Almost a year after Russia’s war against Ukraine started, it has united the west, according to a 15-country survey – but exposed a widening gulf with the rest of the world that is defining the contours of a future global order.
The study, by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank, surveyed opinions in nine EU member states, including France, Germany and Poland, and in Britain and the US, as well as China, Russia, India and Turkey. It revealed sharp geographical differences in attitudes to the war, democracy and the global balance of power, the authors said, suggesting Russia’s aggression may be a historic turning point marking the emergence of a “post-western” world order. However, it had “utterly failed to persuade major powers of the rest, such as China, India and Turkey”. The lesson was clear: “We urgently need a new narrative that is actually persuasive to countries like India, the world’s largest democracy.”
More people in Europe (44% in Britain, 38% in the EU nine) believed Ukraine should retake all its territory, even at the cost of a longer war, and fewer (22% and 30%) wanted the war to stop as soon as possible, even if that meant Ukraine ceding land to Russia.
Responses from the non-western countries surveyed, however, were very different. Large numbers of people in China (76%), India (77%) and Turkey (73%), for example, said they felt Russia was “stronger” or “as strong” as before the war. They saw Moscow as a strategic “ally” and “necessary partner” of their country (79%, 79%, 69%). Almost two-thirds of Russian respondents (64%) said the US was an “adversary”, with 51% and 46% saying the same of the EU and UK. In China, 43% perceived the US as a rival, 40% said the same of the UK, and 34% of the EU.
Many outside the west predicted the US-led liberal order would cede global dominance over the next decade, with the west predicted to become just one global power among several. Only 7% in Russia and 6% in China predicted it would be dominant 10 years from now. In Europe and the US, however, many (29% in Britain, 28% in the EU nine, and 26% in the US) foresaw a new bipolar world of two blocs led by the US and China, whereas there were signs that emerging powers saw the future in more multipolar terms.
“Many people in the west see the coming international order as the return of a cold war-type bipolarity between west and east, democracy and authoritarianism,” the study’s authors said. “But people in those countries see themselves very differently.”
The west will have to live, they said, with “hostile dictatorships such as China and Russia”, but also with independent powers such as India and Turkey. These do not “represent some new third bloc” or even share a common ideology, but nor are they “content to adjust to the whims and plans of the superpowers”.
analysis@theGrunaid
The study, by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank, surveyed opinions in nine EU member states, including France, Germany and Poland, and in Britain and the US, as well as China, Russia, India and Turkey. It revealed sharp geographical differences in attitudes to the war, democracy and the global balance of power, the authors said, suggesting Russia’s aggression may be a historic turning point marking the emergence of a “post-western” world order. However, it had “utterly failed to persuade major powers of the rest, such as China, India and Turkey”. The lesson was clear: “We urgently need a new narrative that is actually persuasive to countries like India, the world’s largest democracy.”
More people in Europe (44% in Britain, 38% in the EU nine) believed Ukraine should retake all its territory, even at the cost of a longer war, and fewer (22% and 30%) wanted the war to stop as soon as possible, even if that meant Ukraine ceding land to Russia.
Responses from the non-western countries surveyed, however, were very different. Large numbers of people in China (76%), India (77%) and Turkey (73%), for example, said they felt Russia was “stronger” or “as strong” as before the war. They saw Moscow as a strategic “ally” and “necessary partner” of their country (79%, 79%, 69%). Almost two-thirds of Russian respondents (64%) said the US was an “adversary”, with 51% and 46% saying the same of the EU and UK. In China, 43% perceived the US as a rival, 40% said the same of the UK, and 34% of the EU.
Many outside the west predicted the US-led liberal order would cede global dominance over the next decade, with the west predicted to become just one global power among several. Only 7% in Russia and 6% in China predicted it would be dominant 10 years from now. In Europe and the US, however, many (29% in Britain, 28% in the EU nine, and 26% in the US) foresaw a new bipolar world of two blocs led by the US and China, whereas there were signs that emerging powers saw the future in more multipolar terms.
“Many people in the west see the coming international order as the return of a cold war-type bipolarity between west and east, democracy and authoritarianism,” the study’s authors said. “But people in those countries see themselves very differently.”
The west will have to live, they said, with “hostile dictatorships such as China and Russia”, but also with independent powers such as India and Turkey. These do not “represent some new third bloc” or even share a common ideology, but nor are they “content to adjust to the whims and plans of the superpowers”.
analysis@theGrunaid
