So would I. But I'm pretty sure I won't be!
Can Kamala Harris win?
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So would I. But I'm pretty sure I won't be!
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She is most likely to pick a VP from the marginal swing states. She may have the Hillary problem - women not liking to vote for a women as President.
Current Wall St problem. Tech stock falling and the latest job reports coming out. More jobs created under Biden as usual but a slight increase in unemployment. So this lot are concerned that the FED may take too long to respond and there will be a depression as a result. Seems the FED say they might cut rates in September. Hard to see if this will cause Harris a problem but Trump will just say he will fix it. There are rumbles in a number of other stock markets world wide. Intel intending to cut 15,000 jobs world wide due to current poor performance levels.
Current Wall St problem. Tech stock falling and the latest job reports coming out. More jobs created under Biden as usual but a slight increase in unemployment. So this lot are concerned that the FED may take too long to respond and there will be a depression as a result. Seems the FED say they might cut rates in September. Hard to see if this will cause Harris a problem but Trump will just say he will fix it. There are rumbles in a number of other stock markets world wide. Intel intending to cut 15,000 jobs world wide due to current poor performance levels.
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Trump will claim from any change, even if it's a move in an encouraging direction.
There was a risk of a big market crash which hasn't happened and that looks less likely now, but it's going to be difficult to avoid a sort of stagflation. There are more market dips coming , perhaps 5-10% for the middle sized companies' share prices.
The immediate effect of a rate cut will hurt some and benefit others, it depends on the balance and how big.
A sharp dollar rate change affects economies worldwide.
Intel has been a basket case, it backed an old horse and just hasn't kept up with its competition.
Intel have now bought the latest and greatest machine but their record is of being slow. Years to develop the fab plant.
The top few US companies are ridiculously overpriced. People keep saying they'll drop a lot - some have dropped 10-20% but the traders keep pushing them back up again.
There's a house of cards in the chip business:
The fastest chips are made in Taiwan(TSMC), with machines only produced in Holland(ASML) , and primarily bought by Nvidia(USA).
The machines and factories (fabs) cost - allow $100,000,000,000. That's 3% the GDP of the UK.
Though they have started making their own chips, Apple, Meta (twitter/X) and Alp[habet(google) rely on supplies from Nvidia.
AMD(USA) makes pretty good chips. (Nvidia customers buying from AMD have to pay Nvidia more for theirs, which is potentially illegal.)
Why ASML? The chips are made usng layers of different materials printed (if you like "cut") using light. The lower the wavelength of light, the finer it gets and you have more transistors on a chip. If you go from 10nm to 7nm you get twice as many per area.. They're currently working with very short wave UV. Only ASML can do that, despite a few claims from the far east.
There are snags at Nvidia which may lead to delays in deliveries to Apple, Google, Meta - calamity.
China is a big market.. Nvidia is dancing around Biden's export limits - Trump may just say "none". Calamity.
Korea, or Japan or China could surprise everyone with new production (so far Nikon and Canon have failed) - disaster.
Chips, what for? Cloud computing - everyone put their data in the cloud - and Artificial Intelligence.
AI? So what?
AI is not new.
It wasn't well known until ChatGPT came along. Then the chip prices really took off, because finally people could see an application, even if it was mostly about fiddling kids' homework.
So where are the big profits from AI applications? Errm, well there aren't too many, yet. They can't even make a non-lethal RoboTaxi.
So what's the hype all about
Just you wait.
OK, how long?
Just you wait. Hurry up and wait.
We now, just about, have small quantum computers, say 1000 qubits
Famously, a problem which would take 47 years on a current supercomputer, took a few seconds on a quantum computer.
1bn qubits?
Hurry up and wait and see.
There was a risk of a big market crash which hasn't happened and that looks less likely now, but it's going to be difficult to avoid a sort of stagflation. There are more market dips coming , perhaps 5-10% for the middle sized companies' share prices.
The immediate effect of a rate cut will hurt some and benefit others, it depends on the balance and how big.
A sharp dollar rate change affects economies worldwide.
Intel has been a basket case, it backed an old horse and just hasn't kept up with its competition.
Intel have now bought the latest and greatest machine but their record is of being slow. Years to develop the fab plant.
The top few US companies are ridiculously overpriced. People keep saying they'll drop a lot - some have dropped 10-20% but the traders keep pushing them back up again.
There's a house of cards in the chip business:
The fastest chips are made in Taiwan(TSMC), with machines only produced in Holland(ASML) , and primarily bought by Nvidia(USA).
The machines and factories (fabs) cost - allow $100,000,000,000. That's 3% the GDP of the UK.
Though they have started making their own chips, Apple, Meta (twitter/X) and Alp[habet(google) rely on supplies from Nvidia.
AMD(USA) makes pretty good chips. (Nvidia customers buying from AMD have to pay Nvidia more for theirs, which is potentially illegal.)
Why ASML? The chips are made usng layers of different materials printed (if you like "cut") using light. The lower the wavelength of light, the finer it gets and you have more transistors on a chip. If you go from 10nm to 7nm you get twice as many per area.. They're currently working with very short wave UV. Only ASML can do that, despite a few claims from the far east.
There are snags at Nvidia which may lead to delays in deliveries to Apple, Google, Meta - calamity.
China is a big market.. Nvidia is dancing around Biden's export limits - Trump may just say "none". Calamity.
Korea, or Japan or China could surprise everyone with new production (so far Nikon and Canon have failed) - disaster.
