You need a smart meter

[Adam_151]

So that you are in an infrastructure where it's not all-or-nothing, or everybody-or-nobody, and come the day when you or someone in the house needs some equipment to stay alive you don't have to be cut off when they need to reduce the load. Or if they just have to cut the load by 10% you only get hit one time in ten, and the next nine times its one of your neighbours.

The problem is, that sort of thing starts to add complexitiy, you then have to start having an esstential and a non esstential board, pretty standard for a data centre, but not for a house. So what would happen is that the majority of installations would ignore one of the outputs, probably be connected to the switched one to start with, and then if cut off happened often, it would all end up on the essential. A few members here would make use of both, but it would be an unusual set up.

Maybe a better idea would be for high demand loads to be able to receive requests to reduce grid demand directly, we are already seeing that with EV supply points, with intelligent octopus you get a 7.5p night rate as long as they control when exactly the load is drawn, you tell their app how much you need by what time and it'll pull in at appropiate times to balance grid demand. If it cannot find a satsisfactory way to do it during the off peak hours, it might even switch the rate on your meter to the reduced one and charge on some other slots (and of course, no one ever games this by inflating the amount they need, or adjusting the plug in window to get extra slots for other loads.....)

Maybe we for example need fridges that can adjust the hysteresis configuration of an electronic thermostat depending on grid demand, even better if as well as allowing more of a rise above set point during excess demand, if prior to the excess demand, they could cool quite a bit lower than set point to give them more capacity to ride through it.

 

[JBR]

Re subs - I thought that if they stop hearing from the chain of command they use an X-day absence of R4 long wave as confirmation of destruction of the country and open those letters of last resort.

Yes. Certainly, the ballistic missile submarines don't use these trailed antennae to transmit, as that would give away their location. They do it to be able to receive information (including, as you say, long-wave domestic news transmissions - or their absence!) and possibly orders from 'head office'.

 

[ericmark]

So that you are in an infrastructure where it's not all-or-nothing, or everybody-or-nobody, and come the day when you or someone in the house needs some equipment to stay alive you don't have to be cut off when they need to reduce the load. Or if they just have to cut the load by 10% you only get hit one time in ten, and the next nine times its one of your neighbours.

So you think there will be a return of the Winter of discontent? I must admit I am also expecting it, with heat pumps and EV charging we are likely to increase our use of electric, they will not do anything until it is too late, so I do not want to rely on electric, the government have proved they can't ensure we get the supply we need in 1979, and the labour party may get in again, look at the problems here in Wales with 20 MPH speed limits, at the same time as Prime minister is says we will not have blanket speed limits.

 

[bernardgreen]

The electricity "problem" in the Winter of Discontent" was that the power stations had restricted supplies of fuel which meant loads had the be shed, With very few exceptions the electricity network was not overloaded .

The pending crisis is likely to be different, the network may be overloaded and local disconnections may be needed to prevent the creation of hot spots.

 

[Harry Bloomfield]

This time around, they have, without giving it enough thought, tried to push people to electric cars, electric heating in the form of heat pumps, without planning where the extra generation or distribution capacity might come from. Adding to the problems, there have supported intermittent green energy, without even nearly adequate backup for times of no green energy.

 

[JBR]

Yes, not only are they trying to push EVs and heat pumps, they are still determined to produce the electricity we shall need by planting more and more windmills!
Remembering when we were in the forefront of the development of domestic nuclear power generation back in the '50s, we now seem to have 'lost' all that expertise and have to rely on China and, for god's sake our 'friends' in France to build any new such power stations!
We still apparently have Rolls Royce, who have proposed the establishment of Small Modular (nuclear) Reactors throughout the country, similar to those they already produce to power our nuclear-powered submarines, and which work well and reliably.
Unfortunately, our wonderful government is still dithering about any adoption of these.
It wouldn't surprise me, if they eventually get their arses into gear, if they decide it best to ask the Frogs to build some of their designs (at no doubt much greater cost and time penalty) for us.

 

[morqthana]

look at the problems here in Wales with 20 MPH speed limits, at the same time as Prime minister is says we will not have blanket speed limits.

The PM says he'll put a stop compulsory car sharing. Except there is nothing to stop - there never was such a plan.

The PM says he'll put a stop to a tax on eating meat. Except there is nothing to stop - there is no such tax planned.

The PM says he'll put a stop to new taxes aimed at discouraging flying. Except there is nothing to stop - there are no such taxes planned.

The PM says he'll put a stop to people having to sort rubbish into seven different bins. Except there is nothing to stop - there never was such a plan.

The PM is very good at promising not to do things that nobody has said they are going to do if those promises play well on the pages of his client newspapers.

He's also very good at promising to stop things which are not under govt control, like low-emission zones, bus lanes, low traffic neighbourhoods. And 20mph speed limits. My council has many of those, and not all for just a few '00m outside schools. And it's been Tory for 17 years.

