Immigration Crisis

[Pat ex]

You really are The Humanitarian, aren't you.
Let's seperate the legal migrants from the illegal immigrants for a moment and try to avoid conflating the two,,.
What 'safe and legal' routes do you suggest the govt. provides for illegal immigrants; other than the ones already in place for legal traffic, that is.

There isn't any legal route for your "illegal immigrants". There are, from time to time, temporary country specific routes (E.g. Ukraine, Afghanistan, Hong Kong, etc). There are other schemes, such as the Family Reunion scheme but we've discussed in depth the arduous, difficult and dangerous travelling concerned in that process.

I've already suggested a fortnightly ferry. That will easily accommodate the annual flow of the channel crossings.

Because the ferry would not be considered a rescue ship (in the terms of SOLAS), the ferry would also serve as temporary refugee accommodation, and the asylum process could begin immediately.
Two weeks is considered far too long for immediate refugee accommodation for immediate processing centres. So onward re-accommodation would be completed well before the next departure.

The ferry service would immediately disrupt the criminals market, allow SAR service to return to their core service, and release the money given to the French
And most importantly, provide a safe and legal route.

 

[Odds]

You propose laying on a ferry service for illegal immigrants in order for them to cross the Channel to claim asylum to transform them into asylum seekers; and, maintaining a floating hostel for the illegal immigrants while they wait...so can we presume more than one ferry will be used in this govt. sponsored boondoggle, say 1,2,3 for luck?

 

[ajohn]

While France and Italy argue about high-profile cases of dramatic sea rescues in the central Mediterranean, other EU capitals are more concerned about land routes through the Balkans.

Mediterranean countries closer to North African shores, like Italy and Greece,

Some from both will be aiming to get here. Others will also have specific eventual destinations.

The EU are changing the way they generate statistics on refugees however there are signs that for intsnce France does handle them

Statistics - Asylum Information Database | European Council on Refugees and Exiles

Overview of statistical practice In France, detailed statistics on asylum applications and first instance decisions are published annually by the Office of Protection of Refugees and Stateless Persons (OFPRA) in its activity reports. The next OFPRA Activity Report will be published in spring...

asylumineurope.org

Germany too

Deportation numbers Germany 2008-2021 | Statista

In 2021, 11,982 deportations were conducted from Germany.

www.statista.com

However they also do deport within the EU. Crooks etc probably. Also

https://asylumineurope.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/report-download_aida_de_2019update.pdf

There is one for the UK too. I just found that the links work if I use open in a new tab. There are a number of them.

https://asylumineurope.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/AIDA-UK_2020update.pdf

LOL We have a Clandestine Threat Commander for the boats. A term like that can only come from a xenophobe or some one trying to make use of popularism. Popularism is an increasing feature of right wing politics. Suppose it gets votes but is unlikely to result in solved problems.

Refugees are an international problem. That means it needs an international solution, Something politicians are not really that good at. Own interests figure too much so they just moan at each other and may even cause their populations to do the same - moan,

The Italian lady is very right wing. Says she will behave, that gets her elected and now goes radical. Some have noted the the Conservative Party name is misleading. These days they are radicals and have been for years now. It's questionable if many of the changes have been beneficial, In this current area so far just ineffective so blame some one else.

The various conventions have their interesting aspects concerning refugees. The only water tight one is the refugee convention, The maritime one is a little odd in some ways. The one usually linked to appear to relate to merchant ships that only sink if they are hit. They are pretty clear about territorial water requirements and the UK France aspect is a touch unusual as they meet, each being responsible for their own area. You'd think if lives are in danger little would matter who did the rescuing. However............................

 

[Pat ex]

You propose laying on a ferry service for illegal immigrants in order for them to cross the Channel to claim asylum to transform them into asylum seekers; and, maintaining a floating hostel for the illegal immigrants while they wait...so can we presume more than one ferry will be used in this govt. sponsored boondoggle, say 1,2,3 for luck?

Not quite.
The main thrust of your understanding was correct.
But there would be no need to use more than one ferry.

Because the ferry would not be considered a rescue ship (in the terms of SOLAS), the ferry would also serve as temporary refugee accommodation, and the asylum process could begin immediately.
Two weeks is considered far too long for immediate refugee accommodation for immediate processing centres. So onward re-accommodation would be completed well before the next departure.

What's the alternative, persistent and continuous criminalising of refugees, needless additional loss of life, resources wasted on futile and unsuccessful attempts to deal with the problem?

And, as a benefit, additional migration to meet the labour shortage. The UNHCR already questions why refugees are not allowed to work.

Edit, I just noticed that I'd typed "needles" instead of "needless". I wasn't suggesting euthanasia.

