When considering in or out:

[Deleted member 63160]

Some of the polls are showing Brexit taking the lead by several %. Exciting times.

 

[Gerrydelasel]

I imagine the outists are shifting all their spare cash out of sterling and into dollars and krugerrands.

Anything but Euros!

 

[Himaginn]

I imagine the outists are shifting all their spare cash out of sterling and into dollars and krugerrands.

Anything but Euros!

That would be silly because the pound will fall in the case of Brexit.
So change your money into Euros now, while the pound is relatively stronger, and change it back into pounds after a Brexit when the pound will be so much weaker, and you'll get loads more pounds than you started with.

Of course if the result is to remain, the pound will gain all its recently lost value, and if you change your euros back into pounds you'll end up with far less than you started with.

The same principle applies with all currencies.
Brexit will weaken the pound much further and Remain will strengthen the pound. So whichever currency you choose, the result will determine whether you win or lose money.

 

[Himaginn]

and if we vote leave, the stock market will go down, so I'll invest in it.

You'll be daft to invest in a weaker pound, reducing economy, financial services moving abroad.

 

[Gerrydelasel]

the pound will gain all its recently lost value

Pound has been dropping since well before the referendum was called, but in fact has strengthened a bit since March. Yellen's comments also suggest Britain would be stronger outside the EU, at the expense of the US. So much for fear of Brexit...
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1Y

 

[Himaginn]

And in true remain twist the facts style,

Even USA is waiting until UK referendum result to decide whether to raise the base rate or not.
They're worried that Brexit will adversely affect US economy:

In a speech on Monday, she actually said "Brexit was ONE factor that the central bank would consider when deciding whether to raise interest rates."

I think you're rather reading something into my quote which wasn't there.
However the headline was:

Janet Yellen warns of Brexit hit to US economy

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36463819
Perhaps you'll transfer your accusation of twisting the facts to the BBC and apologise to me for your inappropriate accusation?
I could paste the whole article showing how other US economists are concerned, but people can read the article for themselves and observe your inappropriate accusation of me twisting the facts!
I will paste this little bit:

That meeting will be held after the EU referendum on 23 June - giving the Fed an opportunity to assess the vote's impact on global markets.

Some economists have warned that a Brexit could adversely impact the US economy.

Indeed it is you trying to minimise the genuine concerns of US Federal Reserve Chair and other US economists.

 

[Himaginn]

the pound will gain all its recently lost value

Pound has been dropping since well before the referendum was called, but in fact has strengthened a bit since March. So much for fear of Brexit.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1Y

Of course, the money markets knew the referendum was on its way. It didn't know the date that would be set. It knew it was on its way since May 2015.
The whole financial market has taken a dive because of the referendum.
It does strengthen and weaken a bit with the polls forecasting the results. Brexit forecast and it dives, remain forecast and it strengthens a bit.

 

[Doggit]

Which on the basis of the pols taken during the General election

Even USA is waiting until UK referendum result to decide whether to raise the base rate or not.
They're worried that Brexit will adversely affect US economy:

Sorry Himmy, If you re-read the statement you made, you will see that you twisted the article, not the BBC. Yellen said that a Brexit would affect the USA economy, but didn't link Brexit to the decision to raise the Fed rate, only that it was one of the factors

You'll be daft to invest in a weaker pound, reducing economy, financial services moving abroad.

And if you reread my comment, I said I'd invest in the stock market, not the pound. And IF financial services moved overseas, I'd just be paying dealing charges in Euros instead of sterling, but the stock market would still move back up over time, no matter where the financial services are based.

 

[Himaginn]

Which on the basis of the pols taken during the General election

Even USA is waiting until UK referendum result to decide whether to raise the base rate or not.
They're worried that Brexit will adversely affect US economy:

Sorry Himmy, If you re-read the statement you made, you will see that you twisted the article, not the BBC. Yellen said that a Brexit would affect the USA economy, but didn't link Brexit to the decision to raise the Fed rate, only that it was one of the factors

If the Fed does not increase interest rates at its upcoming meeting, its next opportunity will come in July. That meeting will be held after the EU referendum on 23 June - giving the Fed an opportunity to assess the vote's impact on global markets.

What's this I see? The Fed is waiting to see what the impact of our referendum result will have. It will help determine it's fiscal policy.

You'll be daft to invest in a weaker pound, reducing economy, financial services moving abroad.

And if you reread my comment, I said I'd invest in the stock market, not the pound. And IF financial services moved overseas, I'd just be paying dealing charges in Euros instead of sterling, but the stock market would still move back up over time, no matter where the financial services are based.

Sorry, yes, my comment was more applicable to John's and Gerry's "investing in other currencies." comment.
However my comments still apply, investing in any currency is a short-term gamble on the result of the referendum.

Investing in the stock market is, imo, like yours, a reasonable investment on a long term scale.
So my apologies for using your quote instead of Gerry's. I didn't think it was so important. And I don't have time to go into a long-winded discussion about the benefits or dangers of investing into the stock market right now.
Plus I'd expect you to pay for such advice.

 

[Doggit]

I agree with you completely Himmy, Currency speculation is for the big boys, or those with inside information; absolutely no good for Joe public. But I've financed my last 2 cars through stock market investments, and only gone wrong once, so not too bad. But it's getting a lot harder to pick good stocks, so a managed fund might be my next bet.

 

[Himaginn]

Hargreaves Lansdown's Brexit implications:
https://www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/...amFtZXMuYWphbWVzLmFuZHJldzYxMEBnbWFpbC5jb20S1

 

[EFLImpudence]

"In the event of a Brexit the vast majority of respondents expect sterling to finish 2016 at below €1.30, with 40% viewing a steeper drop to less than €1.20 as likely. The pound is expected to fare better in the event of a Remain vote. Our survey shows opinion is equally divided over whether sterling would end the year above or below €1.30 should the UK stay in the EU."

That's that settled, then.

 

[Himaginn]

"In the event of a Brexit the vast majority of respondents expect sterling to finish 2016 at below €1.30, with 40% viewing a steeper drop to less than €1.20 as likely. The pound is expected to fare better in the event of a Remain vote. Our survey shows opinion is equally divided over whether sterling would end the year above or below €1.30 should the UK stay in the EU."

That's that settled, then.

It seems pretty straight forward to me.
In the event of Brexit, the vast majority believe sterling will fall below €1.30, with some 40% predicting below €1.20 (So shall we assume a mean of about €1.24?
In the event of Remain, there's discussion about whether sterling will finish above or below €1.30. (So shall we assume about €1.30?)
There's an unwritten assumption it won't go anywhere near €1.20

 

[JohnD]

John's and Gerry's "investing in other currencies." comment.

I said nothing about investing in other currencies.

I did however mention moving spare cash out of sterling, to protect against losses due to its devaluation.

 

[Deleted member 63160]

John's and Gerry's "investing in other currencies." comment.

I said nothing about investing in other currencies.

I did however mention moving spare cash out of sterling, to protect against losses due to its devaluation.

Kinell...Himmi's even bulling about your posts!!