Stock market dealing

I won't look them up now - too long ago.
An advantage of the simulator is that you can leave every trade to to see what would have happened. So often though, you'd have been waiting through something you wouldn't want to worry with.
I only hold through a dip if I have confidence in the trend overall, and that it's reasonably steep.
Look hard at the wicks on this meagre uptrend from above:
1722647172681.png


You can tell when the rises are slowing down. Get out then - a bit early maybe but before there's a red. The following top wick or two is hardly any higher in most cases. Then wait until it's gone down, and shown another decent green before you get back in.
If it carries on up after a hesitation then you miss out on some of the rise, but you avoided a drop.

Of course we get caught out. Once I've started losing though on a trade I still prefer to get out. If you don't, the direction will usually continue backwards - though sod's law applies. At least you don't lose much. To hell with the extra profit you could have made if only.... That's not money out of your pocket.

Recently it hasn't often been easy. Tradertv's approach usually works
He decides which way something is likely to go, and what the levels are That's usually enough to sit there all day.
If there's no catalyst, then I wait for a trend to establish, otherwise I don't enter.
Quite often he's very wrong, which he gaslights. It's worth waiting to see if he's right.
I've found it best to stick to one stock. It's boring and if I get distracted, then I miss what I was waiting for, but it's worth it. Catena takes half his million bucks out as soon as he's up, so if it reverts all the way, he's still up. I can't easily do that, and I find it perverse to sit watching the profit ebb away.

Using one stock reduces the number of silly trades one is tempted into. I noticed you often take positions a couple of minutes apart. Pros don't do that, they take very few trades per day, or less. It takes a bit of time to assemble the "confluence" a decent rade needs.

Now we're seriously in slump times, the few stocks I was in, have dropped 3% or so. I was only out of most of them. NOne is individually very much, I forgot to apply SLs though in some cases it's not possible.. You can't be watching them all the time. I'll sell Monday unless I feel they're things which will probably jump back up soon.
The rest of the Passing fortunes are in bondy things or MM.
Last time there was a proper crash, people made heavy use of Short leveraged stocks and made a killing, I read.
That Shawn will be in London for a few days. He's annoying, so it'll be better on ttv.
 
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More nonsense:

TextDateSummaryMarketNameProfitAndLossOpen levelClose levelSizeDateUtcOpenDateUtc
02/08/2024​
NIO Inc - ADR (All Sessions)
-£97.00​
399​
408.7​
-10​
2024-08-02T15:50:342024-08-02T14:40:55
02/08/2024​
Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions)
-£173.85​
20904​
20556.3​
0.5​
2024-08-02T14:41:392024-08-02T14:38:14
02/08/2024​
Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (All Sessions)
£146.40​
1815.3​
1778.7​
-4​
2024-08-02T14:37:212024-08-02T14:32:46
02/08/2024​
Apple Inc (All Sessions)
-£73.05​
22132​
22278.1​
-0.5​
2024-08-02T14:26:162024-08-02T14:09:42
02/08/2024​
Hut 8 Mining Corp (US)
-£130.50​
1355​
1328.9​
5​
2024-08-02T13:57:292024-08-02T13:49:49
02/08/2024​
NIO Inc - ADR (All Sessions)
-£60.00​
396​
402​
-10​
2024-08-02T13:50:122024-08-02T13:47:24
02/08/2024​
NIO Inc - ADR (All Sessions)
£250.00​
419​
394​
-10​
2024-08-02T13:04:442024-08-01T14:26:10
02/08/2024​
Short Interest for US/Can shares 01/08/24
£0.27​
-
0​
-2024-08-02T01:17:532024-08-02T01:17:53
02/08/2024​
Stock Borrowing for US/Can shares 01/08/24
-£0.17​
-
0​
-2024-08-02T01:17:532024-08-02T01:17:53
01/08/2024​
Microsoft Corp (All Sessions)
-£79.80​
42451​
42291.4​
0.5​
2024-08-01T14:48:532024-08-01T14:46:17
01/08/2024​
ARM Holdings PLC - ADR (All Sessions)
-£100.70​
12590​
12388.6​
0.5​
2024-08-01T14:43:022024-08-01T14:24:39
01/08/2024​
Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)
-£60.35​
22913​
22792.3​
0.5​
2024-08-01T14:15:222024-08-01T14:12:08
01/08/2024​
Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)
£62.50​
23111​
22986​
-0.5​
2024-08-01T14:08:162024-08-01T14:03:08
01/08/2024​
NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)
£32.00​
11941​
11909​
-1​
2024-08-01T13:51:242024-08-01T13:49:34
01/08/2024​
Carvana Company
£55.00​
14753​
14863​
0.5​
2024-08-01T13:48:392024-08-01T13:46:30
01/08/2024​
NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)
£1.00​
11857​
11856​
-1​
2024-08-01T13:34:282024-08-01T13:27:29
-228.25
 
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It's always interesting to see what percentage of punters lose money.
 
