Ukraine, Light At the End Of The Tunnel, THE END GAME

[ajohn]

There are two theories as to why the Russians haven't achieved their goal so far.
One is that the Ukranian military are putting up stiffer resistance than Russia expected.
The other is that the Russians are holding back to avoid civilian causalities as they regard the Ukrainians as fellow Slavs.
Depending on your prejudice, you can take your pick of either theory.

Option 2 has definitely being going on but there is also the comments about USA shock and awe. Initially spectacular which it was but people carried on as normal and what ever they did next still left more to do and and a rather low optimistic 200,000 civilians killed.

The odd aspects really are airports, barracks and weapon stores. For some reason they didn't want to take them out immediately especially the last 2.

McDon ----> Raspitin's. I posted that as thought it's probably feasible. Also a lot of western kit they didn't pay for but the output from it needs to be sold. It's hard to see how the west could get it back without some sort of deal.

One military pundit with no particular axe to grind reckons Russia is having a pause. Look around etc, re arrange and carry on. He sees it as normal. China asked for weapons. Intelligence source. What one? Run out of more expensive stuff - cruise shot down damaging several apartment blocks, rather badly in some cases. Think that was yesterday.

Chemical - maybe a theory as it could solve some problems.

 

[transam]

There are two theories as to why the Russians haven't achieved their goal so far.
One is that the Ukranian military are putting up stiffer resistance than Russia expected.
The other is that the Russians are holding back to avoid civilian causalities as they regard the Ukrainians as fellow Slavs.
Depending on your prejudice, you can take your pick of either theory.

a third theory to be added is that the Russian planning and logistics is p*** poor

and the planning and logistics part of there army is incompetent

so they have had to resort to the siege and bombard tactic

Putin gives not a jot about Slav casualties

as said before he does not have the man power there to occupy a hostile country

neither does he appear to have control of the air space

 

[transam]

Blimey during thise Israel / Arab wars

who supplied weapons /kit to the Arab states

yes exactly Russia

who supplied billions of dollars worth of air defence systems to saddam To defend Baghdad

yes exactly the Russians it appears

There kit has a history of being sh*te

 

[transam]

Dare say them polish migs can’t be supplied to the Ukraine’s because they dont work

probably s***e falling apart that’s why the poles want rid of em

 

[Justin Passing]

I’m concerned about Putin’s endgame. I don’t see any off-ramp that lets him save face. How can he even let his own troops come home? They’d tell everyone what they saw, which would make Putin look like an idiot.
He’s f*ed up badly, and the retirement options for embarrassed dictators are not good.
Best case for sure is that some silovniki stage a palace coup, take Putin out, and blame everything on him. Would bet there are back-channel encouragements in progress toward that end. There is certainly great wealth and power on offer.
But could that work? No idea how well insulated Putin is from other strongmen. He’d certainly have a Praetorian Guard. He’s a silovnik himself, and used them to bring himself to power.
Who would bet against a cornered, sociopathic narcissist using chemical weapons or nukes?

If he doesn't stop weapons coming in, he's going to lose a lot more military assets and soldiers.
If he craters the roads he'll stop refugees leaving and humanitarian aid coming in.

Biiden's billion includes: "600 switchblade kamikaze drones, 800 Stinger missiles, which can be used to shoot down Russian helicopters and other aircraft, as well as 1,000 light anti-armor weapons, 2,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles, and 6,000 AT-4 single-shot anti-tank missiles.

Both Javelins and Stingers are “fire and forget” weapons, so the operators can change positions while the missiles are still in flight. Javelin missiles can strike tanks and other vehicles from above, where the armor is the weakest. The AT-4, a Swedish-made 84mm rocket launcher, can be used to destroy fortified positions, tanks, and other vehicles."

This looks like an escalation to me.

 

[fillyboy]

I’m concerned about Putin’s endgame. I don’t see any off-ramp that lets him save face. How can he even let his own troops come home? They’d tell everyone what they saw, which would make Putin look like an idiot.
He’s f*ed up badly, and the retirement options for embarrassed dictators are not good.
Best case for sure is that some silovniki stage a palace coup, take Putin out, and blame everything on him. Would bet there are back-channel encouragements in progress toward that end. There is certainly great wealth and power on offer.
But could that work? No idea how well insulated Putin is from other strongmen. He’d certainly have a Praetorian Guard. He’s a silovnik himself, and used them to bring himself to power.
Who would bet against a cornered, sociopathic narcissist using chemical weapons or nukes?

If he doesn't stop weapons coming in, he's going to lose a lot more military assets and soldiers.
If he craters the roads he'll stop refugees leaving and humanitarian aid coming in.

