The transition to EVs

[ajohn]

charging points are becoming more common

It takes around 5min to refill a tank with about 400mile range, diesel or petrol. An exceedingly high powered charger takes about 1/2hr. Just on that basis number of pumps would need multiplying by 6 and some one could still find themselves hanging about near 1/2hr before they could plug in. That is with ~100kw charger, 20min with 150kw. Work out what 20 of those would need in total. Probably getting near what a rather small subs station could supply. This would need an HV supply to bring the current down.

 

[Harry Bloomfield]

People forget that early motorists bought cans of petrol from chemists’ shops.
Eventually petrol pumps arrived at garages, then filling stations.

In the very early days, when cars didn't travel far and they were quite a rare sight.

charging points are becoming more common and loads of petrol stations in my area have closed down in the last 20 odd years. Mostly for housing.

The older, inefficient ones, probably built for personal service by attendants. Where I live there are more and larger petrol stations, than there were when I first moved here. Petrol stations can be built anywhere, they are supplied by tanker. You cannot fill a tanker and deliver the contents along a street, to each house filled with electricity, it needs infrastructure all the way from where it it generated.

 

[Diydavey]

Was watching a tv prog on ch5 the other night re EVs and some of the challenges we face transitioning to them. One of the main thrusts was, at present, EV sales are outstripping available infrastructure e.g. charging locations, home charging options etc. This evidently needs to change i.e. adequate infrastructure needs to be in place first.

Another point raised was timescales around the transition and how, when it comes to new vehicle sales, the time will come when as a consumer your only option will be an EV (new petrol/diesel banned.) So in a sense, our hands will be forced.

However, this got me thinking. How exactly is the UK government going to manage the outright ban on the use of existing petrol/diesel vehicles for domestic consumers? Let's say for the sake of conversation there's an outright ban on the sale of new petrol/diesel cars by 2030. Clear enough, quite a definitive line in the sand. However, let's say you've bought a shiny new petrol car in 2029. You might want to run it to 2040 or beyond.

So, any ideas on how they'll introduce a transition to an outright ban on the use or sale of any petrol/diesel vehicles? Surely they'll need to set a date of something like 2050 (at the earliest) to give people time to fully transition and for fossil fuel vehicle usage to decline and cease at a reasonable rate?

There won't be a ban on petrol and diesel cars but there will be a massive tax that puts them out of the range of most people. Gas guzzling cars won't disappear neither will private jets and yachts

 

[IT Minion]

It takes around 5min to refill a tank with about 400mile range, diesel or petrol. An exceedingly high powered charger takes about 1/2hr. Just on that basis number of pumps would need multiplying by 6 and some one could still find themselves hanging about near 1/2hr before they could plug in. That is with ~100kw charger, 20min with 150kw. Work out what 20 of those would need in total. Probably getting near what a rather small subs station could supply. This would need an HV supply to bring the current down.

That's ignoring charging at home, or the office, or the supermarket, or the car park.

Charging at home makes up something like 90% of all charging at the moment. That's going to fall when everyone charges their cars as the people without the ability to charge at home join in, but it's still going to be the majority of charging.

But the national Grid agrees with you, they had a paper out five years ago or so pointing out where they have HV lines going near motorways or existing substations.

It's just engineering, there's no fundamental challenge to having that many chargers, it's just a huge change.

 

[IT Minion]

Solid state batteries will increase range of the average vehicle to 500, 600, 700+ miles. They are much lighter, much cleaner and charge

I doubt it. No matter how cheap or light they get or how efficient EVs get there'll always be the ability to reduce the size of the battery and reduce the price. Over 300 miles there's fewer and fewer use cases that benefit.

Also at the moment the limit on the number of EVs that are built are the number of batteries made. By dividing that 600 mile battery in half you can sell two cars. That's more profit.

Also, that's assuming solid state batteries ever turn up. They've always been 5+ years from being in mass production.

 

[Tigercubrider]

It takes around 5min to refill a tank with about 400mile range, diesel or petrol. An exceedingly high powered charger takes about 1/2hr. Just on that basis number of pumps would need multiplying by 6 and some one could still find themselves hanging about near 1/2hr before they could plug in. That is with ~100kw charger, 20min with 150kw. Work out what 20 of those would need in total. Probably getting near what a rather small subs station could supply. This would need an HV supply to bring the current down.

Every new building where I work has a load of chargers in the car park, and they are increasing the charger numbers in the other car parks as time goes on. The new building that we are planning to move in in July 23 will be highly efficient with solar panels on the roof and led lighting. It is supposed to be carbon neutral apart from some machines that do take us over the edge. This obviously won’t generate car energy but the site is decreasing it’s non green energy reliance and any energy saved helps with car charging.

