General Election 4th July

[ajohn]

Grant Shapps is 'fighting hard' to stop Labour gaining a "super majority" as they did in '97 - in other news, the economy is flatlining, although Sunny Sunak insists it's "turned a corner". The Tories blame the rain.

Yes the defence secretary. I think if you look the Tory aren't happy with the MOD - wasted money. Projects. What to do?

Flatlining is a pretty good terms to use over a long period of time while thinking of faster growth due to a larger drop than others had,

Tory voter switch especially to Reform - do they really think that the grass will be greener over their hill?

 

[ajohn]

What are the odds on Sunak's closest adviser who placed a bet on when the election would be declared - chances of remaining in office? He's terribly sorry. It was a silly thing to do. I wonder what the odds on his bet were?

Sunak as a child couldn't have Sky TV. LOL People have to put up with these things and always have.

 

[IT Minion]

He didn't have sky because in the upper/middle social classes of the time having a satellite dish was seen as chavvy.

 

[blup]

What are the odds on Sunak's closest adviser who placed a bet on when the election would be declared - chances of remaining in office? He's terribly sorry. It was a silly thing to do. I wonder what the odds on his bet were?

Sunak as a child couldn't have Sky TV. LOL People have to put up with these things and always have.

A criminal offence to use inside information on a bet. Sunack has kicked the ball into his long grass with an inquiry, instead of saying yes his pps did know. Starmy should be doing more to capitalise on it.

 

[ajohn]

Labour's manifesto is interesting. Some of the pundits are making similar noises but neglecting business feelings on the basic ideas. The reason investment collapsed and flatlined. None of that and no real growth.

Both say we need growth to fix things. That's the biggest laugh about pundit comments. Tory - we'll save £12b via cuts on welfare Last time they did that the numbers didn't appear. Labour relatively small changes to improve things that are well costed. The tax aspects did receive comments and then pundits thought hang on these will be changes via the law. Also more money to HMC to help with avoidance. Business taxation aspects have been shown to not achieve anything even by the Tory. Labour - none of that. They remain as they are.

The other point is some of the stuff the Tory has done wont be changed. That includes the set time for frozen income tax threshold levels. Both will get more money in that way. There are also other things that have already been set in motion.

 

[festive]

Labours pledge...

"
Labour's manifesto has "wealth creation" at its heart, Sir Keir Starmer said at the launch earlier today.

It includes plans to raise £8bn through measures like putting VAT on private school fees and expanding the windfall tax on oil and gas firms.

Wealth creation fkc off.

To start with lets talk about putting VAT on private school fees. I think of many families who are literally sacrificing their own lives to put their kids through private education. Why? Because our government has failed abysmally to improve our 19th century education process. So these people are not classed as the 'wealthy few' the lucky ones who pluck money from trees or 'rich' parents. Makes me puke.

I could for example tell you now about some parents who are now taking out a loan to pay the school fees up front sacrificing moving so they can cover the extra £12k they will lose in VAT. Feeling proud Starmer? Oh you must be, that will teach those rich people.

That in reality is the only thing that will happen. Bet it doesn't on the big co's they will push back and nothing will change.

And no before you start the Tories seem to have completely escaped the national PPI scandal. Noone has been held accountable for example...those crooks are equally as bad.

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committees.parliament.uk

 

[JonathanM]

To start with lets talk about putting VAT on private school fees. I think of many families who are literally sacrificing their own lives to put their kids through private education. Why? Because our government has failed abysmally to improve our 19th century education process. So these people are not classed as the 'wealthy few' the lucky ones who pluck money from trees or 'rich' parents. Makes me puke.

I could for example tell you now about some parents who are now taking out a loan to pay the school fees up front sacrificing moving so they can cover the extra £12k they will lose in VAT. Feeling proud Starmer? Oh you must be, that will teach those rich people.

Private school fees have shot up by more than 20% in real terms in the past fifteen years. Does our main local private school really need new squash courts, new indoor tennis courts, indoor cricket nets, a £1 million pound all weather pitch, a new swimming pool etc. etc. etc.

 

[carmanmemoranda]

Surely if schools are capitalist business and people can't afford the fees they will have to become more competitive, or fail.

No reason at all why private schools should be charities and exempt of vat.

 

[ellal]

Surely if schools are capitalist business and people can't afford the fees they will have to become more competitive, or fail.

No reason at all why private schools should be charities and exempt of vat.

State schools (aka private academies) have to pay VAT...

The reason there is not a level playing field is that the elite want to keep their taxpayer funded advantage!

 

[Andydevon]

good old envy politics from the usual suspects. So do you think the Vat receipts will cover the extra spend on state schools to cover the extra pupils then. remember the state schools everyone says are oversubscribed now. You cannot build a school in months or train new teachers in months.

How many extra school places / new schools / new teachers will be needed in the state sector. Can anyone answer or is this just a manifesto pledge to get the simple-minded votes.

 

[JonathanM]

good old envy politics from the usual suspects. So do you think the Vat receipts will cover the extra spend on state schools to cover the extra pupils then. remember the state schools everyone says are oversubscribed now. You cannot build a school in months or train new teachers in months.

How many extra school places / new schools / new teachers will be needed in the state sector. Can anyone answer or is this just a manifesto pledge to get the simple-minded votes.

How elastic is the demand? Most predicitons are not that many will actually drop out. Private schools fees have gone up a lot in recent years without the number of pupils falling. Largely to pay for luxury facilities. I'd prefer the VAT to be phased in over say four years. I doubt anyone would then notice it. The schools would just have to cut back a bit on some of their more grandiose development plans.

 

[Odds]

So it's come to this...The latest YouGov voting intention survey, conducted 12-13 June, has Reform UK one point ahead of the Conservatives on 19% to 18% - well within the margin of error, but another indication of how far the Tories have fallen since the heady days, four years ago. If you look at the polling tracker via the link it strangely shows voting intentions towards Labour have greatly decreased since the election announcement while the LibDems have soared. Are we on for a rerun of 2010?

 

[noseall]

or is this just a manifesto pledge to get the simple-minded votes.

It's just to get the simple minded votes. Who else have the (failed) Brexers got to turn to. Remind us who were gloating a short while back, when scumbag liar Boris and his bullshítting Bexiteers, were sitting atop their super-majority.

Brexit - a proven pile of shít.

 

[blup]

Schools start

Surely if schools are capitalist business and people can't afford the fees they will have to become more competitive, or fail.

No reason at all why private schools should be charities and exempt of vat.

Schools started out as charities long before the state got involved. Adding VAT is a sop to labour’s left which will have zero impact on state school performance apart from increasing class sizes.

 

[JonathanM]

So it's come to this...The latest YouGov voting intention survey, conducted 12-13 June, has Reform UK one point ahead of the Conservatives on 19% to 18% - well within the margin of error, but another indication of how far the Tories have fallen since the heady days, four years ago. If you look at the polling tracker via the link it strangely shows voting intentions towards Labour have greatly decreased since the election announcement while the LibDems have soared. Are we on for a rerun of 2010?

That is mainly because YouGov changed their methodology. That change dropped Labour from 46% to 40%. Labour have actually fallen a couple of points, though, across almost all pollsters in the past week, and the LibDems have gone up a little bit. Having said all that, I believe something closer to 2010 is much more likely than 1997.