Big Numbers today

[motorbiking]

Not wishing to sound like those claiming its due to 5g, but there needs to be a balance between virus control and a plan for normality. 170,000 people a year die from heart attack 40,000 stroke deaths, 165,000 cancer. If we have a 25% increase as a result of lockdown that is over 90k additional deaths. Thats without counting the 5-8bn a day cost of lockdown.

 

[IT Minion]

Not wishing to sound like those claiming its due to 5g, but there needs to be a balance between virus control and a plan for normality. 170,000 people a year die from heart attack 40,000 stroke deaths, 165,000 cancer. If we have a 25% increase as a result of lockdown that is over 90k additional deaths. Thats without counting the 5-8bn a day cost of lockdown.

Best estimates are well over 25% excess mortality, more like 40% or more.

But it's worth saying that Lockdown isn't causing the excess deaths. If we ended lockdown then there'll still be Covid-19 infection risk everywhere so we won't go back to normal medical service. People will still avoid going to A&E because of avoiding additional burden on the NHS or fear of infection. We'll still have outbreaks in care homes.

 

[ajohn]

I don't think there will be anything like a 25% increase in areas like that. Some maybe from delayed treatment but if I had a stroke or heart problems suddenly I'd be off to hospital or my wife would call for an ambulance. Cancer generally needs a referral - that and other things relates to GP's. A GP will make a decision.

People who argue this way also forget the alternative - 500k plus deaths or maybe even more. There are around 15m people over 65 in the uk. Mortality rates seem to be higher here than in some places and a goodly proportion of younger people find they need to go to hospital - many of those would die pushing the numbers up even higher. Think 45 years old plus.

Also bear in mind that the majority are avoiding catching it. Going on my walks more and more day by day. Of late people even avoid passing near to each other.

Anyway found the Cobra slides
https://www.gov.uk/government/colle...any-coronavirus-press-conferences#transcripts

 

[motorbiking]

A quick scan back to the start of this thread and its amazing what we've learned in just over a month.

 

[JohnD]

50k excess deaths? That might be true. Heart attacks alone would account for 15-20k

might?

Have you got better information?

This was as at April 21 2020

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab

"The coronavirus pandemic has already caused as many as 41,000 deaths in the UK, according to a Financial Times analysis of the latest data from the Office for National Statistics.

The estimate is more than double the official figure of 17,337 released by ministers on Tuesday, which is updated daily and only counts those who have died in hospitals after testing positive for the virus.

The FT extrapolation, based on figures from the ONS that were also published on Tuesday, includes deaths that occurred outside hospitals updated to reflect recent mortality trends."

and

"The ONS data showed that deaths registered in the week ending April 10 were 75 per cent above normal in England and Wales, the highest level for more than 20 years.

There were 18,516 deaths registered during that period compared with the most recent five-year average of 10,520 for the same week of the year. There were similar patterns in Scotland and Northern Ireland"

 

[motorbiking]

Yes I’ve seen that data. These aren’t unreported Covid deaths. These are deaths above the seasonal norm. Many will be caused by the impact rather than the Virus.

I am curious to know what happened 20 years ago to give us a pandemic level of fatality.

 

[JohnD]

These aren’t unreported Covid deaths.

How many of them aren't?

 

[Brigadier]

I am curious to know what happened 20 years ago to give us a pandemic level of fatality.

As one of our I. T. dept used to say when one of our computers went down,
"Millennium Bug".

 

[motorbiking]

How many of them aren't?

How many of them are?

Stupid game this - you don't have the data, so why argue from a position you can't support? Do you think there is a govt conspiracy to hide Covid deaths?

Or perhaps you think people from deprived backgrounds get worse treatment in the NHS for Covid, as if they somehow check your wallet for a gold card when you get admitted.

You seem to think that if A = X and B = Y, that X is because of Y

 

[JohnD]

I wonder what the probabilities are

"Fatal epidemic strikes country. Forty thousand people more than usual die in a month. Half of them have been tested for a disease and found to have it. Half of them have not been tested for the disease."

Assumption: The thousands of extra deaths of people who were not tested did not have the disease.

And that's your claim?

 

[ajohn]

Many will be caused by the impact rather than the Virus.

You don't know that. The TV has had some way better graphs of the same thing. It needs comparing with previous years ranges of the norm. Then comes cause of death, age range and all sorts. As they say themselves it will take a lot of sorting out. Some figures are available for all ages. Normal rate for cancer deaths this time of year is ~2300 / week. Cardio vascular disease ~1600 / week. Around 18,000 people a year die of pneumonia in hospital, that will tend to be rather seasonable. Then some people just die. Total all causes ~10,000 / week from a recent years average 2015 to 2019.

 

[motorbiking]

were not killed by the disease - correct.

Did they die because:
- they did not seek medical treatment quickly enough due to the pandemic?
- they could not get access to medical treatment because of the pandemic?
- nobody was around to help them because of lockdown.
- their treatment was changed because because of the pandemic?
- There is a regression to mean spike (ajohn's point)

For example: do you think its possible that someone might have an extra 1-1 1/2 hour delay in treatment of a heart attack? that will push heart attack deaths up by 5,000 a month.

 

[ajohn]

Do you think there is a govt conspiracy to hide Covid deaths?

I don't but there is some doubt about death certificates generated by GP's - the people that usually do it. They can find themselves having to guess from medical history and autopsies aren't always done. There have been reports that in care homes GP's have been stating various bronchial diseases that probably really are CV19. This from the statistics people who know what numbers and reasons they usually see.

 

[motorbiking]

I've also heard the reverse. Doctors putting suspected Covid-19 based on symptoms.

I'm open to the idea that there are missed positives (there are bound to be), but I reject the idea that all the additional deaths are undiagnosed Covid cases.

 

[Notch7]

Do you think there is a govt conspiracy to hide Covid deaths?

of course there is -its a govt built on lies