 

[ajohn]

I doubt it. No matter how cheap or light they get or how efficient EVs get there'll always be the ability to reduce the size of the battery and reduce the price. Over 300 miles there's fewer and fewer use cases that benefit.

Also at the moment the limit on the number of EVs that are built are the number of batteries made. By dividing that 600 mile battery in half you can sell two cars. That's more profit.

Also, that's assuming solid state batteries ever turn up. They've always been 5+ years from being in mass production.

You would probably find that a high proportion of use would fall into say a 50mile range with workplace charging rather than 300 or more . That also reduces the recharge needs. Realistic leisure use probably needs a higher range. Think in terms of day trips, not lands end to john o'groats.

A national grid person likened every one having a high range ev to adding an additional house to the grid for each one and pointed out that due to cost there is no way anyone will update it to cope. The load depends on usage and charge times. There will be more electrical use anyway due to house heating even with insulation.

Jam tomorrow in terms of major advances in batteries isn't unusual. Improvements yes but a lot of work has already been done on Li. Sodium Sulphur was seen as the answer to grid storage and some have been built but Li seems to be the choice now as costs have fallen. Tesla seems to be into building them
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battery_storage_power_station

I'd be incline to think that price reduction is more likely than super technology but that can always have a chance of cropping up. I'd strongly suspect that the bulk of the price of an EV such as Tesla is the battery. Buckets of electronics in very high volumes never cost that much you might think they do if faced with buying a car ECU but the price then is way way over what the makers pay. Millions of controller and electric motors intended for EV's will get cheaper. Hard to predict how much. Then the same question about batteries. I also wonder how much lithium there is around.

 

[jeds]

I doubt it. No matter how cheap or light they get or how efficient EVs get there'll always be the ability to reduce the size of the battery and reduce the price. Over 300 miles there's fewer and fewer use cases that benefit.

Also at the moment the limit on the number of EVs that are built are the number of batteries made. By dividing that 600 mile battery in half you can sell two cars. That's more profit.

Also, that's assuming solid state batteries ever turn up. They've always been 5+ years from being in mass production.

You must have been one of those that said; 'gigabyte hard drive! nobody will ever need a drive that big'. That might be why you've stayed at IT minion level.

 

[IT Minion]

You must have been one of those that said; 'gigabyte hard drive! nobody will ever need a drive that big'. That might be why you've stayed at IT minion level.

That quote is an urban legend. And it was around needing more than 640k of RAM.

You said most EVs will end up with huge ranges, I think you're wrong because it's alway going to be a waste of money for most people and people will choose to save a few thousand pounds having a 300 or 400 mile EV over a 600-700 mile one.

We'll just have to wait and see.

 

[Harry Bloomfield]

You said most EVs will end up with huge ranges, I think you're wrong because it's alway going to be a waste of money for most people and people will choose to save a few thousand pounds having a 300 or 400 mile EV over a 600-700 mile one.

Simple physics come into play as well, in limiting electrical storage.

 

[motorbiking]

I think we are forgetting that most EVs refuel while being parked on the drive. With increased working from home, I no longer drive anything like the distance I used to. A 300 mile model 3 dual motor or performance would be fine for me.

10-12 solar panels should provide a weekly tank of fuel.

 

[IT Minion]

Average UK milage is around 10,000. Roughly 3 miles per kWh means you'd need 3,300kWh. Over a year that's a 3.5kW solar panel array which is indeed a bit on the small side.

Obvious caveats are that you'd be producing far too much in the summer and very little in the winter, but averaged out...

 

[Harry Bloomfield]

Average UK milage is around 10,000. Roughly 3 miles per kWh means you'd need 3,300kWh. Over a year that's a 3.5kW solar panel array which is indeed a bit on the small side.

Obvious caveats are that you'd be producing far too much in the summer and very little in the winter, but averaged out...

Which means by your calculation, everyone must sit and twiddle their thumbs in winter, if they rely on solar.

 

[ajohn]

We'll just have to wait and see.

That really is a fact.

I could currently use a hybrid. It's not entirely clear those will disappear. Software has always been part of my work and modelling vehicles has figured for a while. One option on a hybrid is a motor driving a generator. Pass on cost effectiveness etc but an EV can avoid the need for a gearbox and those are never that efficient and result in a significant power loss. I have also worked on EV controllers, no gear box so with the correct type of control a conventional gearbox isn't needed.

Early work that lacked suitable batteries but ok for feasibility and some usage but 1 tonne of lead acid batteries doesn't exactly help.

 

[motorbiking]

Hybrids are as end of life as petrol and diesel according to the strategy.