Can Kamala Harris win?

[Odds]

Kamala klaims they're the underdogs but FiveThirtyEight, a leading polling analysis site, puts Harris, the Democratic party’s presumptive nominee for president, up by 2.1 points over her Republican rival in its national average. In averages for swing states, where control of the White House rests, Harris led in Michigan by two points, Pennsylvania by 1.1 point and Wisconsin by 1.8 points. Trump led in Arizona by less than half a point and in Georgia by half a point.

brat roolz.

 

[ajohn]

A number of the people who study polls infer that +3 is really likely to mean something. That due to seeing 2 or less rather hard to call. The general idea
Often pollsters, journalists and political scientists calculate this as twice the reported margin of error of the poll. This is done following the logic that if one candidate is at 55% and the other at 45% and the poll has a± 5% margin of error, then the first candidate could be as low as 55−5=50% and the second could be as high as 45+5=50%.In this case reporters would say the race was a statistical dead heat because the gap between the candidates (55−45=10%) is not more than two times the margin of error of the poll (5%). While this is the correct conclusion when there are only two possiblesurvey responses, it is not correct when there are more than two possible responses,which is in fact virtually always the case. How much difference this makes depends onhow many responses are outside the two categories of interest.

LOL eeek this includes the maths

https://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/MOEFranklin.pdf

 

[JonathanM]

Another new poll showing Kamala Harris well ahead now in three key swing states.

 

[JonathanM]

I still have difficulty believing she can win, though. First, because it is America and she is a black woman. Second, until recently she was thought a terrible candidate. Third, immigration is the biggest issue at the moment and, even though she was never actually in charge of the border, the Republicans have managed to convince everybody that she was. And finally, the attempted assassination.

 

[JonathanM]

Interestingly, when Harris introduced Walz last night she didn't mention his military service like she had before, but she did refer to him as "Coach Walz", and people behind the podium held "Coach Walz" placards. This was always the part they had decided to emphasise most. Apparently, "football" plays a massive role in the American psyche and being a football coach is great way to demonstrate your credentials. Presumably, the Republicans will now be scrambling desperately to find something inappropriate he did, either as a teacher or coach.

 

[Mrs Ten Names]

I still have difficulty believing she can win, though. First, because it is America and she is a black woman.

Because she is black, or because she is a woman?
Obama was black.
Michelle Obama would have been a dead cert for the next POTUS, if she had been running.

I still have difficulty believing she can win, though. ... Second, until recently she was thought a terrible candidate. Third, immigration is the biggest issue at the moment and, even though she was never actually in charge of the border, the Republicans have managed to convince everybody that she was.

The VP's is supposed to stay in the shadows so as not to surpass the President.
So she wasn't that obvious or standout in the VP role.
Biden did place responsibility for identifying the causes of immigration with her, to inform the best strategy for tackling immigration.

On February 2, 2021, President Biden signed an Executive Order that called for the development of a Root Causes Strategy.

Since March, Vice President Kamala Harris has been leading the Administration’s diplomatic efforts to address the root causes of migration from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. She has worked with bilateral, multilateral, and private sector partners, as well as civil society leaders, to help people from the region find hope at home. This complements work done throughout the U.S. government over the last six months to learn lessons from prior efforts and to consult with a wide range of stakeholders to inform the development of this strategy.

FACT SHEET: Strategy to Address the Root Causes of Migration in Central America | The White House

On February 2, 2021, President Biden signed an Executive Order that called for the development of a Root Causes Strategy.Since March, Vice President

www.whitehouse.gov

 

[ajohn]

even though she was never actually in charge of the border,

That area was part of her brief but in terms of why they come, pass if anything else. Lots were deported but refugees are now more likely to arrive at official crossing poins. Trump was saying he would deport 2m. Biden's time appears to have improved on that. Recently Trump didn't mention a number.

One thing for sure her ratings are improving.

 

[Notch7]

Trump keeps waving to invisible crowds

Weird huh!

 

[JohnD]

USA has an electoral college system, which means that the Presidential candidate who gets the most votes does not necessarily become president.

Small states with small populations have disproportionate power.

 

[Mrs Ten Names]

...but refugees are now more likely to arrive at official crossing poins. T...

Because she set up an app that allowed refugees to make appointments.
And it works.

 

[JonathanM]

The Republicans have come up with a new nickname for Walz. They're calling him "Tampon Tim". Because as governor he passed a law requiring schools to provide free sanitary products. The Republicans just get weirder! Who could possibly be against free sanitary products?

 

[noseall]

Weird

Trés weird.

 

[JonathanM]

Trés weird.

Wrong accent?

 

[Mrs Ten Names]

Trés weird.

Wrong accent?

It's très bizarre, as in very weird, not as in I've been learning French for two years. It's deux ans.

 

[noseall]

Wrong accent?

Mais non!