Ukraine counter offensive

“The enemy will certainly receive a worthy response, and all the goals facing us will undoubtedly be achieved,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday, ordering security services to conduct a “counterterrorist operation” in the region.

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Pro-Kremlin Russian media have repeatedly accused the Ukrainian army of targeting civilians, including a drone strike on an ambulance that killed its driver and one paramedic and wounded another. There have also been reports that Ukrainian soldiers opened fire on cars in the village of Kurilovka, fatally wounding a pregnant woman, and took captive volunteers who were helping evacuate civilians...“Western countries are sincerely attempting to say, ‘We weren’t involved. We didn’t greenlight this.’ This is an obvious lie. It’s clear that this operation wasn’t organised by Zelenskyy or his headquarters. This operation was developed by NATO specialists. Their signature style is clearly evident. Quite many mercenaries are also involved as well as units that were safeguarded until now. The quantity of Western equipment is unprecedented for this sort of a task.”

Retired Lieutenant Colonel Roman Shkurlatov told the newspaper Izvestia that “the enemy may have several goals. The first is to show their Western sponsors and curators that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can not only retreat, but also produce some results. They have been retreating and suffering defeats for months. They need a small tactical victory like air [to breathe]. The second probable goal is an attempt to stake out a foothold in the territory of Kursk Oblast for subsequent bargaining in these or other negotiations. The third is an attempt to force us to pull reserves near Kursk, exposing other directions. But they will clearly not succeed in this. We have enough unused reserves.”
 
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Besides, these two are brother nations.

Maybe you try to invade and seize your brother's home, kill him and his family, and steal his land.

Cain and Abel?

Or are you a Stalinist?

Or a Zionist?

Did a god tell you you could do it?
 
The current new style Ukraine action is still very much a TBD. As many pundits have pointed out. It could turn out to have been a bad idea.
 
Maybe you try to invade and seize your brother's home, kill him and his family, and steal his land.
Or maybe you make a show and hook in some unaware punters coming with the cash. Ukraine was offering a free lunch of fighting until the last ukrainian. As the saying goes, when something seems to be too good to be true, it is. Clearly the punters are hooked and unable to extricate. The punters lost africa, and on the verge of losing the middle east - there are claims russians will supply hypersonics, which will render ships useless.
 
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The current new style Ukraine action is still very much a TBD. As many pundits have pointed out. It could turn out to have been a bad idea.
On the other hand it could be a good move - it makes Russia alter its strategic aims in the South, moving forces into the Kursk region, and gives Ukraine a big morale boost with propaganda benefits. If they decide to dig in and fight for the salient they make Putin look weak and take leverage to any negotiations in future. Russian media claims they have plenty of reserves to fight off the incursion which means they'll have to fight on home turf rather than drive deeper into Ukraine.
 
On the other hand it could be a good move - it makes Russia alter its strategic aims in the South, moving forces into the Kursk region

Can they circle around and attack the Russians in the south from behind?

Reports that Ukraine are using Challenger 2 tanks inside Russia.
 
My conclusion is it's an attempt to weaken the front line in Ukraine as Russian troops are diverted to address the invasion. But if that is my conclusion then I suspect greater military strategists have spotted it. Either way, it puts Russia in a tricky position.
 
Can they circle around and attack the Russians in the south from behind?

Reports that Ukraine are using Challenger 2 tanks inside Russia.
Probably not.

But while the successes of the surprise Kursk operation have boosted Kyiv's morale, Russian forces are striking back, capturing more territory around Ukraine's Donetsk region. Since Ukraine launched the Kursk offensive, "I would say things have become worse in our part of the front," said Ivan Sekach, spokesperson of Ukraine's 110th Mechanized Brigade, which is currently deployed in the Pokrovsk district in the Donetsk region. "We have been getting even less ammo than before and Russians are pushing,” he told Politico. Over the past 24 hours, Russia occupied the villages of Zhelanne and Orlivka and made advances in New York, Krasnohorivka, Mykolaivka and Zhuravka in Donetsk, according to an update posted by DeepState, a war mapping project close to Ukraine's defense ministry.

Ukraine doesn't have the units, artillery or especially amour to make an encirclement plausible.
 
On the other hand it could be a good move -
In the case of the reasons you mention yes. They are using their better experienced troops and expensive western kit. Analysts also point out they are using small mobile units and a limited number of troops. Recently they have said they are sending more but when and how many. They can only weaken their normal fighting lines by a certain amount and things are not going that well there anyway.

Advances - reporting back to the boss - we have advanced 2km in certain directions. There are various estimates on the depth of Russia they have penetrated. If small mobile units it's hard to see how they can say they have full control of some area. If they merge together they become an easier target. They need to maintain supply lines.

This is the sort of thing that concerns the pundits. They could loose the lot even find they can't supply it.

The chieftains were for the offensive that never happened. Other western kit in use much the same.

Lots of Russians have been evacuated which helps then deal with the problems if they were still there.
 
"Russia may be forced to rethink its claim that any peace deal must take account of who controls territory on the ground"

FT.com

Goose, sauce, gander.
 
Can they circle around and attack the Russians in the south from behind?

Reports that Ukraine are using Challenger 2 tanks inside Russia.
Yes they can if you join the fight. They are short of bodies. Hitler failed with 2m men. These clowns are going in with 10k with no support and no air cover. They will hide in the bushes for as long as they can. Presumably they will grow their own food while they are there.

They are throwing in the game changing challengers for a final push. They won't be needing those after.
 
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