Covid mortality predictor

[Ihavenojob]

Or perhaps they closed their borders and have been running a strict quarantine process for people from other countries.
https://www.visitmalta.com/en/covid-19

No, I think my theory is more likely.

 

[IT Minion]

No, I think my theory is more likely.

Of course you do, heaven forbid that another country did anything to do with controlling Covid-19 better than us.

It's much simpler to assume that there's a giant conspiracy in government and healthcare to hide deaths from an unknown source as Covid-19 deaths in order to boost Amazon's stock price, implant 5G microchips and bankrupt Pret-a-manger.

 

[EddieM]

Personally I feel that whilst not absolving the government of the mistakes made, the majority of the problem lies with the general publics behaviour.

 

[Trazor]

Personally I feel that whilst not absolving the government of the mistakes made, the majority of the problem lies with the general publics behaviour.

Yes, the eat out to help out, does not appear in such a good light now..............

 

[EddieM]

Yes, the eat out to help out, does not appear in such a good light now..............

Probably wasn't a good idea, but was there a spike in July and August?

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Personally I feel that whilst not absolving the government of the mistakes made, the majority of the problem lies with the general publics behaviour.

Like closing borders? Closing schools, or opening them, only to close the following week? Lifting lockdown over Xmas/New year?
Introducing lockdown (or not) too late? Insufficient PPE? Insufficient NHS funding? Using lockdown policies such as "don't go out, unless you go out"?
PM demonstrating how not to do it?

Yep, all the public's behavioural fault.

 

[Trazor]

Probably wasn't a good idea, but was there a spike in July and August?

I don't think it caused a spike, but I said, what I said, in Jest.

But your point, over the publics behaviour, I totally agree with, alas, fuelled by a few idiots on here.

 

[EddieM]

Like closing borders? Closing schools, or opening them, only to close the following week? Lifting lockdown over Xmas/New year?
Introducing lockdown (or not) too late? Insufficient PPE? Insufficient NHS funding? Using lockdown policies such as "don't go out, unless you go out"?
PM demonstrating how not to do it?

Yep, all the public's behavioural fault.

How about taking personal responsibility when you know there is a potentially fatal virus in circulation? Far too much blaming of government's, when the advice has been ignored or flouted by so many. Too many folk on one hand criticising government's taking away your rights and simultaneously blaming the government's for not doing enough to protect people.

 

[JP_]

Life expectancy in the UK has already fallen due to obesity, and obesity increases risk of a range of diseases and complications.
Many people are denied surgery until they lose weight as the risk is too great.
Plus obesity leads to diabetes and other chronic health conditions that increase risk during disease.

No real shock really. 12 years ago .... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-flu-obesity-idINN1053710520090711

 

[Ihavenojob]

hide deaths from an unknown source as Covid-19 deaths

A lot of people have complained that relatives deaths have been attributed to covid even though they were covid free. Complacency rather than conspiracy on the governments part.

 

[EFLImpudence]

Well they just did. So yes.

No, they didn't. It might be implied but they didn't say it.

"The report, released ahead of world obesity day on Thursday, did not find a single example of a country where less than 40 per cent of the population was overweight having high death rates.
On the other hand, no country with high death rates — at least 100 per 100,000 — had less than 50 per cent of its population overweight."

Would you confirm that that that means NO thin person has died from covid and that the death rates are proportionate to the obesity rate and only obese people have died.

 

[motorbiking]

- cool damp climate
- diverse population
- major global transport hub
- good flu vaccination program, keeping people alive longer
- obesity & diabetes
- high property costs /density of population
- Covid variants

I don't think much can be blamed on the govt. or individuals.

When you look at the projections, similar European countries come out the same.

With the benefit of hind sight we should have shut Heathrow, or bypassed the trials for AZ - that would have reduced the death toll by about 80,000 or given everyone cancer. who knows.

But with each lockdown.. I thought the govt were over doing it at the time.

 

[Ihavenojob]

- cool damp climate
- diverse population
- major global transport hub
- good flu vaccination program, keeping people alive longer
- obesity & diabetes
- high property costs /density of population
- Covid variants

I don't think much can be blamed on the govt. or individuals.

When you look at the projections, similar European countries come out the same.

True, but some on here seem to get off by slagging off the UK.

 

[Mottie]

Would you confirm that that that means NO thin person has died from covid and that the death rates are proportionate to the obesity rate and only obese people have died.

Of course you can’t say that no more than you can say no non-smokers have died of lung cancer. Our friends child is a junior doctor in St Mary’s in Paddington. She says those in intensive care were predominantly male and overweight.

"The WHO has highlighted NCDs as a risk factor for becoming seriously ill with COVID-19 [1]. Today, the emerging evidence based on experience from other viral infections and new studies suggest that overweight and obesity seem to be risk factors for worse outcomes in those who are infected by COVID-19. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses overwhelmingly show that obesity is associated both with a higher risk for intensive care unit (ICU) admission and poorer outcomes for COVID-19 [2-4]. In the UK, a report flags that out of 10,465 patients critically ill with confirmed COVID-19, 73.7% were living with overweight or obesity [5]. Meanwhile, a report from Italy suggests 99% of deaths have been in patients with pre-existing conditions, including those which are commonly seen in people with obesity such as hypertension, cancer, diabetes and heart diseases. [6] Overweight and obesity also seem to be risk factors for worse outcomes in younger populations (<60 years old), with patients with a body mass index (BMI) between 30 and 34 being twice as likely to be admitted to ICU compared to individuals with a BMI under 30 [7]."



https://www.worldobesity.org/news/obesity-and-covid-19-policy-statement

 

[IT Minion]

No, they didn't. It might be implied but they didn't say it.

"The report, released ahead of world obesity day on Thursday, did not find a single example of a country where less than 40 per cent of the population was overweight having high death rates.
On the other hand, no country with high death rates — at least 100 per 100,000 — had less than 50 per cent of its population overweight."

Would you confirm that that that means NO thin person has died from covid and that the death rates are proportionate to the obesity rate and only obese people have died.

You're not good at reading comprehension are you. Being obese is a well known risk factor for Covid-19. That doesn't mean it's the only risk factor.

So, again, yes it is true there's a correlation between BMI and outcome severity. And the reason we know that is because 'they' have performed various analysis of outcomes for Covid-19 cases.

Do you understand what a risk factor is?

This study is a more abstract one, if you've got lots of deaths then you're also very likely to have high levels of obesity. Although not automatically the other way around. It's probably more telling of national attitudes/characters than anything else.