Ukraine counter offensive

[fillyboy]

Russia has a demographic problem, with a large proportion of its population being around retirement age, especially the skilled men in the armaments factories.

Many of the bright young people with foreign languages and marketable skills have already left the country.

Putin's conscription, and the large number of men who have fled to avoid it, has greatly diminished the number of people of working age.

This does not help productivity.

Maybe they should join the EU.

 

[JohnD]

Maybe they should join the EU.

Russia is noted for a dislike of foreigners, as well as racism and xenophobia. More likely to join one of Farage's groups.

 

[transam]

The Russian military in its current state is almost certainly unable to operate on a nuclear battlefield

The chaotic group of exhausted contract troops hastily mobalised reservists conscripts and mercenaries that currently comprise the Russian ground forces could not function in a nuclear environment

 

[JohnD]

Low Russian birth rates 18 to 25 years ago result in a shortage of young men for Putin's war to consume.

Of those that were born, many have left

Much more on https://www.ft.com/content/a72aa22a-6583-4600-ac45-0c685f8c986a

 

[JohnD]

Additionally,


https://www.ft.com/content/8c576a9c-ba65-4fb1-967a-fc4fa5457c62

"More than 1mn more people died in Russia between March 2020 and January 2022 than would have been expected based on trends in the same period between 2015 and 2019, according to analysis of government data by the Financial Times. This figure dwarfs Russia’s official Covid death toll of 360,000 and is among the highest levels of excess mortality of any country in the world."



Edit
I'd expect that to affect the older groups more.

 

[motorbiking]

The contribution of arms to Ukraine, or anywhere else is not released by France. They made an exception with the Caesars.
So any media article claiming to know how much France has contributed is, by definition, the reporter's estimate.

Are you suggesting their contribution is inline with their status as a top 5 arms producing nation?
Do you think France is right to suggest Ukraine accept the loss of its territory to end the war?

Do you think if Ukraine accepts the loss of more territory Putin wont come back for more?

 

[motorbiking]

Additionally,


https://www.ft.com/content/8c576a9c-ba65-4fb1-967a-fc4fa5457c62

"More than 1mn more people died in Russia between March 2020 and January 2022 than would have been expected based on trends in the same period between 2015 and 2019, according to analysis of government data by the Financial Times. This figure dwarfs Russia’s official Covid death toll of 360,000 and is among the highest levels of excess mortality of any country in the world."



Edit
I'd expect that to affect the older groups more.

That sounds about right. With widespread lockdown and vaccine rollouts it would be similar to the US/pp. But we didn't hear much about that from Russia during the pandemic.

 

[Pat ex]

Are you suggesting their contribution is inline with their status as a top 5 arms producing nation?

I'm in no position to estimate what France's contribution is. They don't release such details.

Do you think France is right to suggest Ukraine accept the loss of its territory to end the war?
Do you think if Ukraine accepts the loss of more territory Putin wont come back for more?

The current topic is Ukraine's counter offensive.
How are your questions relevant?

 

[IT Minion]

Some people hate France.

In other news Ukraine has managed to start making rapid progress in Kherson in the South of Ukraine. The Russians had put a lot of their better units there to protect the Crimean land bridge and as a jumping off point towards Odessa.

Ukraine had managed to seriously restrict the routes over a major river there and the ability of Russia to reinforce or extract men and equipment from there is limited.

 

[motorbiking]

I don't hate France, I lived and worked there, it's a beautiful country. I think Macron should stop trying to play both sides and help a country that has been invaded. I think he is doing as little as possible.

I do wonder if the pace Ukraine is achieving is some how a trap to get them to over reach.

 

[Pat ex]

I don't hate France, I lived and worked there, it's a beautiful country. I think Macron should stop trying to play both sides and help a country that has been invaded. I think he is doing as little as possible.

Why not read France's official position instead of guessing.

France’s position on the situation in Ukraine

War in Ukraine: France's diplomatic action

On 24 February 2022, 8 years after the illegal annexation of Crimea and the beginning of the conflict in eastern Ukraine in 2014, the Russian Federation made the deliberate, unjustifiable choice to start a war against Ukraine. From the very first day of the conflict, France and its European...

www.diplomatie.gouv.fr

 

[ajohn]

I'm in no position to estimate what France's contribution is. They don't release such details

True and no one is. I read it as small quantities of high end modern weapons. Other comments on them are pure speculation as well.

Soldiers. If a Ukrainian one is lucky they get a week or so in the UK aimed at making them behave like soldiers abd aome weapon use training. Numbers are not that high.

Russia ??????????? Time will tell.

War In Ukraine has gone very pro Ukraine of late but much of what he is saying are predictions based on success so far, He went the same way with rocket strikes earlier in the SW but so far the situation there hasn't changed much.

Lyman. I wonder if capturing that is of strategic benefit to Ukraine. Being right on the fighting line maybe not so much for Russia. Ukraine seems to have a very high troop density in this rough area but not that much is going on elsewhere.

More on the annexation. Gets completed soon. Voted through and Putin needs to sign it, Once that is done Russia has to protect these areas. A constitutional factor. Labrov said they will be voting again on other areas in the future. Some of what Russia sees as boarders are known. Some aren't.

Interesting comment on reporting. Zelensky has really tightened up on people reporting from the fighting, both civilians and soldiers so lots of info is being gained from Russian mil bloggers. Russia has announced a withdrawal from Lyman or has it? A report says the place is litered with both Ukrainian and Russian soldier's bodies,

Putin made some comments about what the west had done to certain cities in the past. Part of his talk about annexation.

 

[IT Minion]

I don't hate France, I lived and worked there, it's a beautiful country. I think Macron should stop trying to play both sides and help a country that has been invaded. I think he is doing as little as possible.

I do wonder if the pace Ukraine is achieving is some how a trap to get them to over reach.

It's expensive bait. A lot of top tier kit is being lost that could have been recovered and repaired.

Fast advances can be turned around, especially if you over extend. But I don't think it's a serious risk in the South due to logistics limitations for Russia.

If you look at it the other way, Russia over extended and was committed over too large a front without enough bodies to advance, then Ukraine counterattacked.

 

[IT Minion]

Soldiers. If a Ukrainian one is lucky they get a week or so in the UK aimed at making them behave like soldiers abd aome weapon use training. Numbers are not that high.

It was 3 weeks minimum, now extended to 5 weeks for infantry. Longer courses for skilled roles.

There's also in country training happening. We are a useful part but we're a small useful part.

Also, Lyman was lost days ago.

 

[motorbiking]

Why not read France's official position instead of guessing.

War in Ukraine: France's diplomatic action

On 24 February 2022, 8 years after the illegal annexation of Crimea and the beginning of the conflict in eastern Ukraine in 2014, the Russian Federation made the deliberate, unjustifiable choice to start a war against Ukraine. From the very first day of the conflict, France and its European...

www.diplomatie.gouv.fr

Ukraine anger as Macron says 'Don't humiliate Russia'

The French leader wants to give Vladimir Putin an "exit ramp", but Ukraine rejects that stance.

www.bbc.co.uk

France becoming 'irrelevant' in Ukraine because it sends too few arms, says defence expert

Warning that Macron is not pulling his weight in the conflict compared to countries like the US and UK

www.telegraph.co.uk

France's Macron says up to Ukraine to decide on potential territorial concessions

Ukraine alone should decide whether or not to accept any territorial concessions towards Russia in view of ending the war, French President Emmanuel Macron told TF1 television in an interview as he visited Kyiv.

www.reuters.com

seems its nothing more than a political manifesto.