easier than it is.

Go to a fund screener.
Type in "bond". Pick one which has been running at a decent rate.
Poke around the similarly named ones. Sometimes they have other words in, like Corporate, or Strategic, or Active, or Dynamic, Fund..
How much easier do you want it?
I have already given names of such things which have been running long enough. You asked a couple of posts ago and I referred you to one a couple of posts before that.
What's the problem -it doesn't have a name which I never mentioned but you thought it might have done????

Yet another one you can find - but you need to do your own homework. That way you're less likely to say something wrong about it just to call me a liar again.

25% pa for 18 months looks respectable wouldn't you say?
Where's the disingenuous?
Why the accusation? Again?
Are you going to complain that if you'd bought in at Oct 1st 2023 it would have been flat for a bit? Dang, only 28% since then...

Lots of boring things beat 10%. S & P 500 Utilities sector. 22% or something, more if you use something else while it's retracing.

Insurance. Boring boring.

Work out 19.11/11.
OK you're lazy , it's 73.7% in a year.
Sell at the top pinky line and buy again on red, or green. Buy more at black.
If you want, buy when it has left pink but is going north again.
While you're waiting, switch to the previous chart.
Doing that gets you over 100% because you get tmost of the rises and few of the dips.

Presumably ever since the Chinese said they were going to rearrange things you're up a lot.
I was a bit late, buying kwe3 at about 19 rather than say 16 when I should have but it's at 42 now.
Note volume is reduced so it'll slow down, be ready for a reverse.

 

[Justin Passing]

All eyes East. China market has risen so much there's scepticism, but their futures are up, so I'm hlding a big lump there.
Gold slipping, maybe only until Israel bombs Iran...
Tesco going to rocket, again. Sainsbury's will be pulled up with it....

 

[Arbu]

It's always a bad time of year so just take the 20% pa sort of bond.

This is what you said. There are no bonds paying that, except maybe junk ones. There are funds investing in bonds that have done that well over the last year, but that is something different. I can't see those on IG. All I can see there are bond futures, for which the charts only go back about a month. They have all been coming down in the last two weeks. So let's suppose I take my money out of my savings account at 5% and put it into Man GLG Sterling Corporate Bond Fund Professional Acc C which is currently at 126.6. Never mind that I'm sure it would take me quite a bit of time to get it all set up and the funds transferred. Let's see how it is at the end of the year.

 

[Justin Passing]

There are no bonds paying that, except maybe junk ones.

I cited one.
I said bonds, not savings or anything other type.
The are not "someting different", because I only said bonds, which as I said also go under other names.
Just because your preconception is wrong, doesn't make me wrong, does it?
Any you choose are your responsibility to investigate.
You need to find out for yourself, especially with things like Convertible bonds.
"Junk" bonds, anyway, aren't necessarily terrible things at all, they're just loans to other than governments etc. They're graded.
Nothing to do with savings bonds which you said I said. More stable than shares, very often.

You can judge their performance reliability from the history. If they've been good enough for the last 3,6,12 18 or whatever months, you have a guide.
I wouldn't expect a great range on IG.
Try IE.

For dog's sake stop attacking and trying to nit pick what I write. If I say there are bonds paying 20% then there ARE. I show you a graph of one which is pretty smooth for 18 months, over 25% and you're still carping.

You'll have to find that one yourself because though I find it ok, if you use it you'll find something to moan about and blame me!
I use another one with it, same rate for the last 9 months or so. Oddly, many go flat in the first weeks of October.
A few minutes googling will find a sector which usually does better.

Never mind that I'm sure it would take me quite a bit of time to get it all set up and the funds transferred.

Quite a lot of minutes, sure.