Oh Rwanda

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I read that Russia now has a trade surplus twice as large as the previous year, thanks to sanctions.
Imports of luxury goods into Russia have slumped while its exports of oil gas and other commodities has grown, this has led to its growing trade surpluses.
Russia itself, unlike the EU is food and energy secure.
It seems that the EU is pointing a gun at its head and threatening to shoot itself if the Russians don't back down.

There hasn't been many reports out of Russia but like all it's been having inflation problems. The ruble value seems to be more or less back where it was. I'm not sure if they can grow say bananas and oranges but would suspect they can match the UK in terms of what they can grow.

Lots of countries are pointing a gun at their heads not just some of the EU. Italy uses a higher % of Russian gas than Germany. Some Eastern European countries use it too. The rest that applies to many countries is various raw materials and grains. They did announce a drop in grain exports though last year, It seems it will take us 12months to end Russian imports and we aren't what could be called a manufacturing country. There is some though and prices of some materials have rocketed already. A pundit reckons that will get worse as supply lines dry up - stuff that is already in the system getting used up.

Germany being Germany I suspect they will do what they have said they will but 2 years may be ambitious.Their industry may shift away from gas too if they use much of it but that needs more electricity. So they shift totally to liquefied gas that doesn't mean the supplies needed are available. That like oil will need to be boosted. That probably needs more plant in countries that can supply it - more gas ships for certain.

A man Ukraine had his say yesterday, He wants 1,000 aircraft, 1000 tanks and 1000 troop carriers. He then added that oil production from places must also be boosted to make up for what Russia exported. ;) I'll put that bluntly. At least one of them knows that the world can't just stop. There are other things too though and not just gas.

They hit a tank repair facility in Kyev yesterday and issued a warning that they will do more of that if Ukraine does certain things and included other legitimate targets including administration centres. Weird, They seem to know they haven't done much of that.

They have given the remaining soldiers in Mariupol the chance to surrender. They are in a very large steel plant which fits in with other reports. Also cleared people out of the surrounding buildings for what will happen next if they don't surrender. All reported to the UN etc. The time period they allowed is up now but no one knows what has happened. Attempts to contact the Azov brigade who are known to be there has failed. There aren't any clear indications on the numbers there.
 
I read that Russia now has a trade surplus twice as large as the previous year, thanks to sanctions.
Imports of luxury goods into Russia have slumped while its exports of oil gas and other commodities has grown, this has led to its growing trade surpluses.
Russia itself, unlike the EU is food and energy secure.
It seems that the EU is pointing a gun at its head and threatening to shoot itself if the Russians don't back down.
It's not going to be pretty in a few years. Now Europe has decided to pull the plug their gas and oil
They hit a tank repair facility in Kyev yesterday and issued a warning that they will do more of that if Ukraine does certain things and included other legitimate targets including administration centres. Weird, They seem to know they haven't done much of that
It's because it's pointless militarily. The missiles cost money and they don't have that many in stock
 
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Britain has promised Rwanda an initial £120m as part of an “economic transformation and integration fund”, but the UK will be paying for operational costs too. A set amount of funding will be allocated for each migrant, expected to cost between £20,000 and £30,000 a person for the flight to Rwanda, and the first three months of accommodation there.

So, this money saving idea costs over £20,000 for the first three months on top of the 120 million and we don't even have a firm cost. this is getting worse and worse.
 
So, this money saving idea costs over £20,000 for the first three months on top of the 120 million and we don't even have a firm cost. this is getting worse and worse.
you are missing the bigger picture - once potential refugees realise getting over the channel means the first flight into deepest Africa - they will be staying in France or Spain or Italy - so even if it costs a million pound per refugee to send them to rwanda then it will still be considerably cheaper than where we are heading. If we continue to make it easier and easier there will be a 100,000 or more per year
 
prices of some materials have rocketed already
My daughters husband owns a builders suppliers on the Irish border.
Last week he was up early, he was ringing other suppliers trying to get a decent price for fertiliser, he said the price is going through the roof.
Gas and Potash which are used in the production of fertiliser are getting so expensive, some production plants may have to close, with farmers saying they may have to buy less fertiliser, means less food being grown and higher prices.
 
If we continue to make it easier and easier there will be a 100,000 or more per year

They haven't really. Some are always deported. The whole refugee area is disturbing a number of western countries - here's why

2021: Additional challenges
Around 4.4 million people worldwide are registered as asylum seekers. The biggest increase (more than 50% on figures from 2020) in the displaced was seen in Africa, said UNHCR. Many of those people were internally displaced in “dozens of countries.”

It's probably tricky to get accurate numbers as troubles have a tendency to keep occurring and inflating the numbers.
 
farmers saying they may have to buy less fertiliser, means less food being grown and higher prices.

Same indirectly applies to milk. Reduce fertiliser use and feedstock quality and quantity drops which in turn according to a farmer will reduce milk production. It's what he has done to keep his costs down. Exaggeration - time will tell. It seems most of the stuff needed for fertiliser comes out of Ukraine and Russia.
 
you are missing the bigger picture - once potential refugees realise getting over the channel means the first flight into deepest Africa - they will be staying in France or Spain or Italy - so even if it costs a million pound per refugee to send them to rwanda then it will still be considerably cheaper than where we are heading. If we continue to make it easier and easier there will be a 100,000 or more per year
That's a series big assumptions.

If we were a grown up country we'd have done some modeling to try to work out if it is going to reduce the number of people hopping on boats and modeled the costs. I haven't seen any claims about what effect it will have with any numbers attached yet.

The speculation is that it'll only be single males shipped there, so it won't stop families. So it won't stop all migration, just encourage more children to try the journey.
My daughters husband owns a builders suppliers on the Irish border.
Last week he was up early, he was ringing other suppliers trying to get a decent price for fertiliser, he said the price is going through the roof.
Gas and Potash which are used in the production of fertiliser are getting so expensive, some production plants may have to close, with farmers saying they may have to buy less fertiliser, means less food being grown and higher prices.
Food prices are going to go up as the Russian invasion of Ukraine has disrupted their planting. Which makes sense, it's hard to do Clarksons farm when you're being systematically raped and executed.
 
you are missing the bigger picture - once potential refugees realise getting over the channel means the first flight into deepest Africa - they will be staying in France or Spain or Italy - so even if it costs a million pound per refugee to send them to rwanda then it will still be considerably cheaper than where we are heading. If we continue to make it easier and easier there will be a 100,000 or more per year

Many do seem to be missing cause and effect, assuming that the numbers crossing will not be deterred - so will we have to fund vast numbers being deported to Rwanda. That is the whole point of the exercise, to deter them from risking a channel crossing.
 
Many do seem to be missing cause and effect, assuming that the numbers crossing will not be deterred - so will we have to fund vast numbers being deported to Rwanda. That is the whole point of the exercise, to deter them from risking a channel crossing.
Since most of them will probably get asylum anyway, why would it deter them?
 
That's a series big assumptions.

If we were a grown up country we'd have done some modeling to try to work out if it is going to reduce the number of people hopping on boats and modeled the costs. I haven't seen any claims about what effect it will have with any numbers attached yet.

The speculation is that it'll only be single males shipped there, so it won't stop families. So it won't stop all migration, just encourage more children to try the journey.

It is mostly males making the trip by a very large margin. Why does something with so obvious an outcome, need to be modelled at all? It is simple common sense that it will work as designed. Some things are obvious, some not - this is one is obvious to work.
 
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