No new petrol or diesel cars by 2040

[JohnW2]

It is only in doubt due to current levels of investment.

Agreed, but that's just the reason/explanation - and doesn't alter the fact that it is very much "in doubt"!

Kind Regards, John

 

[SimonH2]

Don't see why that's a problem. Surely all the solar panels which we paid people to put on their roofs will take up the slack?
I mean - they must surely be useful, or we wouldn't have paid people so much to have them, would we.

I assume that's missing a sarcasm smiley

It is only in doubt due to current levels of investment. If the Chinese can build cities of 10 million plus in a couple of decades and a whole high speed train network, we can build a better power network in 20 years. But it requires investment.

In the case of nuclear power, it requires both massive investment AND the will to do it. At present, too many politicians are still believing the greenwash that renewables will save the day as long as we roll out those rationing devices ... err I mean smart meters. Not to mention there being too many people still believing the "Nukular is bad" mantra without realising that the alternatives are almost certainly a lot worse. When you even find Greenpeace and Fiends of the Earth hippies supporting* nuclear then you know things are changing.

* OK, so maybe not exactly support, but acceptance that it's needed and is better than some of the alternatives (like: keep on burning the uranium laden coal).

 

[SimonH2]

I should probably add that state investment in railways (eg HS2 etc) is justified as "investment in infrastructure". Investment in nuclear power stations is excluded from state coffers for complicated political reasons - I suspect there's an argument about competition with corporate investment - and hence the convoluted mechanism for state aid by way of a guaranteed income from the lecky generated.

 

[davelx]

You haven't bought petrol, but you have bought 'fuel'!
Petrol = 46.7 MJ/kg Density is ~0.75 kg/litre so 35MJ/litre.
@£1.20 per litre including tax that is 29.2MJ/£.
The same amount of energy, but in electrical form = 29.2MJ Electric = 8.1kWh.

Depening on your supplier, if you do all your charging OFF peak on economy 7 that'll cost you 76p. On-peak £1.58.. per litre equivalent. A saving to be had only when your rate is less than 14.8p/kwh. (None of these figures account for the daily standing charge or 5% tax on electric) and that pushes the break-even cost further out of your favour.

But what of CO2? The tariffs above are from SSE, and so it's right to use their own declared 2017 figures for energy mix and emissions. 304kg/MWh = 304g/kw. Therefore for each litre of fuel you DON'T put in your hybrid car, SSE generates on your behalf 2462g of CO2.

Nozzle

Yes. SO WHAT??? Have I made any statements about how much it costs or how environmentally friendly it is? No, I haven't.

The discussion I was responding to was about the need to visit a filling station or find a charging point other than at home. Nothing to do with how green it is, where the power comes from etc., only about the need (or lack of need) for a network of fast charging points similar in size to the current network of petrol stations.

 

[Nozzle]

Yes. SO WHAT??? Have I made any statements about how much it costs or how environmentally friendly it is? No, I haven't.

The discussion I was responding to was about the need to visit a filling station or find a charging point other than at home. Nothing to do with how green it is, where the power comes from etc., only about the need (or lack of need) for a network of fast charging points similar in size to the current network of petrol stations.

Buying a hybrid or electric car IS making a statement, as is not contributing anything to road tax.

Nozzle

 

[JBR]

I think the one thing that puts me off buying an electric car is that I've heard the batteries need replacing after a relatively short time and that the cost of replacement isn't far short of the cost of the car. I don't know how true this is. Perhaps someone can put me straight.

Apologies if this has already been mentioned earlier, but this thread is so long I haven't had time to read through it all!

 

[ericmark]

In my house I can squeeze two cars in the drive, and if garage was not full of junk then a third, mothers house we have access to behind house and long drive so six cars would not be a problem, however in both cases the drive has a narrow entrance and it has been know where we can't get in or out. What we have is a catch 22, one person decides not to use the drive, then neighbour also can't use drive because car parked opposite.

It seems we did not design houses able to take cars off road, but of course many were built years ago. When living in Hong Kong street parking was very limited and in the main if you wanted a car then it would cost more than the rent on ones flat to garage it, however public transport was so good, there was no point in having a car, it was after living in Hong Kong I realised how bad our public transport system is.

The main thing was time the service started and stopped, in Hong Kong I could go for a night out and return by public transport for a few dollars, here come 6 pm and 90% of the buses stop. And once forced to buy a car then unlikely to use bus again.