Biiden's billion includes: "600 switchblade kamikaze drones, 800 Stinger missiles, which can be used to shoot down Russian helicopters and other aircraft, as well as 1,000 light anti-armor weapons, 2,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles, and 6,000 AT-4 single-shot anti-tank missiles.

Both Javelins and Stingers are “fire and forget” weapons, so the operators can change positions while the missiles are still in flight. Javelin missiles can strike tanks and other vehicles from above, where the armor is the weakest. The AT-4, a Swedish-made 84mm rocket launcher, can be used to destroy fortified positions, tanks, and other vehicles."

This looks like an escalation to me.

I fear you're right JP.

 

[transam]

The thing is there must be some type of nuke launching protocol in Russia

Putin cannot be wandering around with the launch codes alone ??

others must have to be involved ?

give permission ??? Dunno how it all works tbh ?

 

[JohnD]

The EU is bankrupt mate.

Vinty is filled with hate and likes to post things that match his warped world view.

 

[fillyboy]

Vinty is filled with hate and likes to post things that match his warped world view.

‘four legs good, two legs bad

 

[fillyboy]

‘four legs good, two legs bad

 

[JohnD]

Why does Vinty like Putin?

Well here's a thing.

"The Russia Report" published by the Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament in July 2020 did not specifically address the Brexit campaign, but it concluded that Russian interference in UK politics is commonplace.[4][5] It also found substantial evidence that there had been interference in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum.[6][5]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rus...AUUd959U9JG8-TVgeYcl4cjcdZtTqjHN4I9QDMDLHuKEQ

Can lying Johnson hide his embarrassment forever?

"I have hugely mixed feelings this morning. It is tremendous news that the UK govt is going to crack down on SLAPP lawsuits. I also feel angry & sad & helpless that I was put through this ordeal. Am still going through this ordeal."

https://mobile.twitter.com/caroleca...l1_StLClR2YLS3mC2pycGYRPCQhpzAz-jFaxyyuiCgfz0

 

[Justin Passing]

The thing is there must be some type of nuke launching protocol in Russia

Putin cannot be wandering around with the launch codes alone ??

others must have to be involved ?

give permission ??? Dunno how it all works tbh ?

It looks defensive:
"The 2020 doctrine presents four scenarios which might justify the use of Russian nuclear weapons:
-- the use of nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction against Russia or its allies;
-- data showing the launch of ballistic missiles aimed at Russia or its allies;
-- an attack on critical government or military sites that would undermine the country's nuclear forces response actions;
-- the use of conventional weapons against Russia "when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy".
Putin oversaw a coordinated test of Russia's nuclear forces on Feb. 19 shortly before ordering troops into Ukraine. "

The Button signal goes from Putin's little briefcase to the General Staff headed by Valery Gerasimov. He has form. Though his "doctrine" was in line with the overemphasized defensive posture which "doth protest too much", you'll find in Russian (and previously, soviet) rhetoric, the American press thought it was bellicose.
He was the guy at the top during the ambush of Ukranian army (hundreds died) Battle of Ilovaisk during a negotiated retreat where Russians weren't supposed to be fighting anyway, and there was an inconvenient oops involvement with Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.

refs - Wikipedia etc, nothing tendentious.

 

[noseall]

Putins bitch is the EU.

Nonsense. More like nemesis. Putin thought he could cosy up with Merkel but the EU prevented that. Meanwhile Boris has been busy bending over for Russian oligarchs and cheap Russian energy. Now look what’s happened. Boris mutters…”I didn’t expect him to become a Lord, honest”..as he skulks away to Saudi with his jar of lube.

Putin believed The UK would be on his side. Some actually are.

 

[fillyboy]

Nonsense. More like nemesis. Putin thought he could cosy up with Merkel but the EU prevented that.

Fool, we import something like 5% of our gas from Russia, check out how much the EU import.

Now look what’s happened. Boris mutters…”I didn’t expect him to become a Lord, honest”..as he skulks away to Saudi with his jar of lube.

Fair play to him for trying to solve the western world's energy crisis, Saudi and UAE won't even take Biden's phone calls.

 

[Notch7]

.

The EU is bankrupt mate.
It is a fur coat and no knickers economy.
Only America and Japan are more indebted.
Even though the EU is drowning in debt, they are going to have bond (IOU) sale to raise a trillion euros.
The so called poor Russians have a trade surplus and a debt to GDP ratio of only 17%.
Check out the debt to GDP level of America or the EU.

EU Euro area debt to gdp = 97.7%

UK debt to gdp = 103.7%

Hey Vinty, the UK is bankrupt mate - far more so that the EU

The UK is drowning in debt
The USA is drowning in debt


But Vinty hates the EU, so he claimed only that’s drowning in debt