Big Numbers today

[JohnD]

I've no idea - I'm only really tracking deaths. I'd say we rank 6th in the world now for testing, but some countries are using temperature checks as "tests".

I've been tested.

The number of tests performed is no longer published.

Instead, an aggregate number is shown that adds Tests Performed, and test kits put in the post and sent to individuals or remote centres.

This aggregate number which includes Tests Performed and Tests Not Performed, and Tests Not Received Back, and Tests Not Analysed, is listed as "Tests." It is obviously not a meaningful number.

This technique was introduced at the end of April to hide the fact that the UK had failed to meet its commitment to test 100,000 a day by the end of April. It includes tests that are unused, or unsuccessful, or were not returned, for example because many of them were sent out without return labels.

The number of tests performed on 30th April was about 82,000.

The number of tests performed yesterday is not known.

But the government reports that 71,644 people were tested on 13th May.

No improvement is seen.

It would if course be possible to report Number of Completed Tests Successfully Analysed And Reported By Test Laboratories, but this is not done.

 

[durhamplumber]

there is far more talk about why this country

Plenty Talk.Only conclusion from the UK haters

 

[ajohn]

They are guessing on lock down excess deaths other than some murders that seem to be related. There is a high proportion of care home etc CV deaths and an ONS whistle blower and some GP's reckon those are under reported. It'll take them ages to work out what the excess deaths really mean. Some cases might need tying down to a persons medical record to get some idea. People who die at home may get an autopsy but having direct experience of that relatives are asked if they want one done. Suppose if they death is suspicious they are always done. Police are involved and GP makes an informed guess. My father died in hospital. To be honest having seen what was put on the death certificate I wonder - due to several other people I know who died rather abruptly in hospital in the same way.

Blame - some one mentioned that the original plan was too flu related and should have been aimed at SARS that seems to be the reason for the study. Fact though earlier lock down would have reduced the peak sooner and to lower numbers. Also TV reports concerning ambulance drivers being made to make hard decisions - take to hospital or not. One of those early on was an NHS worker, told to isolate and died on the same night. Was he tested and included in the figures? Maybe some were getting to hospital too late. There have been reports that it can get very serious rather quickly.

There is another worrying high number but it doesn't sound like it is. 150,000 people currently carrying the virus in the general public based on a survey. Could be 100 too 200k+so no point in sticking to the reported 148,000. It seems this is too high a number to allow tracking to work well making it a real challenge. Best use the tracking app to give them a chance. Mind you China did use it from high numbers and it is bound to help but if all can't be tracked wont have max effect. The only reason it's as low as 150k is social distancing. They look at the 150k on the basis of how long they can infect others and probable numbers they are likely pass it on too so no more social distancing isn't on. They have mentioned min times to "lockdown" changes but they are being reported as actual dates. The press are silly f#rts.

Prevalence of people within the NHS, may include critical workers is much higher so if a vaccine looks promising that is where it's likely to be tested. It's not just a bit higher as well if the man is correct. I wonder if this will change where they wear masks etc. If it looks promising they aim to start making a vaccine very early on. So might turn out to be a waste of time - but a better option than waiting to be 100% sure. They wont be anyway compared with others that have been developed in the past.

Interesting - biobank people are being approached for monthly samples. The biobank has dna and all sorts on some people. Not sure about number but at least 100k.

 

[Trazor]

Very interesting Corona virus statistics, scroll down for data on every country.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Click on the worldometer top left, very interesting general world data.

 

[motorbiking]

convenient deflection from this govts shambolic performance.

there is far more talk about why this country has the 2nd highest deaths in the world.

You are aware that every country is using different criteria?

In Russia for example you risk falling out of a tall building if you question the stats

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52311014

 

[JohnD]

I am aware that some governments, such as the UK as illustrated above, manipulate the figures they publish, hoping to improve their image by dishonesty

"The UK Statistics Authority has raised fundamental concerns about the government’s reporting of covid-19 test numbers and called for greater transparency on how they present the data.

