Electric theft by EV owners causing charge points to be switched off.

[carmanmemoranda]

Are we due a surge in vehicles soon? What's the driver?

The restriction on sales of ice cars in the near future

 

[feynman]

Look at the amount of vehicles on any road. Where I live, I often walk along the pavement past long queues of stationery or slow moving cars. Or past cars stuck in queues to leave the supermarket. People use their cars to drive a mile, or less than a mile, or if it is raining, and this is just not sustainable - ICE transport generates about 30% of greenhouse gases globally. New houses should only be allowed to be built within a mile of a railway line, and new stations added. Trains and busses need to be sorted out and decent, reliable cost effective services provided.

In 20 years time when most private vehicles will probably be electric, we will no doubt all wonder why it took us so long to convert.

 

[Avocet]

Look at the amount of vehicles on any road. Where I live, I often walk along the pavement past long queues of stationery or slow moving cars. Or past cars stuck in queues to leave the supermarket. People use their cars to drive a mile, or less than a mile, or if it is raining, and this is just not sustainable - ICE transport generates about 30% of greenhouse gases globally. New houses should only be allowed to be built within a mile of a railway line, and new stations added. Trains and busses need to be sorted out and decent, reliable cost effective services provided.

In 20 years time when most private vehicles will probably be electric, we will no doubt all wonder why it took us so long to convert.

All laudable aims, but right now, the country has an acute housing crisis - for a whole load of reasons. We desperately need more housing, and it' hard enough to find suitable sites as it is. Stipulating yet another restriction (and I guess you mean "within a mile of a railway station" rather than "within a mile of a railway line"?) just makes that problem harder. I don't even think that would have been possible before the Beeching cuts to the rail network? Adding more stations, means adding more stops - which erodes the speed benefit of having a rail network, compared to a bus service.

EVs that only get driven a mile, won't need charging often (or fast). Yes, we need more charging points, but they're coming. I don't think we will end up needing as many as some people fear, to be honest. Especially when we get the whole "super car performance" thing out of our system and start making more frugal, affordable, "normal" EVs.

 

[JBR]

EVs that only get driven a mile, won't need charging often (or fast). Yes, we need more charging points, but they're coming. I don't think we will end up needing as many as some people fear, to be honest. Especially when we get the whole "super car performance" thing out of our system and start making more frugal, affordable, "normal" EVs.

And where are we going to get the additional electricity we're going to need for all these EVs?
Windmills? Solar power?

 

[Avocet]

And where are we going to get the additional electricity we're going to need for all these EVs?
Windmills? Solar power?

Yes, partly. Also from new nuclear (if the Tories are to be believed). However, the first "quick win", is to even-out the demand for power, by using more of it at night, so we can keep the power stations operating more efficiently.

 

[StephenStephen]

Yes, partly. Also from new nuclear (if the Tories are to be believed). However, the first "quick win", is to even-out the demand for power, by using more of it at night, so we can keep the power stations operating more efficiently.

...and I don't think it'll be too long before CCS V2G comes along to enable EV's to bring our current peak electricity usage down...

 

[carmanmemoranda]

For practical purposes, nearly every parking space, car parks too, will need a charger.

That's a lot of points, and power !

 

[StephenStephen]

For practical purposes, nearly every parking space, car parks too, will need a charger.

That's a lot of points, and power !

...not something to worry about - the possible range of EV's will only increase over time, and even with a small old 100 mile range EV and current limited charger network, people don't bother to charge every time they park somewhere with a charger.

 

[Avocet]

For practical purposes, nearly every parking space, car parks too, will need a charger.

That's a lot of points, and power !

Why? Every parking space in a car park, doesn't currently have its own petrol pump!

 

[carmanmemoranda]

Why? Every parking space in a car park, doesn't currently have its own petrol pump!

If stopping at motorway services, it's generally for a break after 2 or 3 hours driving , say around 150 miles. Generally there will still be a distance to do, so an EV is going to need a top up charge. Say around 100 cars stop at peak time (often more). 6, 8 or even 10 charge points just won't cut it.

