Big Numbers today

[ajohn]

Interesting brief today. Some one has noticed that R value varies across the country. New science man and he said something interesting to try and explain. What he said effectively is that a level line is an R value of 1. If numbers are halving then it's 0.5. If doubling it's 2. He also mentioned that R must be viewed in this context.

What has effectively happened is R <1 all over the country now, sub 0.7 to 0.9. Care homes then started being mentioned by reporters as the cause and sort of yes from the politician. I suspect this is why the science man asked if he could be a bit technical for a while and explained it. He also mentioned that social distancing is extremely important for the next few weeks. That is all that is keeping things down but in some areas R value is still much closer to 1.

Gets worse. We have been looking at R values of hospital entries. Now we have positive tests out of hospital - 2 different R values but more and more out of hospital tests detect more and more people with it so other than for surveying isn't of much use. They are finding between 2 to 4k infected people per days since testing went up.

Politician also mentioned that the time to worry about people coming into the country is when numbers are well down. In some countries they have proved a problem even at very low domestic levels. Very few bought it here and testing may not have caught them.

 

[ajohn]

As excess deaths have been mentioned but they mention that delays in records will change things so relates to what they have gone through

The end of flu deaths can be seen and normal variations.

 

[ReganAndCarter]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...criticism-for-covid-19-response-boris-johnson

Aside that it's been written by the guardian, it's true. Other countries are gobsmacked. Why on earth did we not do lockdown faster and more strict?

Still many flights coming in every day without testing or quarrantining. Have been since the beginning. Makes you wonder about the point of social distancing, etc if no control of those entering UK.

 

[noseall]

no control of those entering UK.

Looking at UK stats, aren't they at a greater risk from Covid 19 once they arrive here?

 

[ReganAndCarter]

Looking at UK stats, aren't they at a greater risk from Covid 19 once they arrive here?

Maybe now, but earlier in the game would have been a different story. Who knows? May change again in future.

 

[sodthisforfun]

Still many flights coming in every day without testing or quarrantining. Have been since the beginning. Makes you wonder about the point of social distancing, etc if no control of those entering UK.

Quite agree but the UK gov have made quite a mess of this all along. The only thing they've done well-ish imo is try to help some financially...

 

[Munroast]

Quite agree but the UK gov have made quite a mess of this all along. The only thing they've done well-ish imo is try to help some financially...

Prime minister, health minister, chief medical officer amongst others at the top table have all had the virus - if they can't even protect themselves how the heck are they going to protect us ? We're ruled by effete arseholes! It's a shyte state of affairs to be in! And all the Stay Home Stay Safe slogans in the world won't make any fecking difference.

 

[ajohn]

Remove social distancing now and all hell would break loose. There are way too many people about that still have it. The increased testing is finding between 2 and 4k a day. Those are not hospital entries which are dropping due to social distancing. The 2 to 4k may start dropping eventually but at the moment it's just the number they manage to catch which is why the numbers vary.

Relate the 2 to 4k to probably 1/2 dozen people or so who bought it here in the first place and then look at what happened as a result without any distancing.

 

[Brigadier]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52587293

If / when the Premier League starts up, will anyone be brave / daft enough to mark KW closely?

As for feeling harassed, the paps are welcome to follow me around as much as they like. All I ask is a steady £110k a week, guaranteed for five years

 

[ajohn]

South Korea still has active cases but deaths per day are always low.

 

[motorbiking]

I've started looking at the data in a different way.

23.1% avg reduction WoW this week. That may go down a bit next week as we have an extra day of under reporting.

 

[ajohn]

I'm not so sure. The new cases chart now show the usual hospital entry testing and also pillar 2 testing - those not done by NHS. Some will finish up in hospital. Or it looks like they may do. On the other hand some of the numbers reported may be incorrect or not up to date. They expect the nhs testing to reach zero eventually just leaving pillar 2 testing.

I wonder about the R value rule. Some conditions have been established that limit infections. If they were 100% effective hospitals would be empty 35 days after they were introduced - Those that have it when introduced 14 days to get ill and max stay of 21 days. We've had roughly 29 of them. Many look like they wont end next week.


I wonder if it will finish up looking like Wales - low numbers with negligible R value. I'd hope they were a lot lower though. Unintended contact with asymptomatic people. They can pass it on very easily, talk to them while too close, pick something up in a supermarket they have contaminated and etc. It clearly doesn't need anyone to cough or sneeze etc. I still think this is why China says masks indoors except at home / actually in their apartment.

That sort of bouncy line for Wales is the sort of thing I would expect from something that is semi random.

 

[motorbiking]

 

[durhamplumber]

you can say nothing.

Lie by omission you mean..

 

[durhamplumber]

We need absolute instruction.

Sadly.too early for that.not enough scientific data on covid19