The watchdog’s intervention follows HSJ’s revelations that the government changed the way it counted the number of covid-19 tests in order to hit its target of 100,000 tests per day by the end of April.

UKSA Sir David Norgrove has today written to health secretary Matt Hancock to outline the concerns.

The letter said: “We urge government to update the covid-19 national testing strategy to show more clearly how targets are being defined, measured and reported.”

 

[durhamplumber]

You are aware that every country is using different criteria?

Notchy is not interested,as long as he can run the govt and country down.

 

[ajohn]

They seem to be hiding hospital entries now. Weekly figures

9,287 cases 2,665 death up to yesterday,

119,528 people tested but some are tested more than once.

No straight hospital entry information but in England it's about 1.5 people per 100,000 so about 6,000 over the same period. That's very about but within reason. The graph it's from is just intended to show trends. It may be tending to flatten. The test number doesn't tie in with numbers mentioned so I assume these are hospital tests but who knows.

May not be malicious but there were calls to keep hospital entry style reporting as it was. What they are really doing with testing is surveying largely in the NHS etc and care homes more recently and finding asymptotic people , I'd suspect of great interest in the NHS. They want to know why incidence is higher there and that may change working practice /explain problems.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

You are aware that every country is using different criteria?

As others have implied, UK did seem to have adopted the lowest possible criteria for recording deaths.
Only recently adding in the care home deaths, after much furore.

 

[Mottie]

Trouble is, there is still no true figures of those that died of Coronavirus. There are figures that show those that died after a positive test but no figures to show who actually died of it compared to those that died with it. I myself have prostate cancer. Its quite a low one but I have been told that I will more than likely die with it and not die because of it but if there were a prostate cancer pandemic and I died of a heart attack, I’d be included in the daily total of prostate deaths.

 

[JohnD]

Trouble is, there is still no true figures of those that died of Coronavirus.

The "excess deaths" figure is probably the most accurate.

It is not tricked into ignoring thousands of people who were not given the benefit of a test.

It effectively subtracts the deaths of the number of people who would have died anyway. For example, the number people who died of a heart attack, or falling off a ladder.

On a graph, the rise is clear and easy to see.

 

[motorbiking]

Yep - if you want to track the broadest set of all deaths associated with both the pandemic and the measures taken to control it and the impact of those measures, then excess deaths is the answer. We haven't seen any other credible cause of excess deaths.

 

[JohnD]

Yep - if you want to track the broadest set of all deaths associated with both the pandemic and the measures taken to control it and the impact of those measures

netted off against the reduction in deaths due to reduced road traffic, and the reduction in deaths due to accidents at work, and the reduction in deaths due to drunks fighting outside pubs, and the reduction in asthma-related deaths due to the fall in pollution..

 

[Doug99]

Its the rate of infections which will drive the change in lockdown restrictions

The number of tests performed is no longer published.

Instead, an aggregate number is shown that adds Tests Performed, and test kits put in the post and sent to individuals or remote centres.

This aggregate number which includes Tests Performed and Tests Not Performed, and Tests Not Received Back, and Tests Not Analysed, is listed as "Tests." It is obviously not a meaningful number.

This technique was introduced at the end of April to hide the fact that the UK had failed to meet its commitment to test 100,000 a day by the end of April. It includes tests that are unused, or unsuccessful, or were not returned, for example because many of them were sent out without return labels.

The number of tests performed on 30th April was about 82,000.

The number of tests performed yesterday is not known.

But the government reports that 71,644 people were tested on 13th May.

No improvement is seen.

It would if course be possible to report Number of Completed Tests Successfully Analysed And Reported By Test Laboratories, but this is not done.

Are you able to break down the figures of other nations' "testing strategy" as you have with the UK numbers above?
By all means criticize the UK, but only if the data you use is comparable. Or are you just using selective 'headlines' to make your argument?

 

[Vinty]

According to the news the number of Covid 19 cases in London is down to 24 per day.

In a fortnight the number of new Covid 19 cases in London will be zero.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/hea...-24-new-coronavirus-cases-a-day-a4441216.html