Any ideas on why the Stock Market took a tumble today? Something about The Yen Carry Trade and a rumour the Fed is about to cut interest rates has been mentioned but is there a deeper reason?
 
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It's always interesting to see what percentage of punters lose money.
But traders on a Prop Floor (professional setups) only have 2-3 red days a month. They do the same thing , day after day... My average isn't that good, or certainly wouldn't be if I had to work at it every day.

Today I thought to myself, I had no idea what would happen. So I ignored all the Magnificent 7 and did the same as usual.
Bitcoin went up, so all the associated stocks did too. Same as I've posted many times. MARA, COIN. HUT, MSTR. They flew off at the open so I put some in 3 of them. They averaged something around 15% gains. I use 5x leverage, so that's 75% gain on the day.
1722891580694.png

That stock has a wide spread, so if the timing's bad you twitch. Where the vertical line is, I went down errm, quite a lot.


There was a strange combination of things going on. I don't pretend to understand it much. Day traders couldn't care less, they mostly just use "price action".
1) everyone was expecting more of a pullback - it's a self-fulfilling thing. You sell, just in case, then the prices drop so everyone sells....
2) The Sahm rule loomed. (implying a recession, by common interpretation)
3) Elliot waves predicted a downturn - ditto sf. (still do)
4) the US employment figures raised eyebrows, causing their stock to drop a bit Friday, and frightened the Japanese. So did Warren Buffet selling Apple secretly..
5) The actions of the Japanese treasury rattled people in Japan last night, which tanked their stock market.
6) The carry trade community had to react.

So stocks in Japan dropped about 12%, and the world dropped about 2-3% at the open.

The Carry Trade is a sort of arbitrage thing where you can borrow in eg Japan at about 0% interest, and invest in either US bonds at 4-5% or the Mag 7 at say 20%. Particularly used by the hoi poloi, and individuals worth more than a quarter Bn, which is where High Net Worth starts (I gather). Japanese individuals remortgage their houses to get the cash (!).

If your borrowing suddenly costs you something more than 0, , and your market yields are threatened, you move the money, which rattles everyone. There were some large trades today

--
EDit just learned the Yen-Dollar caper was using the Mexican Peso somehow. The sums involves suggest that there could be a hidden broker in there somewhere (Bloomberg says), so there's a possibility of a Lehman Brothers' moment coming.
The Yen recovered and fell back again, the Nikkei was halted, and it's going again, trading 15% up which is nice to play with.
 
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EDit just learned the Yen-Dollar caper was using the Mexican Peso somehow. The sums involves suggest that there could be a hidden broker in there somewhere (Bloomberg says), so there's a possibility of a Lehman Brothers' moment coming.
Maybe you can explain more?

I've sold nvidia for the day. Good downward trend on 30 minutes, reversal candles, and if it has gone below 10,000 it can do so again.
 
I suppose I'm lazy on this. A guy interviewed on Bloomberg said he often gets asked 'I have $100k to invest, what should I do with it?' He said 9 times out of 10 he replies 'invest it in the S&P 500 then sit back ...'

This is kind of my approach. My only regret? That I didn't start 20 years ago!
 
I suppose I'm lazy on this. A guy interviewed on Bloomberg said he often gets asked 'I have $100k to invest, what should I do with it?' He said 9 times out of 10 he replies 'invest it in the S&P 500 then sit back ...'

This is kind of my approach. My only regret? That I didn't start 20 years ago!
It's remarkable that in the long run, unadventurous index tracking beats pretty well all the highly paid (and high charging) fund managers, with their highly paid sales and marketing divisions.

It's been pointed out that the idiot Trump, who likes to call himself a genius, would be richer today if, instead of investing in casinos and flashy buildings with his name on them, he had invested the huge inheritance from his dad in a simple tracker fund, he would have made more.

Coincidentally, a well known UK investment company, noted for its persuasive salesmen, high charges and onerous contracts, is going down the tubes today because the well-heeled customers have become aware that the high charges erode their profit and transfer it into the pockets of the company bosses. It calls itself a "wealth manager. "

"The Financial Conduct Authority has repeatedly warned wealth managers to ensure consumers are receiving value for money when they pay for financial advice, and this month it said it may crack down on high charges.
The warnings are part of the watchdog’s consumer duty regulations, introduced last year, which require companies to meet higher standards of customer protection. Under the new rules, firms must act in good faith towards customers, avoid causing foreseeable harm, and enable and support customers to pursue their financial objectives."

FT.com
 
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It's remarkable that in the long run, unadventurous index tracking beats pretty well all the highly paid (and high charging) fund managers, with their highly paid sales and marketing divisions.
Set it and forget it ...
 
