Ukraine counter offensive

[IT Minion]

The amunition discussion is a bit more complex than the sky report covers. Ukraine is still using a lot of unguided munitions. NATO front line kit uses Excalibur and similar stuff where you need a small fraction of the number of shells.

The initial order for Excalibur rounds was cut down massively, because it was so effective there was no need for that many shells.

 

[Justin Passing]

It's T-72B3M , or T-72B4 , details for which are all over Wikipedia etc. They're a darned good tank, apparently.
There's a clip of a T-72 taking a hit from a guided anti-tank missile, and driving off. Doesn't say which types, though.

Tanks can't fire those Excaliburs, they're for M-777s and the multiple rocket launchers.
The Russkies do have T-72 fired "9M119 Refleks (NATO codename: AT-11 Sniper) guided anti-tank missiles" - how many, no idea.
I found "batch" in one context was 20 tanks.

Ru is currently moving the front line forwards around Bahkmut, they say. Ukr may let them, rather than spend a load of effort and men.
Everyone learned from Rommel - appear to withdraw, then ambush.
Western tanks may not arrive for a couple of months.

I checked the armour on the T-62s. 40mm top armour. Eouww. Their shells may be bad news for a Ukranian artillery piece, but I wouldn't want to be a Russkie inside the turret of one.

A bad-case scenario:- R advances , and prepares enough fancy missiles to knock out Leopards and Challengers if and when they get there.

The Leopard 1's some said they'd send, are nothing special at all.
Netherlands and Denmark have dropped out.

 

[Odds]

• The European Union’s top diplomat has urged countries to join Germany in sending tanks to Ukraine after media reports that Denmark and the Netherlands said they would not deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks.
• NATO countries are ramping up the production of artillery munitions as Ukraine is burning through shells much faster than the West can make them, the alliance said.
• Ukraine’s state arms producer said it had launched joint production of shells with a central European country in NATO, and that it plans to develop and produce other arms and military hardware with allies.

As the Russian offensive draws closer it's going to be a big challenge to keep Ukraine supplied with munitions to help them resist an assault on the center of the line around Bakhmut; threatening to retake all the ground lost during the counter-offensive of Autumn. It's going to be a race against time to maintain supplies and train troops on new weapon systems, then bring them into service in time to make a difference to the attacks.

 

[carmanmemoranda]

If the West is struggling with supplies, from various sources. Then Russia must be struggling too

 

[Odds]

If the West is struggling with supplies, from various sources. Then Russia must be struggling too

Not so much, since their stockpiles were prepared in advance while Europe and America weren't geared up for a prolonged conflict - and Russian supply lines are shorter. It all depends how Ukrainian forces absorb the initial attacks, regroup and defend prepared lines behind the front.
What really hurts Russian troops are the 'shoot and scoot' attacks deployed by Ukranian special forces. Hit supply lines, disrupt communications and avoid large scale confrontation wherever possible. As long as they resist, Russia will not win.

 

[Vinty]

Remind us again, which country invaded another sovereign country in Europe last year?

I thought the invasion began in 2014.

 

[gant]

Where's old duffers posts?
Found them entertaining rather than all these speculative posts on the subject.
Thought truth went out of the window when there was a war on.

 

[Justin Passing]

I thought the invasion began in 2014.

It did.
Ukraine didn't have much of a military anything then. SInce 2014 they've been upgrading the old soviet stuff, building the army, had iirc $2.7bn in clobber from the USA including Javelins, and been making their own anti-invader stuff.

Pity the rest of Europe didn't.
Now both sides are using up their best stuff, with the west having sod all to give them, not really wanting a proper fight with Pootin.

Poots probably didn't count of not being able to use his air force. I hope Ukraine doesn't use up its anti-aircraft missiles on Russia;'s steam - powered tanks.

 

[Justin Passing]

I've heard a couple of reports from the front now saying that R's planes are in use.
It would be overwhelmingly bad news for Ukraine if R have a way to void most A-A but still bomb and use their tank-busters.

 

[Notch7]

It seems that this conflict will end up in military exhaustion and there will have to be a peace agreement.

 

[transam]

Nato countries have a stock of some thing like 10000 advanced battle tanks ???

So far the Ukraine has received pledges for barely half of the 300 promised ???

 

[noseall]

Where's old duffers posts?
Found them entertaining

Comedic value.

 

[gant]

Liked the one about firing cabbages, you?

 

[Justin Passing]

Nato countries have a stock of some thing like 10000 advanced battle tanks ???

So far the Ukraine has received pledges for barely half of the 300 promised ???

USA obviously doesn't want to suppy tanks in time

I don't know where th 10,000 is counted.

Turkey has to be careful, Poland Romania +1 I forgot has been sending some . LIke they have.

Germany has scaled back the number of tanks it can manage - 14 tanks introduced 1979 , I just read.
Hardly any going now, Putin must be smiling.

Oryx imply Ukraine may actually be doing OK for tanks because they have captured 500 or so Russian ones, and Russia has lost maybe a third to a half of front-line tanks (1500 - 2000). Year's supply left?
I hope Ukr has lots of western long range missiles.

 

[JohnD]

So far the Ukraine has received pledges for barely half of the 300 promised ???

What do you think is the difference between a "pledge" and a "promise?"