Chips, what for? Cloud computing - everyone put their data in the cloud - and Artificial Intelligence.
AI? So what?
AI is not new.
It wasn't well known until ChatGPT came along. Then the chip prices really took off, because finally people could see an application, even if it was mostly about fiddling kids' homework.
So where are the big profits from AI applications? Errm, well there aren't too many, yet. They can't even make a non-lethal RoboTaxi.
So what's the hype all about
Just you wait.
OK, how long?
Just you wait. Hurry up and wait.
We now, just about, have small quantum computers, say 1000 qubits
Famously, a problem which would take 47 years on a current supercomputer, took a few seconds on a quantum computer.
1bn qubits?
Hurry up and wait and see.
The Guardian reports Andy Beshear, the governor of Kentucky, canceled a planned appearance in the western part of his state on Friday with no official explanation, intensifying speculation over whether Kamala Harris might choose him as her running mate. Beshear’s schedule change is far from a guarantee that Harris will select him considering that Pennsylvania’s governor, Josh Shapiro, another name on the shortlist of potential running-mates, also canceled a fundraising trip planned for this weekend.
Considering Harris will be in Pennsylvania on Tuesday to make the announcement it could well happen Shapiro will get the nod.
Considering Harris will be in Pennsylvania on Tuesday to make the announcement it could well happen Shapiro will get the nod.
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I think the VP also needs the college vote. That would suggest no official statement until she is nominated. People wondering keeps it in the news.
The Vice President is elected along with the President by the Electoral College. Each elector casts one vote for President and another for Vice President.
The Vice President is elected along with the President by the Electoral College. Each elector casts one vote for President and another for Vice President.
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Yes that all looks right / likely. I haven't bothered to look into those governors. Not that interested!
"Democratic party’s ‘Trump is weird’ strategy rattles Republicans
Kamala Harris’s campaign shifts attack lines in effort to win the White House"Kamala Harris has attacked Donald Trump as a threat to individual freedom, economic security and the rule of law in the US since launching her White House campaign nearly two weeks ago.
But the vice-president and her Democratic allies have found a novel way of describing Trump and the Republican party that is unnerving their opponents: describing them as “weird”.“
Some of what he and his running mate are saying, it’s just plain weird,” Harris said during a fundraiser last weekend, as the audience laughed. “I mean, that’s the box you put that in, right?”
Democrats have been trying to portray Trump and his followers as part of an extreme rightwing fringe of American politics for years, including after the January 6 2021 attack on the US Capitol, with mixed success.But the hardline views on abortion and disparaging comments on women by Trump’s running mate, Ohio senator JD Vance, have highlighted a fresh line of attack from the Democrats. Quips such as Vance’s in a 2021 speech that America was run by “childless cat ladies” have gone viral online, turbocharging the new strategy"
FT
She's not wrong.
"These are weird people on the other side, they want to take books away, they want to be in your exam room, that’s what it comes down to,” Tim Walz, the Democratic governor of Minnesota and contender to be Harris’s running mate, told MSNBC two days after she entered the race.
An independent Harris supporters group called “Won’t Pac Down” last month launched an ad called “these guys are just weird” that has since gone viral featuring a series of creepy male “Maga Republicans” saying they want the “government way more involved in your sex life”
“These opinions that mainstream Republicans in a lot of cases are holding, are honestly just bizarre,” said Travis Helwig, a television producer who created the ad, which is aimed at younger voters.He added the attack appears to be resonating because while Trump and his allies “enjoy being called threats to democracy”, “‘weird’ is clearly getting under their skin” more."
An independent Harris supporters group called “Won’t Pac Down” last month launched an ad called “these guys are just weird” that has since gone viral featuring a series of creepy male “Maga Republicans” saying they want the “government way more involved in your sex life”
“These opinions that mainstream Republicans in a lot of cases are holding, are honestly just bizarre,” said Travis Helwig, a television producer who created the ad, which is aimed at younger voters.He added the attack appears to be resonating because while Trump and his allies “enjoy being called threats to democracy”, “‘weird’ is clearly getting under their skin” more."
"Democrats have maintained their line. “If Republican leaders don’t enjoy being called weird, creepy, and controlling, they could try not being weird, creepy, and controlling,” Hillary Clinton, the former secretary of state and first lady, also wrote on X."
The main third party candidate RFK Jr. is currently polling at about 6%. He has just given an interview where he admits he was behind the mysterious dumping of a dead bear cub in NY Central Park ten years ago. He claims that he saw somebody else run it over with their car, so he picked it up with the intention of skinning it and eating it (as you do!). But he left it in his van too long and had to dump it somewhere. So, he thought it would be funny to dump it in Central Park.
www.cbsnews.com
RFK Jr. admits putting dead bear cub and old bicycle in New York City's Central Park nearly 10 years ago
"I said let's go put the bear in Central Park and we'll make it look like it got hit by a bike," Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said in a video he posted on X.
www.cbsnews.com
The nutty US-RWR are attempting to erase thief extraordinary racist past. Teaching kids that white Amarica is and was extremely racist, could lead to those people being locked up.
The same nutty RWR will jail a woman that aborts a dead foetus.
The UK RWR worship Trump and similar lying law breaking scumbags.
Weird does not do them justice.
Story breaking now on BBC (still tbc) that Kamala has chosen Tim Walz as her running mate.
en.wikipedia.org
Tim Walz - Wikipedia
Josh Shapiro close second apparently.Thanks, I'd forgotten all about this happening today! That's who I was hoping for
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