I'm sure JD is happy that the tubes-ensconced Wealth Manager is/was one used by Rees-Mogg.

Sure, it's not a bad punt to use the S&P 500 for investing, if you're lazy!
The Bloomberg man doesn't say it's the best, he says "you'll be ok".
Notably one of the Bloomberg interviewees says put a chunk of your money in Money Market (5% atm) and that the biggest mistake investors make, is "hubris".
But the reply to someone who says "you can't beat the index" - usually they don't know what index they're talking about, and if they do, it's bollox.

It's not difficult to name a few "advisers" whose advice is claimed (& "shown") to return double or whatever the S&P500 does though, Zacks is one whose site I was just on; I think it's $99 a year.
I'm being encouraged to pay $999 a year to get at least double the S&P 500 , using monthly sector adjustments. It soulds a lot, but obviously it depends on the capital. Complex algorithms are used to pluck out the sectors. They claim "AI" of course

OTOH folk beat the 500 easily, by shifting between sectors, once a month, using their own nous. More frequently didn't help, in back-tested trials. The sectors aren't hard to spot either - look at the last 6, 3, 2 and 1 month results, and say the last week as a start.
You need a good screener and a good broker/"wealth manager" because a lot have a lousy range of funds, and there are thousands of funds, not as crude as just the main 11 sectors. Eg there's one called NAIL for US housebuilders, and several gene therapy ones.

I'm using a number of platforms for historic reasons, and have found useful backup funds in most of them, but a couple of pension holders are poor.
I mentioned India before, it was running at over 50%pa for a long time. As it happens it wasn't so much affected by the recent Japan/US pullback, either.
My long term holdings are up well, boosted by a small number of paticularly successful trades - one of which was posted here, which blew the rest out of the water.

The 500 might do as a base, but perhaps only half if you're even only slightly active. Maybe split that with India, depending. You could use some XLK (tech), SOXL (semiconductors), and a few individual stocks from the Mag7 plus the likes of NVDA(chips) or LLY(pharma).
Pick the right Corporate bond or two and you can do better than the 500. Here 28% vs 18%
You have to remember that, just as on those candle-charts shown recently, you can tell when things are getting flat. I got out of tech as posted here, a few weeks ago.
Most of mine is now in a Corp bond, and much of my wife's is in 5% because she's frit.
It's true, prices might drop 12% overnight in one sector such as in Japan now, but if you're up 50% it doesn't matter. The starting point matters of course - see "dollar cost averaging" and similar techniques.

The S&P 500 etfs are up about 15% in the last year.
1722993102442.png



If you DIY you have the option to try other things.
I put a lump in stock SMCI which doubled in 2 weeks, and a smaller mount in NVD3, posted earlier:
1722994688975.png

There have been a few others.
I don't know what I've had overall because it gets additions.

I'm glad I didn' use SP500 though.
 
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06/08/2024​
NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)
-£419.00​
DEALDIAAAAQFB3LQRBC
10201​
10620​
-1​
2024-08-06T19:42:452024-08-06T10:12:48

Buying cable today. 5min trend is up, Halifax house prices encouraging, talk of rate cuts in US. Close out at 4:50pm.
 
06/08/2024​
NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)
-£419.00​
DEALDIAAAAQFB3LQRBC
10201​
10620​
-1​
2024-08-06T19:42:452024-08-06T10:12:48

Buying cable today. 5min trend is up, Halifax house prices encouraging, talk of rate cuts in US. Close out at 4:50pm.
What does the Nvidia line mean? Is that what it seems, a £419 loss?

I wouldn't bet on any US rate cut in the next what, 5 weeks? That would look like panic.
As you are though, 12:30 looks like a good time to have got out, 0.2% say

It's the Yen that's had me doing the sums (Yen's not easy!). It moved 2% today. What leverage do you get? Mine's 30x.
Now then, 1k at 30x 2% is £600 overnight
100K, = £60K.

A friend is an acct so had a Pro account, with 600x or something leverage. He said it frightened him.

It would be "easy" to use an Avatrade account copy trading a forex trader. They called me to try to hook me up, which I thought was suspicious, but maybe not. The question you ask yourself is "Do they make a profit" and the answer is obvious - they wouldn't have been there months or more if they didn't.


The Nikkei225 is up a dozen % in the last few days. At 20x that's worth considering with a trailing stop.
 
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It's the Yen that's had me doing the sums (Yen's not easy!). It moved 2% today. What leverage do you get? Mine's 30x.
Now then, 1k at 30x 2% is £600 overnight
100K, = £60K.
£2 per point on USDJPY requires £980 margin. Could have made about £500 overnight going long with that stake. So looks like it's much the same as you.
 
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