 

[Pat ex]

They could always build them a bridge or a second channel tunnel, so they could make there way safely across, without hindrance.

It might be ready in time for exodus of the UK due to climate change.

 

[Pat ex]

I think Boris already thought of a bridge...

...although i wonder what the good folk of yon' harbour will think of a ferry full of illegal immigrants parked outside their sea-front vista and how long it would take for the DM headlines to remind the govt. of its influence over the stout-hearted English Yeoman of the Shires.

24 hours is the recommended immediate accommodation for the initial processing of asylum seekers.

Governments have to take difficult decisions.
If the government only took decisions based on public opinion, we'd still be hanging criminals, probably publicly. There's be no tax, nor road excise duty, etc.

I would add that governments unceasingly publish propaganda and public awareness papers. The message is very dependent on the political leanings of the Government.
In the last ten years it's been very much a "blame the migrants" policy. This could and should be changed. People are waking up to the current government's blame game.

 

[motorbiking]

You can't know their time of departure, their speed is a pure guess, and your guesses tend to be coloured by your desirable outcome.

And the way to stop incidents like this is to provide safe and legal routes, but people like you refuse to even consider them.

Ridiculous. Just because you can’t doesn’t make it impossible.

Here is part of the process

 

[Pat ex]

Ridiculous. Just because you can’t doesn’t make it impossible.

Here is part of the process

So what time did they depart?

You can't know their time of departure, their speed is a pure guess, and your guesses tend to be coloured by your desirable outcome.

You can't know where you are if you don't know where you started from.

 

[motorbiking]

.

 

[motorbiking]

So what time did they depart?

You can't know where you are if you don't know where you started from.

I’ve already told you.

 

[Pat ex]

I’ve already told you.

Then you won't mind reminding me, to save me wading through the numerous postings to check that you have told me.
What time did they depart? Where did they start from?

How do you know this?
How can you be sure of its accuracy?

 

[motorbiking]

A reminder of the task. Determine the probability that the migrant boat was in U.K. waters and drifted back in to French waters, where they were found.

We know where they were at 1pm as we know the location of vessels who sighted them, we know where they were headed. We know their max speed irrespective of power. We know the tide and wind at that time, we know the speed of the vessel and we know the closest point of approach (3nm south east from U.K. waters )at any point along U.K. waters.

Weather: Southerly F7-F8
Time of departure around 11-11:30am assuming they struggled for a while. (HW-1) dover reference. Course to steer around 290 degrees
approximate speed 5-6kts + the benefit of around 1kt of tide assistance and a bit of help from the wind.
Wave height 1.5M

Its therefore very difficult to believe they ever made it to UK waters. They were barely halfway across French territorial waters. Everything was pushing them towards the UK at the time they got in difficulty.

Assumptions.
They knew which way to point their boat.
They proceeded at best speed given the conditions.
The vessel was a typical 8m inflatable weighing around 2.4 tonnes carrying 27-30 people powered by a 15hp motor, though we don’t need to know that, given this vessel had no ability to plane we can calculate the max speed (hull speed) irrelevant of the motor. This would have been around 7kts but probably less given then weather. Don’t need to know where they departed from

 

[Pat ex]

A reminder of the task. Determine the probability that the migrant boat was in U.K. waters and drifted back in to French waters, where they were found.

We know where they were at 1pm as we know the location of vessels who sighted them, we know where they were headed. We know their max speed irrespective of power. We know the tide and wind at that time, we know the speed of the vessel and we know the closest point of approach (3nm south east from U.K. waters )at any point along U.K. waters.

Assumptions.
They knew which way to point their boat.
They proceeded at best speed given the conditions.
The vessel was a typical 8m inflatable weighing around 2.4 tonnes carrying 27-30 people powered by a 15hp motor, though we don’t need to know that, given this vessel had no ability to plane we can calculate the max speed (hull speed) irrelevant of the motor. This would have been around 7kts but probably less given then weather. Don’t need to know where they departed from

I'll take that as an admission that you don't know where they departed from, nor what time they departed.
If you don't know those details the rest of your assumptions are worthless.

 

[JP_]

Yay, we stopped an immigrant!

‘Treated like a criminal’: Nepali student wrongly detained at UK border loses uni place

Sulav Khadka was interrogated and held in custody despite providing proof of his place and finances

www.theguardian.com

 

[motorbiking]

I'll take that as an admission that you don't know where they departed from, nor what time they departed.
If you don't know those details the rest of your assumptions are worthless.

Don't need to know any of that, first distress call was in French waters, survivors found in French waters, mobile phones of illegal migrants all connected to French networks, everyone who reported sighting them were in French waters. Tide and weather did not push them back. The French failed to rescue people drowning in their waters.

How about you provide some evidence that they were in UK waters?