War Is Brewing.

[cwhaley]

Does "full scale" mean invasion and occupation of the whole country? Up to the Polish border?

Yes -- conquest of the entire country and capturing the capital is what I define as a mass invasion. It's something which is suggested as a scenario every day in the media.

Previous incursions have been limited in their scope and scale, as we have seen. Large numbers of those in the extreme east (currently occupied) are pro-Russian hence why the conflict still rumbles on. If Putin does anything, it will involve taking the currently occupied areas and possibly linking Crimea to Russia proper. I don't think he will though.

Now the terminology is clear, I reiterate that there will be no mass invasion.

 

[JohnD]

now the terminology is clear, I reiterate that there will be no mass invasion.

but you don't rule out an invasion.

Even when Putin's predecessor invaded Poland in 1939, he only occupied half the country

 

[cwhaley]

but you don't rule out an invasion.

Even when Putin's predecessor invaded Poland in 1939, he only occupied half the country

True, but there had been an agreement between two major powers to conquer the whole of Poland. Russia faces a wall of defiant unity against such action and who else would share the other half? Belarus? There's just so little to suggest the complete annexation of Ukraine is a goal. Any parallels between 1933-39 and 2014-22 aren't really there.

I don't rule out an invasion, no. Anything we do see is likely to be as I suggested and limited to the east.

 

[ajohn]

t's something which is suggested as a scenario every day in the media.

As suggested by certain parties - reporting what is being said in other words. Most know which parties are pushing this aspect. I'd hope some do anyway.

The use of "the Ukraine", is officially deprecated by the Ukrainian government and many English language media publications. Ukraine (Україна) is the official full name of the country, as stated in the Ukrainian Declaration of Independence and Constitution; there is no official alternative long name.

Me I will currently carry on using it for certain reasons. Mostly as it's an area that has certain problems.

 

[Harry Bloomfield]

but you don't rule out an invasion.

Even when Putin's predecessor invaded Poland in 1939, he only occupied half the country

Gentlemens prace your bets..

 

[cwhaley]

Tough call...

First of all no conquering of Ukraine by either side. That I will put my virtual money on.

Secondly, I think Russia and NATO will reach some form of agreement for the good of both sides. Putin has already agreed to more talks in a couple of weeks' time and I think they could yield some success. I can't see the reason for another stalling tactic especially as the Olympics (which start a week tomorrow) offer a prime opportunity.

My ultimate prediction? Eventual annexation of the SE region of Ukraine either peacefully or forcefully. When that happens I'm not sure, but I don't think it'll become anything like the potential conflict suggested in the media.

 

[transam]

I reckon it will kick off big time

than after a while it will escalate into a full nuclear exchange

Do not ask for whom the bell tolls , it tolls for us

In it fair I have things I want to do / achieve

kin Russians

 

[Deleted member 18243]

Zźzzzzzz.

Meanwhile the real threats grow. China, Islam, and the number one biggest threat to the safety of the British population. ..the British government

 

[ajohn]

It could go in all sorts of directions. Biden made an odd noise

(CNN)President Joe Biden on Wednesday predicted Russia "will move in" to Ukraine, citing existential concerns by the country's president, Vladimir Putin, even as he acknowledged disunity within NATO over how to respond to a "minor incursion."
The candid assessment laid bare the struggle Biden faces in creating meaningful consequences and deterrents for Moscow, which remains closely intertwined economically with the United States' top European partners.
The remark elicited near-immediate outcry in Kyiv, where officials have been meeting with Biden's top diplomat as Russian troops amass on the country's border. High-level attempts to clean-up the comment soon followed at the White House.

It could be seen as a get out if there is a bit of an invasion. So say Russia feels that they just have to take some of it over, end result sanctions. Some EU countries wouldn't be happy with that just as they were not with the ones against Iran. However the USA got what it wanted - sanctions.

Could international politics be that dirty?

 

[fillyboy]

Could international politics be that dirty?

Yes. Makes a birthday cake and a glass of wine look a little trivial doesn't it.

 

[fillyboy]

True, but there had been an agreement between two major powers to conquer the whole of Poland. Russia faces a wall of defiant unity against such action and who else would share the other half? Belarus?

Germany?, some in Kiev seem to thing Germany are colluding with Russia claiming Putin was only waiting for the pipeline to Germany to be completed before making his move. The Germans are most definitely not part your 'wall of defiant unity against invasion', they've got too much to lose, and are very vocal in opposing extreme sanctions, and whilst some of 'us' are sending weapons to Ukraine to help them defend themselves, Germany are doing everything in their power to block these weapons, including closing their airspace to UK planes carrying the arms.

Sneaky buggers as well, bombed my mums house.

 

[JohnD]

Germany, for good historical reasons, tries hard to avoid military action in foreign countries, or aiding warring factions with arms sales.

This has been the case for over 75 years.

It is not, as you attempt to suggest, encouraging or assisting Putin's invasion of nearby countries.

 

[The Samaritan]

Many armchair warriors around.

 

[transam]

The Germans cannot be trusted in this situation

best to keep em
Out the loop as they would feed any info to the Russians

 

[transam]

Same goes for the French