Ukraine counter offensive

Russia has stated what it demands for a negotiated settlement. That includes Kyiv, Odessa and a huge chunk of Ukrainian land and people.

Its a non-starter.
 
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That's what a negotiation is for: you make demands, the other side responds and somewhere in the middle is a meeting point.
No way will Russia give back Crimea and a line along the Dnipro river could be a starting point for dividing the Donetsk and Luhansk region.
Since Ukraine has stated it won't give up an inch of territory, they must fight on.
Hard to see how a breakthrough can be achieved without NATO intervention.
 
A breakthrough can only happen when the conditions allow it. Defending a position is much easier than attacking one, so you have to have a significant superiority of local force to take it and even more to exploit it and turn it into a breakthrough.

The Russian incompetence in Kherson made us think they were universally incompetent and stupid. Sadly that's not true, the near universal corruption does help though.

The way they've thrown their 'storm' units and Wagner before them into human wave meat grinders distracted from the units they are training, equipping and expending effectively.

Russia still has too much materiel and personnel for a general collapse. Ukraine is fighting clever but they've got to keep wearing down the Russian forces for now.
 
Putin says the counter offensive has failed and it's hard to say he's wrong. Is it time to consider a negotiated settlement?

I can understand why Putin and his supporters are in favour of keeping the land they've invaded and asking Ukraine to stop fighting.

He might want that. Do you?
 
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It's also incredibly stupid to agree to a negotiated settlement. Putin will use the time to rearm and prepare for round three.
 
I can understand why Putin and his supporters are in favour of keeping the land they've invaded and asking Ukraine to stop fighting.

He might want that. Do you?
Not up to me, old prune, is it.

It'll be a sad state of affairs for them to endure another winter of war and the toxic affect on their morale will spread if the EU, UK and America are affected by a lack of progress: never mind the cost of supporting them with more military hardware.
 
It's also incredibly stupid to agree to a negotiated settlement. Putin will use the time to rearm and prepare for round three.
This is the reality

its something idiots like Corbyn calling for a “peace settlement“ wilfully ignore
 
Not up to me, old prune, is it.

It'll be a sad state of affairs for them to endure another winter of war and the toxic affect on their morale will spread if the EU, UK and America are affected by a lack of progress: never mind the cost of supporting them with more military hardware.
The West has had a terrific bargain in seeing the mighty forces of Russia beat themselves to a pulp on somebody else's anvil. Russia used to have vast numbers of tanks, guns, armoured vehicles, trucks, shells... all gone now.

Apart from a heap of old stock out of our warehouses, our cost has been trivial, compared to fighting a war or enduring an attack ourselves.
 
The West has had a terrific bargain in seeing the mighty forces of Russia beat themselves to a pulp on somebody else's anvil. Russia used to have vast numbers of tanks, guns, armoured vehicles, trucks, shells... all gone now.

Apart from a heap of old stock out of our warehouses, our cost has been trivial, compared to fighting a war or enduring an attack ourselves.
The war in Ukraine has reduced European economic growth and "considerably" pushed up inflation across the continent, the Swiss National Bank said in a study published on [Oct. 13th], with worse effects still to come.
(Reuters)

Since the war began, the Biden administration and the U.S. Congress have directed more than $75 billion in assistance to Ukraine, which includes humanitarian, financial, and military support, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research institute. [Sept 2023]

The UK provided £2.3 billion in military support to Ukraine in 2022 and has already committed the same level of military support in 2023, totalling £4.6 billion over both years. [Feb 2023]

In September 2022, the World Bank estimated that the cost of rebuilding Ukraine would be about $349 billion, a number that is larger than Ukraine's pre-invasion GDP and three-times greater than all the military, humanitarian, and financial assistance commitments to Ukraine since the start of the war, and is certainly much higher now.
source:rand.org

The Russian government has said it aims to spend a staggering Rbs10.8tn ($108bn) on defence next year, three times the amount allocated in 2021, the last year before the invasion, and 70 per cent more than was planned for this year.

The 'price of freedom' is mucho expensive, no?
 
The Ukrainian counter offensive has ground to a halt. The Russian attack near Avikda (spelling is wrong) has also been smashed flat.

The Russian army has managed to reconstitute enough troops to have an effective reserve and are rotating some units off the line. They're also receiving equipment and munitions from North Korea in bulk.

We're going to settle into the Winter season. That makes movement, mine clearance and resupply harder. As expected the war will roll into 2024 and probably 2025.
North Korea is sending enough equipment to last a few days, maybe a week or two, given Russia's rate of consumption of ammo.

Not a big impact of things, but the UK is clearly not impressed:

Ukraine has made progress in the summer, but given how dug in the Russian are, it was always going to be slow.

The Russian will now be digging in again, and apparently installing concrete bunkers for the winter. Something else to blow up.
 
How's this counter offensive going? Is the war over - haven’t seen much about it on the news and it seems to have gone a bit quiet on here lately too. Has @ellal swapped his Ukrainian refugee tenants for Palestinian ones yet?
 
The Ukrainian counter offensive is going slowly. No big mechanised offensives. There has been a medium sized river crossing on the left bank of the Dnieper river, but it isn't likely to be scaled up to a major offensive.

There was a major strike on a Russian airbase using ATCAMs, destroying in the region of 10 helicopters. Probably the worst daily losses Russian aviation have suffered since WW2.

Russia launched an offensive near Dotnesk and lost an army's worth of armour. They haven't given up but are using more dismounted infantry who haven't managed to advance much against cluster munition artillery fire.

There is an expectation that Russia is conserving it's cruise missiles in preparation for a major infrastructure campaign as winter settles in. They're going to try the blitz approach again this year.

North Korea has increased the volume of equipment they're sending to Russia. Probably mostly artillery rounds.
 
Poo tin turned 71 on October 7th

The Kremlin denied he is in poor health

They also stated that the claims that he has had to resort to body doubles for certain public appearances as absurd
 
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