Big Numbers today

[Vinty]

So if you have the Rona,and get hit by a bus...Have you died of the Rona?

I was told that Alcohol killed my grandfather.
I always thought he drank too much.
It turned out a 20 gallon barrel of guiness fell on him in the pub he worked in.
Causes of death can sometimes be misleading.

 

[motorbiking]

good reduction today
38.7% WoW over 20% for the week avg.
If this keeps up we will be avg 250 a day within 2 weeks.

 

[motorbiking]

netted off against the reduction in deaths due to reduced road traffic, and the reduction in deaths due to accidents at work, and the reduction in deaths due to drunks fighting outside pubs, and the reduction in asthma-related deaths due to the fall in pollution..

I think alcoholism and obesity have increased as result of lock-down. I've defiantly found a Covid-Kilo and my Gin stock is reducing.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

According to the news the number of Covid 19 cases in London is down to 24 per day.

There are noises from Number 10 about differing R rates across the country even just in England; London is down to 0.4 so they say figures are crashing.

good reduction today

We shouldn't be too complacent yet.

"Infection rate rises again in UK"
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52671694​

 

[SirGalahad]

Some articles on line are suggesting that it is being strongly encouraged to put Coronavirus as a cause of death down on the DC, even if it isn't.

The suggestion is that the Govt want as many deaths as possible attributable to COVID-19 so as to justify the extensive lockdown.

Some feel the the lockdown is Ultra Vires (outside of legal authority) and one businessman is launching a legal challenge:

https://www.theguardian.com/law/202...-coronavirus-lockdown-businessman-simon-dolan

The ONS sample testing over the last two weeks suggested that about 147k people have had the virus. That means roughly about 10k a day. We are getting about 3.5k a day positive cases. So 2/3 of covid positivers we are missing because they are either asymptomatic or there symptoms do not curently warrant a hospital visit.

So the opposite is more likely.

 

[motorbiking]

Media - making a lot of noise about the big drop on Sunday (-37%). No mention of the big increase on Saturday (+35%). Comparing Week on Week / day by day is really the only way to spot data trends.

Last week's avg was 14% decline, previous 23%. Its likely that the weekend numbers are simply outliers and will regress.

 

[durhamplumber]

Media - making a lot of noise about the big drop on Sunday (-37%). No mention of the big increase on Saturday (+

The govt and media has been criticised for emphasising deaths and not emphasising the vast majority of recoveries...Now they do the opposite and still criticised...Classic example of they cannot win with some

 

[JohnD]

The govt and media has been criticised for emphasising deaths and not emphasising the vast majority of recoveries...Now they do the opposite and still criticised...Classic example of they cannot win with some

Or to put it another way, they have been criticised for selectively publishing incomplete and misleading data, and they have also been criticised for selectively publishing incomplete and misleading data.

Classic example of doing the same thing and getting the same reaction.

Dum finds it surprising.

 

[durhamplumber]

Or to put it another way, they have been criticised for selectively publishing incomplete and misleading data, and they have also been criticised for selectively publishing incomplete and misleading data.

Classic example of doing the same thing and getting the same reaction.

Dum finds it surprising.

I would not put it like that .No..Emphasis rather than omission..But either way kind of proves my point..Your ilk will always find a way to criticise the tory govt no matter what.

 

[Notch7]

Your ilk will always find a way to find criticise the tory govt no matter what.

No, it is this specific Tory govt that is full of spivs, liars and snake oil salesmen, they are only there to feather their own nests.

 

[durhamplumber]

No, it is this specific Tory govt that is full of spivs, liars and snake oil salesmen, they are only there to feather their own nests.

Comecome Notch..Bit ingenious..You despize all things Tory,not the odd character..

 

[ajohn]

The ONS sample testing over the last two weeks suggested that about 147k people have had the virus. That means roughly about 10k a day. We are getting about 3.5k a day positive cases. So 2/3 of covid positivers we are missing because they are either asymptomatic or there symptoms do not curently warrant a hospital visit.

So the opposite is more likely.

Got a link?

Not what I heard. They have been testing a sample of the general population and 148k had the virus. That could be ~95k to 200k +. Can't remember but some range like that. This gives them an idea of what % of the general population are currently carrying the virus. it's very low and down to distancing. It would soon get back to how it was if that was dropped. They are using this % to calculate the probability of kids / teachers catching in schools. That is low. So if distancing isn't maintained that well still a chance it wont cause problems.

The bubbles in schools idea comes from Denmark. Population 5.8m, 10,968 cases 547 deaths.
https://www.theguardian.com/educati...ch-england-safe-reopening-of-schools-covid-19

Wish there was a better source.

As far as I know the increased general testing is being applied to critical workers. Numbers found with the virus varies but they have found some asymptotic cases. Yesterday they mentioned that the variation is reducing. The % of people carrying the virus is higher in this group. This may explain why people in the NHS are catching it - no protection from asymptotic cases as they wouldn't expect to have to wear a mask etc in some areas of a hospital.

There is another survey going on looking for people who have had it and have also gained immunity. They also want to know how long it lasts. As far as I know results haven't been reported yet. This might also give them a rough idea of % of people who have had it. Don't see how, maybe this is why they are interested in millions of immunity test kits.

There seems to be yet another test going on. Take some one that has definitely had it. Extract blood plasma and inject it into people who definitely haven't had it and see if they become immune. Details from a short news flash showing a doctor giving blood. It's also being used to check immunity test kits but some seem to feel that this can give misleading results.

 

[ajohn]

Media - making a lot of noise about the big drop on Sunday (-37%). No mention of the big increase on Saturday (+35%). Comparing Week on Week / day by day is really the only way to spot data trends.

Last week's avg was 14% decline, previous 23%. Its likely that the weekend numbers are simply outliers and will regress.

They showed yesterday that the hospital entry graph fall rate is now lower than it was initially. Bad BBC reporting. Oh dear R value much lower. It's not as simple as that when this is happening due to taking steps like lock down. It's likely to finish up with an R value averaging at 1 so numbers going in are more important really. Some will dies some wont. Getting it even lower will need further controls. Hence tracking.

 

[durhamplumber]

Extract blood plasma and inject it into people who definitely haven't had it and see if they become immune

Deliberately infect a healthy person with a deadly virus!.To see option A..develop immmunity...option B....develop Death.!..Me thinks it is not that simple.

 

[Deleted2797112]

There seems to be yet another test going on. Take some one that has definitely had it. Extract blood plasma and inject it into people who definitely haven't had it and see if they become immune. Details from a short news flash showing a doctor giving blood. It's also being used to check immunity test kits but some seem to feel that this can give misleading results.

Please. If you can't be arsed to listen to more than 2 words of a news report, don't post your poorly remembered, misunderstood, spun version here. Convalescent Plasma Therapy is an established treatment protocol. In the Covid-19 context it has been used since the very early days of the pandemic in Wuhan. It does NOT involve injecting anything into persons who have no disease. It does involve giving a plasma transplant containing antibodies to critically ill people whose treatment options are limited in an effort to boost their own antibody response.

https://www.nhsbt.nhs.uk/news/major-covid-19-convalescent-plasma-programme-announced/

https://www.nhsbt.nhs.uk/how-you-can-help/convalescent-plasma-clinical-trial/