It needs subsidising for around 10 years to get people using it, once people are using it then it will pay, but from my house to a major shopping centre was 15 miles, daughter found a job in shopping centre, to go there needed one bus, weekly ticket £15, but that service did not run for return, so another bus company ran into local city and yet another to where we live, so two buses to return home, so £45 to get to and from work. This dropped to £20 including the tax and insurance using a car, once bought then she never again used the bus. OK there are other problems with buses, today I need to travel 42 mile, it will take less than 1 hour by car, it will take 3 hours by bus, OK 1 hour by train, but only 12 a day, so will still take around 4 hours to visit dentist by train and 2 hours in the car, in Hong Kong it was actually quicker by MTR and bus than by car.

 

[davelx]

I think the one thing that puts me off buying an electric car is that I've heard the batteries need replacing after a relatively short time and that the cost of replacement isn't far short of the cost of the car. I don't know how true this is. Perhaps someone can put me straight.

Apologies if this has already been mentioned earlier, but this thread is so long I haven't had time to read through it all!

Mine have a 8 year warranty. After that, the cost of replacement is about 1/3 the new price of the car - but quite lot more than the car is currently worth.
So far, after 5 years there is no sign of any deterioration (there are "buffer zones" built in). After which battery technology will have moved on and I'll be changing the car anyway.

 

[ban-all-sheds]

Mine have a 8 year warranty.

Transferable to new owners any number of times in that 8 years?

Any onerous small print with the ulterior motive of reducing the number of warranty claims?

 

[davelx]

Transferable to new owners any number of times in that 8 years?

Any onerous small print with the ulterior motive of reducing the number of warranty claims?

No, but I was aware of that before I bought it and have planned accordingly. The purchase of the vehicle was not for any altruistic reasons. At the time there had been some recurring temporary fuel supply issues - tanker driver strikes, etc, and a plug-in EV with 40m range completely insulated me from these, whilst the onboard generator does away with any "range anxiety". It'll do 340 miles+ on a full charge and a full tank, and no dependency on being able to get a charge.

The small print in the warranty was that the battery capacity was expected to reduce slightly over time, and the warranty only applied if the reductions exceeded the expected norm. Again, I went into this with my eyers open - I read all the small print, twice.

 

[SimonH2]

... and I'll be changing the car anyway.

However, your residual will be massively reduced compared to something without that "expensive ticking bomb". I'd be very wary of buying something that's reliant on a battery that'll cost several times the cost of the car, and is known to have a limited life. I think most people would be much the same - hence the second hand value isn't likely to be much above the level of "cheap enough to scrap it when it dies" level.
Having worked in IT and seen how badly laptop batteries fare in that respect, I'd have some general scepticism over battery life/performance

Mind you, that's not unique to electric/hybrid vehicles though. Most (all ?) modern cars suffer from the "simple problem is uneconomic to repair" issue - SWMBO's previous car got scrapped because an ignition coil pack failed Fixing that wouldn't have been a problem, except that it knackered the cat which made it borderline on economics. So the fact that it needed some patching on the crossmember sealed it's fate. Without the cat we'd still have it.
I don't expect a market popping up in aftermarket batteries - I'm sure the manufacturers will have some tricks in hand to make sure that doesn't happen, plus I doubt that there will be enough people prepared to spend 2x the value of the car on a new battery.

One does have to wonder about the environmental effects of (say) halving the useful life of a car given what goes into making them

 

[davelx]

However, your residual will be massively reduced compared to something without that "expensive ticking bomb".

I've always planned for the residual to be zero on any car I buy - ie I plan to write down the the entire cost. If it's not, that's a bonus.

 

[JohnW2]

I've always planned for the residual to be zero on any car I buy - ie I plan to write down the the entire cost. If it's not, that's a bonus.

Same here (as witness the 20 year-old car I am currently driving) - but with EV the amount being 'written off' over the life of the car is obviously likely to be much greater.

Kind Regards, John

 

[SimonH2]

. with EV the amount being 'written off' over the life of the car is obviously likely to be much greater.

Not only a larger amount, but (I suspect) over a shorter time as well.

It may be interesting to see if a "DIY mechanic" culture grow up around "servicing" batteries. Howtos on taking several batteries apart, testing individual cells, picking matched sets for a string, and assembling the best strings into one usable battery ?
I know similar things were said when electronic engine management came onto the scene - it's a closed box, can't be worked on, etc. I know that has largely turned out to be true - especially with manufacturers deliberately making the ECUs harder and harder to "fiddle with" (and even using laws to restrict servicing to their own franchises, at least in the US, can't see it not spreading this side of the pond) But, there is a distinct subset of car enthusiasts dealing with the black boxes - whether it's tools to work with the standard ones (OBDII interfaces & software) or even complete ECUs

Since I, just like everyone else, don't have a working crystal ball - I guess we'll have to wait and see !

 

[DaveHerns]

If you have a smart meter, could you be charged more for charging a car overnight if the supply got a bit marginal?