Big Numbers today

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I think the care home thing is more complex. We had a strategy to eject "bed blockers" from hospitals to free up space. In fact we sent people to care homes infected with Covid.

There have been cases where people out of hospital didn't take it to care homes. The one I recollect was multistorey and infection started on another section away from people taken in from hospital. Might pay to look at the care home guide. The only one I saw was EU UK combined but there will be a UK one some where.

The main point I was making is that when an infection gets there PPE is really needed. No chance without it.

Bed blockers - nice press type term. The brief called them people and movements in that direction go on all of the time. It's not unusual for some one to spend some time in hospital before ending up in care.
 
There is some evidence that we should have locked down earlier from an international travel perspective. It would have been hard to tell UK nationals returning home that they must stay put or go in to mandatory isolation.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52993734

Bed Blockers is the term used for people who are fit to leave hospital, but have no care place to go to.
 
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The Mission Impossible solution would be this looks serious and shut of air travel completely even before it got here and then repatriates and isolate as they did. Still need to arrange for essentials to come in which they did anyway. Net result our own economy carries on working to a much larger extent than it has.

Pity we weren't later. Other countries saw what happened. Some realised what would happen.

It sounds like the select committee came up with some numbers of deaths if lock down had been applied earlier today. I keep meaning to look as see what is on the Parliament Channel. The brief gave a better idea were we are today. From memory 5,000 new infections a day. Too high to change much at all. Plus a very high proportion of the population being susceptible. The stats seem to be here
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest

There were reports that the virus mutated on it's journey through China. A German said he reckoned their mutation was less lethal. The source for the link is somewhere around here
https://www.cogconsortium.uk/cog-uk...nd-source-of-virus-introductions-into-the-uk/
 
The survey seems to report a different number of deaths 4th to 10th June 1,294 and mentions for both Pillar 1 and 2 testing. I'm not sure if that is different to totalling the daily figures. Previous week was 1,747 so a good reduction anyway but 1519 the week before that.
 
R5L now.

Dr Chris Smith ; University of Cambridge virologist.

Taking about when the 'rona may have started.
Discussing the French case who was gravely ill in mid December 2019, and how he may have contracted it in mid November.

Then went on to data that no one has yet explained : that harvard researchers had examined satellite images of the hospital carparks in Wuhan in October 2019. The carparks were rammed, whereas in previous October's, they were quiet.

He then questioned why, in an area where a pandemic broke out, the hospitals were very full a month before the Chinese said the virus even existed.......
 
Wow. Thanks a bunch china, though to be fair most of our cases came from France, Belgium and Spain.
 
R5L now.

Dr Chris Smith ; University of Cambridge virologist.

Taking about when the 'rona may have started.
Discussing the French case who was gravely ill in mid December 2019, and how he may have contracted it in mid November.

Then went on to data that no one has yet explained : that harvard researchers had examined satellite images of the hospital carparks in Wuhan in October 2019. The carparks were rammed, whereas in previous October's, they were quiet.

He then questioned why, in an area where a pandemic broke out, the hospitals were very full a month before the Chinese said the virus even existed.......

He's good, he's one of my go-to sources for clear factual explanations.

I've had the suspicion for a while that this all kicked off earlier than has been admitted. There are quite a few (anecdotally) who appear to have been infected before it 'officially' started. I've posted this podcast previously about Andy Gill:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p08dnym5
 
It sounds like the select committee came up with some numbers of deaths if lock down had been applied earlier today.

If we accept that the number of new cases kept rising, then, after lockdown, it slowed, levelled and fell, are we willing to believe that lockdown cut the number of new cases?

and that the number of new cases was doubling every few days (certainly less than a week)?

If we accept that, then implementing lockdown when the number of infected people is, say, 100,000 people is obviously better than doing it when the number of infected people is 200,000

We can see here that UK was slower to take action than comparable countries such as Italy, France, Germany and Spain.

coronavirus-stringency-timeline-heatmap-mini.svg
 
And here are some Excess Deaths figures.

Look at the percentage increase for UK, Italy, France, Germany and Spain.

57%, 47%, 27%, 6%, 57%

http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2F6c0fb2cc-ab22-11ea-a766-7c300513fe47
 
And most of France's, Belgium's, and Spain's cases came from?.........


They mostly come from other people already in the country, infecting each other. Just like UK.

That's how exponential growth works.
 
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