Weapons shortage

[Justin Passing]

So which category are you in ??

The other one. I don't put much faith in the rest.
(there was a "Top Expert" somewhere that the bridge explosion was very likely a bad bit of convoy loading by the Russians. But there's video showing the explosion on a nearly empty road...)

I lean towards believing what Putin wants us all to believe - that he's the only one prepared to escalate, come what may.
He's the only one possibly passionate/mad enough. I think that's his trump card.
The west doesn't have any blood in it. It gets some toys out and spends money, but no boots.

Who actually believes that puta will move on from invading Ukraine to another country? Poland? Does anyone in the West factor that in, right now? I don't see much about that.

Putin may be using stuff up fast, and crumbling around the edges, but he still has a lot of options. He probably has "a few hundred" cruise-type missiles left, of similar type to the 85 he used today, but then he can move to other things.
Many are saying the support from the west will be hitting limits soon, - and I don't see it being allowed to hit Russia - it's hobbled.


I read some stuff about how wars end. One way is capitulation. One way is agreement but that's based on based on trust - that the other side won't pause then start again. Neither of those, then. The other possibles were no more likely or appealing.
I'm thinking that something has to happen to shift things, by about christmas.

 

[transam]

The other one. I don't put much faith in the rest.
(there was a "Top Expert" somewhere that the bridge explosion was very likely a bad bit of convoy loading by the Russians. But there's video showing the explosion on a nearly empty road...)

I lean towards believing what Putin wants us all to believe - that he's the only one prepared to escalate, come what may.
He's the only one possibly passionate/mad enough. I think that's his trump card.
The west doesn't have any blood in it. It gets some toys out and spends money, but no boots.

Who actually believes that puta will move on from invading Ukraine to another country? Poland? Does anyone in the West factor that in, right now? I don't see much about that.

Putin may be using stuff up fast, and crumbling around the edges, but he still has a lot of options. He probably has "a few hundred" cruise-type missiles left, of similar type to the 85 he used today, but then he can move to other things.
Many are saying the support from the west will be hitting limits soon, - and I don't see it being allowed to hit Russia - it's hobbled.


I read some stuff about how wars end. One way is capitulation. One way is agreement but that's based on based on trust - that the other side won't pause then start again. Neither of those, then. The other possibles were no more likely or appealing.
I'm thinking that something has to happen to shift things, by about christmas.

The un predictable mad man theory
Than ( Putin)

Richard Nixon sort of liked the north Vietnamese to believe the mad man unpredictable caper

Like all dictaters there biggest fear is losing power regime change

Because when they do it rarely ends well for them

Dictaters don’t just retire

 

[JohnD]

Who actually believes that puta will move on from invading Ukraine to another country? Poland? Does anyone in the West factor that in, right now? I don't see much about that.

Much less likely now than if his invasion of Ukraine had been a walkover.

Previous invasions of Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Crimea etc were much easier and he and his buddies thought Ukraine would just roll over.

 

[IT Minion]

Moldova and transnitria are an pretext waiting for a land supply route.

 

[Justin Passing]

I don't think poor little Moldova would change things much.
I'd be most concerned about Hungary’s authoritarian leader and longtime Russian ally, Viktor Orban
They are in Nato though so ...... gawd knows...

Reminder:

(Then Austria's not in Nato )

 

[ajohn]

The BBC had some how much do Russia have left pundits on. All assumptions and cruise missiles are only part of their kit.

It seems the latest hits have made a rather complete mess of Ukraine's electricity grid via taking out substations.

 

[Notch7]

I think that covers most of it?

youve certainly covered half

 

[JohnD]

I don't think poor little Moldova would change things much.
I'd be most concerned about Hungary’s authoritarian leader and longtime Russian ally, Viktor Orban
They are in Nato though so ...... gawd knows...

Reminder:

View attachment 282286
(Then Austria's not in Nato )

If Russia is defeated, I think Orban might reconsider his friendship.

 

[denso13]

It seems the latest hits have made a rather complete mess of Ukraine's electricity grid via taking out substations.

Propaganda...

 

[JohnD]

I'm sure Ukraine has a great many substations.

An interesting fact is that bombing the civil population does not win wars, it stiffens their resolve.

Heard of the London Blitz?

Hanoi was bombed far more. But not defeated.

Bomber Harris's beliefs were found out to be wrong.

 

[Justin Passing]

I fear infrastructures are all very fragile. A drone a day keeps a hundred freight trains away.

 

[Justin Passing]

Bomber Harris's beliefs were found out to be wrong.

If Ukraine bombed some Russian population centres, that would shorten the war!

 

[JohnD]

I fear infrastructures are all very fragile. A drone a day keeps a hundred freight trains away.

If you are right, then Russian resupply routes into Ukraine must be at a standstill.

 

[transam]

I'm sure Ukraine has a great many substations.

An interesting fact is that bombing the civil population does not win wars, it stiffens their resolve.

Heard of the London Blitz?

Hanoi was bombed far more. But not defeated.

Bomber Harris's beliefs were found out to be wrong.

Hmm depends who you are bombing

What country ect ect

 

[JohnD]

Britain, Germany, France, Netherlands, Vietnam, Cambodia, Finland, Afghanistan

Name some more.