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Anyway back on track - could be a good start to the week 36 53% reduction week on week. Fingers cross we keep the weekly toll under 1000.
Big Numbers today
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More so than you might seem to think. By luck I heard an R4 broadcast on what seems to have turned out to be vCJD before it was really recognised. Rather a long time before. One thing that was mentioned was that it seemed it can be a farmer related thing and thoughts that it was down to animal feed and other people that didn't agree.
It definitely was buried for some time after the problem was known.
Do you eat chicken ? You'll probably wonder why I ask that. My nan used to feed me grain fed chicken now and again. What a difference and also the sudden change in it when it became more popular.
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The thing with CJD is we don’t know the impact yet. It’s thought it may lay dormant for 50 years. We can’t say that of Covid.
if we’d suddenly had all our hospitals maxed out due to an unknown flu. It would have been all over the press.
if we’d suddenly had all our hospitals maxed out due to an unknown flu. It would have been all over the press.
The lockdown has reduced the number of new cases and deaths
So far, only about 1 in a thousand of the UK population has died from COVID, which is not enough. Costly older consumers in care homes have been reduced. The US has not yet matched our achievement but is doing its best to catch up.
So to improve profits in pubs, restaurants, shops and commercial property, and to reduce future care and pension costs, we have decided to increase the number of infections and deaths. It may settle down to between 1 and 6 deaths per hundred, varying with age and prosperity.
Opening up in China and US are increasing the rates as expected.
Think of the deaths not as people, but as Expendable Economic Work Units and you will agree that a modest percentage of attrition is acceptable.
So far, only about 1 in a thousand of the UK population has died from COVID, which is not enough. Costly older consumers in care homes have been reduced. The US has not yet matched our achievement but is doing its best to catch up.
So to improve profits in pubs, restaurants, shops and commercial property, and to reduce future care and pension costs, we have decided to increase the number of infections and deaths. It may settle down to between 1 and 6 deaths per hundred, varying with age and prosperity.
Opening up in China and US are increasing the rates as expected.
Think of the deaths not as people, but as Expendable Economic Work Units and you will agree that a modest percentage of attrition is acceptable.
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I did see that China has an outbreak in one city on the news. Korea gets infections now and again and have done for some time. China has also re introduced daily exercise for all in one city. The rest may have been doing it all along.
Given the nature of CV19 it's what we can expect. Numbers are the questionable part. Get the infected down to the level Korea did and match their response time and results should be the same. China probably did better in that respect. A news item not sure about where but highly likely to be Korea showed electronic tracking being complete in 2hrs. There manual tracking could be pretty quick too due to lower numbers to track.
Current state of pillar 1 and 2 testing for new infections, last 2 weeks. London's inset. Most recent right.
Personally I feel that total deaths could be way way higher than their "reasonable worst case". Lot depends on treatment. When people look at cases as a % of population what we have mostly seen relates to 20+ Steady increase to 50 - 59 and then less to the same at 70-79. Then big increase 80+. That from Pillar 1 but Pillar 2 is much the same but a lager drop of above 50-59. More detected below that too. I assume these may not end up in hospital. Chances of death appear to increase from about 45. What isn't clear is the general condition of people who survive.
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In the cess-pit known as London, no one is wearing masks and gloves when out and about. Stores have markings on the floors, people are only being let in a few at a time and people are also queuing at the tills 6ft apart. BUT... when people pass each other in the aisles, there is no 6ft space between them. Staff are mingling as usual - do gloves and masks and 6ft doesn't not apply to them?
Everyone's making up their own rules and choosing whether to follow them or not!
Everyone's making up their own rules and choosing whether to follow them or not!
That isn't true, is it.
Not from what I have seen. I feel like I am the only clown when I am wearing my mask and gloves.
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There has been a bit of an uptick on infections, but overall we are still making headway to reduce deaths. I think the jury is out on the 2M guideline and the wearing of gloves and face masks is not law. Its only public transport that face masks are law http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/592/regulation/3/made
The gov wont push masks for the general public only when using public transport in England. Those have to be worn. Wales and Scotland advised to wear them to varying degrees but lockdown conditions not changed as much as ours have today. Wales have recently said 3 layer on public transport.
My wife tells me more are wearing them around here, local shops B'ham with a couple of small supermarkets.
At least those graphs I posted show that they do have some granulation on reporting cases. I am wondering why B'ham appears to have suppressed data on one but do know deaths are levelled out to low numbers. Infections - pass and in some ways that is far more important now.
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thought I'd post this before the numbers for the rest of the week spoil it.
I did see a report than when you halve distancing from 2m to 1m, the number of infections doubles.
So we can expect to lose twice as many Expendable Work Units.
Presumably we have plenty so this is considered of no consequence.
The masks, distancing and shops is a strange mix. It has been mentioned briefly but not pushed. There has been comments about the effect 3 layer masks have on spreading distance even with coughs and it was very significant. Do the asymptomatic spread it? Even talking needs social distancing. Singing even more.
Then talk of distance. From TV broadcasts many wear them elsewhere and mentioning China and 1m is a big joke unless some one say masks achieve nothing. Now it's wear them in public transport when some distancing still seems to be enforced. Capacity is currently reduced.
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