Ukraine counter offensive

[JohnD]

"Russia halts traffic over Crimea bridge after reports of explosions​

Christopher Miller in Kyiv

Russian occupation authorities have halted traffic over the bridge connecting Russia and Crimea after reports of explosions and a partial collapse early on Monday."

FT.com

 

[IT Minion]

Apparently this time it was naval UAVs. But the road bridge is less important than the rail bridge so whilst it hinders Russia it isn't as much of an impact as the road bomb was.

On the other hand if they managed this once then they could manage again

 

[transam]

Apparently according to many reports the counter offensive is not going that well ?????

Russia has built some pretty formidable defensive lines ??

Reports also suggest that the Russians will no longer agree to grain shipments ?

Russians suggesting that the UK and US are involved or responsible for blowing up this bridge ???

 

[JohnD]

On the other hand if they managed this once then they could manage again

Twice, so far.

 

[Odds]

"Russia halts traffic over Crimea bridge after reports of explosions​

Christopher Miller in Kyiv

Russian occupation authorities have halted traffic over the bridge connecting Russia and Crimea after reports of explosions and a partial collapse early on Monday."

FT.com

The family travelling in their car across the bridge picked a very, very bad time to go on holiday to Crimea.

 

[IT Minion]

Apparently according to many reports the counter offensive is not going that well ?????

Russia has built some pretty formidable defensive lines ??

Reports also suggest that the Russians will no longer agree to grain shipments ?

Russians suggesting that the UK and US are involved or responsible for blowing up this bridge ???

Russia has laid multiple layers of minefields backed up by dug in infantry and artillery. Those are very difficult to get past.

To get past them you need to remove/destroy the mines, clear the infantry from the trenches and do all of that without enemy artillery, tanks or anti tank missiles killing a single vehicle in your cleared route and blocking it, forcing you to more or less start again.

And once you've done that on a single line, you have to do it all again 500m later, except without any surprise and with all your troops trying to drive up a single 4 meter wide muddy corridor. All the while the defenders bring up more troops or air strikes.

Ukraine has been making excellent use of Storm Shadow for strikes on command and control, logistics and rear area troop concentrations. They've also been using the longer ranged NATO artillery, HIMARS and counter battery radar to kill more Russian artillery.
They're trying to wear down Russia so they don't have supplies and shells to stop a breach or the reserves to plug one.

 

[IT Minion]

Twice, so far.

Once with a truck bomb driven by a patsie which relied on poor scanning at the Russian end of the bridge and people willing to take anonymous parcels onto the bridge without opening them.

Once with remote controlled bombs that evaded Russian defenses.

The latter seems more repeatable to me.

 

[JohnD]

Once with a truck bomb driven by a patsie

That's a story that was put about early on. Are you sure it was true?

 

[IT Minion]

That's a story that was put about early on. Are you sure it was true?

Have you heard different?

 

[JohnD]

I remember seeing reports like this

Crimean bridge: Who - or what - caused the explosion?

Russia has blamed a truck bomb - but examination of the footage seems to contradict that.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[IT Minion]

It seems Ukraine is making a strong push in the South near Robotyne at the moment. At least some of their reserves have been committed and there are signs they've managed to break through one of the defensive lines.

 

[Odds]

According to the BBC...

The general in charge of Ukraine's stuttering offensive in the south says Russia has created multi-layered minefields and fortified defensive lines which were making it difficult for military equipment, including tanks and armoured vehicles supplied by the West, to move forward.

He says Russia's military has displayed "professional qualities" by preventing Ukrainian forces from "advancing quickly".

So far there's little evidence that Western supplied tanks and armoured vehicles have been able to tip the balance in Ukraine's favour.

Several Leopard tanks and US Bradley fighting vehicles were damaged or destroyed in the first days of the offensive, near the city of Orikhiv.

Ukraine's 47th Brigade, which had largely been trained and equipped by the West to try to break through Russian lines, were soon stopped in their tracks by mines and then targeted by artillery.

[email protected]

 

[Odds]

Looking at a recent situation map it appears they're trying to 'pinch off' the strip of territory to the east of Mariupol in an attempt to isolate Crimea and push Russian forces back towards Luhansk and their own border.

 

[IT Minion]

Yep, if they can cut the land supply routes then the forces to the west of the break will be forced to withdraw back through Crimea. That will mean a lot of lost vehicles through breakdown alone and far more if they collapse.

 

[Odds]

Yep, if they can cut the land supply routes then the forces to the west of the break will be forced to withdraw back through Crimea. That will mean a lot of lost vehicles through breakdown alone and far more if they collapse.

It all sounds like a simple plan until they hit those minefields: four lanes deep, paired up for maximum affect on armour. It's taking a savage toll on vehicles and troops. Morale remains low among Russian troops but with no way back and little chance of moving forward all they can do is stand and fight. France has spent a record $27B on military equipment this year, mostly on Ukraine, i think, and while the EU remain steadfast it'll help but too little is being sent and too slowly for an effective quick march and commits them into a slow death while Russia hangs on, waiting for the US elections next year hoping their man in Washington can bluff his way back into the White House.