According to the Highway Code which I've seen, we already have blanket speed limits over the entire country. Subject to even lower limits in places we have a blanket 70mph on motorways and dual carriageways, a blanket 60mph on single carriageway roads outside built-up areas, etc.

So what is your problem with having a blanket 20mph in built-up areas? The fact that it is "blanket" (shown above to be a specious concern), or that it is 20mph and not 30? In Belgium there's a blanket limit of 18.6mph in Brussels, and 12.4mph in residential areas. Are Belgian motorists oppressed and down trodden, or is it that they are not entitled snowflakes who don't think anything they currently have should ever be changed? Between 1930 & 1935 we had no speed limits - should we go back to those days?

Try carrying out an honest appraisal of how long it takes you to drive a route, or a given road, with a cap of 20mph vs 30 (assuming you can even reach 30mph at any point in the first place). Then look at the worst-case extra few minutes and ask yourself what kind of person you are, and what kind of life you lead, such that those few minutes are of such significance to you. Also try to justify avoidable casualties and avoidable pollution as prices the rest of society should be prepared to pay to allow you to save those few minutes journey time.

 

[morqthana]

they are still determined to produce the electricity we shall need by planting more and more windmills!

Because the electricity is cheaper to make.

 

[Northman]

Nonsense. Wind power is vastly more expensive than nuclear or gas/coal. Why do you think UK electricity prices are so high? In France this afternoon the electricity is sourced 95% from nuclear, and the standard electricity tariff is the equivalent of 17p/kWh compared to over 30p in the UK where we have something over 12GW of installed wind capacity. Its all very well saying that 'wind is free' but collecting it and distributing it is certainly not. There are huge hidden costs to wind, not least the fact that you need backup for the many times there is no wind when you need power. Much over 15-20% penetration of non-dispatchable power (wind and solar) and the system costs rise dramatically, as we all know to our (literal) cost.

Smart meters have always been intended as a means of rationing. They ration by price when there is not enough generation capacity. This is the whole raison d'etre of Time of Use tariffs. They are rationing mechanisms.

 

[EFLImpudence]

Don't forget the rent paid to land and sea-bed owners in the UK.

 

[Harry Bloomfield]

Nonsense. Wind power is vastly more expensive than nuclear or gas/coal. Why do you think UK electricity prices are so high? In France this afternoon the electricity is sourced 95% from nuclear, and the standard electricity tariff is the equivalent of 17p/kWh compared to over 30p in the UK where we have something over 12GW of installed wind capacity. Its all very well saying that 'wind is free' but collecting it and distributing it is certainly not. There are huge hidden costs to wind, not least the fact that you need backup for the many times there is no wind when you need power. Much over 15-20% penetration of non-dispatchable power (wind and solar) and the system costs rise dramatically, as we all know to our (literal) cost.

Smart meters have always been intended as a means of rationing. They ration by price when there is not enough generation capacity. This is the whole raison d'etre of Time of Use tariffs. They are rationing mechanisms.

Spot on! The wind and solar power is free, but the cost of collecting, and converting it is very expensive, then it may need as much as 100% backup via alternative sources, for times when it is dark, cold and the wind don't blow.

 

[morqthana]

Nonsense. Wind power is vastly more expensive than nuclear or gas/coal.

Evidence please.

In the meantime:

"a contract between the UK government and the EDF-CGN partnership guarantees the energy firms a £92.50 ($120.40) megawatt-hour price for electricity generated at Hinkley Point C."

An overview of Sizewell C: The planned Suffolk nuclear power station moving closer to being built

Projected for a 2031 completion date, Sizewell C nuclear power station in Suffolk could produce 7% of the UK's electricity, powering six million homes

www.nsenergybusiness.com

https://assets.publishing.service.g...1179359/electricity-generation-costs-2023.pdf

Cost of electricity by source - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Why do you think UK electricity prices are so high?

Because we are more-or-less exposed to the vagaries of market forces. Something we chose to do when we sold off our generating operation to the market.

In France this afternoon the electricity is sourced 95% from nuclear, and the standard electricity tariff is the equivalent of 17p/kWh compared to over 30p in the UK

That's because the French state pays to build the power stations and sets the tariffs. We could have the same prices, or better prices, or even free electricity, if we had different government policies, but that isn't what the people of this country want, which is why they keep voting for anti state-ownership, free market fetishising parties.

 

[Northman]

The figures you provide from the BEIS document actually make my case for me. If you understand the figures and how they are produced, you will note that the points made above (about non-dispatchability and unreliability) are not addressed in the production of these figures. The calculations assume that a given (for example) installation of wind turbines will operate at its expected load factor continually (i.e. as 'baseload' generation. [This assumption is documented in these reports]. The calculations also assume some rather fanciful load factors for (especially) offshore wind. 47%-60%? On which planet!

