Big Numbers today

[ellal]

It would it seems be dependent on the recording system used.
Turns out that a relative that died abroad had signs of the virus but died of other expected causes.
So it is not being recorded as virus related, since the chances are that it was caught after going into hospital as the few people who had been in contact have been tested as negative.
Different countries do it differently I guess.

 

[Munroast]

I think it is more like 3% of those admitted to hospital succumb, and bearing in mind you have to be seriously ill before being admitted to hospital. I think the suggestion from the cmo that each death probably suggested 1000 cases is probably more realistic. giving a 0.1% death rate. source

 

[ajohn]

I think it is more like 3% of those admitted to hospital succumb, and bearing in mind you have to be seriously ill before being admitted to hospital. I think the suggestion from the cmo that each death probably suggested 1000 cases is probably more realistic. giving a 0.1% death rate. source

Copy pasted from https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

41,903 cases
4,313 deaths

So for hospital entries 10% is currently realistic. The number of 70+ in that should be reduced from what it could be.

Trying to get a total across the population is tricky. No one knows how many people have caught it and not needed to go to hospital. The fact that social distancing and lock downs limit the spread and keep the peak down indicates that more people who haven't caught it could still catch it otherwise there would be no point in having them. The ideal is to reduce 1 person infecting 2 to 3 people down to 1 to 1 or better. The 1 infecting 2 to 3 others is used for modelling

China's population is enormous, 1.36 billion and they used area lock downs effectively. S Korea is similar to the UK but used a different method of controlling it. As did China and Singapore. This suggests that they "probably" have a higher proportion of people that haven't caught it. That brings death rates down. The UK is likely to be similar to other European countries who also currently don't know how many have caught it.

I have an attitude that there is no point in worrying about something I can do nothing about. It's being a bit pushed at the moment.

 

[motorbiking]

Finally it looks like we may be catching a break, though its too soon to tell. 439 deaths.

 

[Notch7]

What is confusing is that they talk about the 'number of deaths', that isnt the number that died on that day, but the number of deaths reported on that day, which probably happened 4 or 5 days or so earlier.

Im not sure if the deaths recorded are hospital ones or now include the wider community.

it would be very good if the figure of 439 is an indication of a slow down rather than a blip.

 

[Munroast]

I don't know what to make of it, Scotland only reported 2 deaths yesterday and a further 2 deaths today (we have been running at about 50 per day) Apparently there is not the systems in place on sundays and mondays to add up the figures so we are to expect big numbers on tuesday.
do we need systems to count above two up here?
I'm not entirely sure anyone knows what is really going on.

 

[SirGalahad]

What is confusing is that they talk about the 'number of deaths', that isnt the number that died on that day, but the number of deaths reported on that day, which probably happened 4 or 5 days or so earlier.

Im not sure if the deaths recorded are hospital ones or now include the wider community.

it would be very good if the figure of 439 is an indication of a slow down rather than a blip.

Only Hospital deaths. ONS will produce weekly report including deaths not at hospitals.

 

[motorbiking]

As long as it’s consistently flawed we might have a clue. FTSE was up on the back of it.

 

[crystal ball]

In our "Crescent" (la di da) of about 40 dwellings there have been three deaths since Tuesday, all elderly with pre existing, two were in hospital a while before the lockdown etc, maybe coincidence or did CV hurry things along?

 

[Notch7]

In our "Crescent" (la di da)

Crescent eh?

 

[Mottie]

A friends daughter is a doctor in a London hospital. Of 25 on the CV Ward, they only expect 1 to survive. Frightening.

 

[crystal ball]

Crescent eh?

Similar but with conservatories

 

[Munroast]

A friends daughter is a doctor in a London hospital. Of 25 on the CV Ward, they only expect 1 to survive. Frightening.

figures would suggest if you go into an ICU with the virus, only 2 in 3 survive. It's not great odds

 

[ajohn]

There has been some talk that testing as the numbers have gone is now being added to daily cases not just hospital entries followed by some people feeling they should keep it separate. ???? If that's being done on the Public Health England graph we will know less and less of what's going on as the numbers being tested goes up as the graph wont relate to just people who went into hospital any more. Time to recording a death can be 25 days, and a lot of that can be treatment.

 

[Munroast]

There has been some talk that testing as the numbers have gone is now being added to daily cases not just hospital entries followed by some people feeling they should keep it separate. ???? If that's being done on the Public Health England graph we will know less and less of what's going on as the numbers being tested goes up as the graph wont relate to just people who went into hospital any more. Time to recording a death can be 25 days, and a lot of that can be treatment.

this was in a BBC article
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52133054