Just to take the first graph on the left for commissioning in 2025; the blue bar associated with Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT) is all theoretical 'Carbon' costs - in essence an imposition of additional costs, nothing to do with generation. Tax if you like, so not really a part of the cost of generation equation. Note that no 'Carbon' costs are associated with the wind and solar systems despite the enormous input into manufacturing and installing these (tens of cubic metres of concrete anyone? transport? steel and material fabrication? all of these had no energy (i.e.'Carbon') input?)

So, that gives CCGT a real cost (in their calculations) of say £55/MWh. Thats actually not too far from the wholesale cost of electricity a few years back of about £44/MWh before the large penetration of renewables.

Now, the levelised costs for wind and solar as noted above don't include any contribution due to the way they are not 'dispatchable'. i.e. they can't supply power on a guaranteed basis. This is what really wrecks the whole system. Without too lengthy a dissertation, once you take that into account you end up with figures of around £50-55 for Gas, £65 for onshore wind, and over £75/MWh for Offshore wind. And that's being generous to the Wind.

Note that the largest part of the costs of Gas are the fuel costs - building reliable dispatchable power generation at scale is very cheap. Note also the substantial fixed and variable maintenance costs of Wind, and the large cost per MWh of actually constructing them. (And again, the assumptions made in the calculations are very favourable to the Wind units).

Even on the figures above, once you take out the 'tax' on gas, there is not that much advantage to the renewables. When you put in the real world assumptions about load factors actually achieved, the real maintenance costs, and the costs the renewables impose on the grid by their non-dispatchability, then it is easy to show that the renewables are significantly more expensive, and don't actually produce a stable system.

If you want to look at it another way, if the real world levelised cost of generation for Offshore wind was £44/MWh as given in your figure then the manufacturers would have bitten the hand off the Government offering them £70/MWh in the recent Cfd auctions. In fact not one bid was received at that price, because the Wind Generators know that their real cost of generation is way higher than that.

So, thank you for making my point for me.

 

[morqthana]

The figures you provide from the BEIS document actually make my case for me. If you understand the figures and how they are produced, you will note that the points made above (about non-dispatchability and unreliability) are not addressed in the production of these figures. The calculations assume that a given (for example) installation of wind turbines will operate at its expected load factor continually (i.e. as 'baseload' generation. [This assumption is documented in these reports]. The calculations also assume some rather fanciful load factors for (especially) offshore wind. 47%-60%? On which planet!

This planet, on which live people who are writing reports with projected performance based on expected improvements over the next 10-20 years, and where load factors of 47% over a rolling 12-month are already being achieved.

Just to take the first graph on the left for commissioning in 2025; the blue bar associated with Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT) is all theoretical 'Carbon' costs - in essence an imposition of additional costs, nothing to do with generation. Tax if you like, so not really a part of the cost of generation equation.

Indeed. Because there are no costs associated with climate change caused by pumping CO2 into the atmosphere, are there, so how desperately unfair it is to add costs to power generated by methods which pump CO2 into the atmosphere.

Note that no 'Carbon' costs are associated with the wind and solar systems despite the enormous input into manufacturing and installing these (tens of cubic metres of concrete anyone? transport? steel and material fabrication? all of these had no energy (i.e.'Carbon') input?)

And of course no concrete is used, nor steel fabricated, nor transport used, when nuclear or fossil plants are built.

The carbon cost in the charts is the operating one.

It almost seems as if you don't want to know.

Analysis: UK renewables still cheaper than gas, despite auction setback for offshore wind - Carbon Brief

Wind and solar remain the cheapest way to generate electricity in the UK as gas prices are around 100% higher than before the global energy crisis.

www.carbonbrief.org

"Despite subsequent project cost inflation due to the post-pandemic economic recovery, the gas crisis, and rising interest rates, offshore wind remains around a third cheaper than forecast wholesale prices set by gas of around £100/MWh for the middle of this decade." https://eciu.net/media/press-releas...n-a-year-in-savings-due-to-wind-auction-error

Even on the figures above, once you take out the 'tax' on gas,

The way you use the word tax, in quotes like that, says nothing good about your belief systems.

If you want to look at it another way, if the real world levelised cost of generation for Offshore wind was £44/MWh as given in your figure

At 2021 prices

then the manufacturers would have bitten the hand off the Government offering them £70/MWh in the recent Cfd auctions. In fact not one bid was received at that price, because the Wind Generators know that their real cost of generation is way higher than that.

£70/MWh? Or £44?

They made it work in Ireland

Minister Ryan welcomes hugely positive provisional results of first offshore wind auction

www.gov.ie

Thought you might enjoy the highlighted bit in this quote from the above

The auction results have surpassed expectations, both in terms of the total volume of renewable energy procured and the low price at which it has been secured. The hugely competitive price secured — at an average of €86.05/MWh — is one of the lowest prices paid by an emerging offshore wind market in the world. For comparison, the average wholesale electricity price in Ireland over the past 12 months was in excess of €200/MWh. It is expected that this price will save Irish electricity consumers hundreds of millions of euros per year.