Probably a lot of people won't have had access to a charger overnight and a trip to supermarket or other shops will be a good reason, or need, to charge. Again a few chargers won't be enough.

It's ok currently, still a minority of vehicles are EV, but it won't be long before it's the other way round. People won't queue for half a day to charge, they will want to charge as they go shopping or have a break on a longer trip. Or the trip becomes stressdul.

I just don't see how there are enough chargers for the obvious sudden increase that's coming.

That's the main reason (and cost versus resale) why I won't go to an EV until I see the practicality in action.
I think it's ok now, but once you struggle to find a charge when needed, the feeling will change.

And yes, I may well be wrong, but I'm not yet convinced I am

 

[Avocet]

If stopping at motorway services, it's generally for a break after 2 or 3 hours driving , say around 150 miles. Generally there will still be a distance to do, so an EV is going to need a top up charge. Say around 100 cars stop at peak time (often more). 6, 8 or even 10 charge points just won't cut it.

Probably a lot of people won't have had access to a charger overnight and a trip to supermarket or other shops will be a good reason, or need, to charge. Again a few chargers won't be enough.

It's ok currently, still a minority of vehicles are EV, but it won't be long before it's the other way round. People won't queue for half a day to charge, they will want to charge as they go shopping or have a break on a longer trip. Or the trip becomes stressdul.

I just don't see how there are enough chargers for the obvious sudden increase that's coming.

That's the main reason (and cost versus resale) why I won't go to an EV until I see the practicality in action.
I think it's ok now, but once you struggle to find a charge when needed, the feeling will change.

And yes, I may well be wrong, but I'm not yet convinced I am

All I can say, is that I haven't had a problem yet. I think I am likely to be cold in my grave (or at the very least, no longer driving) by the time the majority of the 30-odd million cars on the UK's roads are electric. Right now, a miniscule 2-3% of the country's cars are electric. Best industry estimates are that it will be nearer 30% by 2030 (by which time I'll be 65), and about 60% by 2050 (when I'll be highly unlikely to be driving).

So the first point, is that I don't think uptake will be as rapid as you think.

The second point, is that we're assuming battery technology, range and charge rate are all going to stay as they are. (Which is unlikely).
So of all the cars in a given service station at any one time, I think it will be many years before 100 of them are electric. And of course, of those 100 cars, not all of them will need charging. I must admit, that when you said "every car park" I took it literally, rather than just motorway service station car parks, though. Clearly, "route" chargers (as opposed to "destination chargers") will have to be fast and more numerous. I regard a 50 kW charger as "slow", by the way, but the RAC seem to think of anything more than 25kW as a "rapid" charger and anything more than 25kW and up to 50kW. That's simply not good enough. We need to have most of them offering at least double that.

And, of course, new ones are being installed all the time. 839 of them in January, according to ZapMap. At present, we have about 45 public chargers per 100,000 of population in the UK. This is going to have to rise significantly, and there are legitimate concerns that it's not rising at the same rate as the number of EVs. That said, it's largely a private sector project, and they will only do something that there's a business case for. With ICE vehicles, the same thing happened. The driver for the growth in the number of petrol stations was the number of cars. I'd expect the same thing to happen with EV charging points.

 

[carmanmemoranda]

All I can say, is that I haven't had a problem yet. I think I am likely to be cold in my grave (or at the very least, no longer driving) by the time the majority of the 30-odd million cars on the UK's roads are electric. Right now, a miniscule 2-3% of the country's cars are electric. Best industry estimates are that it will be nearer 30% by 2030 (by which time I'll be 65), and about 60% by 2050 (when I'll be highly unlikely to be driving).

So the first point, is that I don't think uptake will be as rapid as you think.

The second point, is that we're assuming battery technology, range and charge rate are all going to stay as they are. (Which is unlikely).
So of all the cars in a given service station at any one time, I think it will be many years before 100 of them are electric. And of course, of those 100 cars, not all of them will need charging. I must admit, that when you said "every car park" I took it literally, rather than just motorway service station car parks, though. Clearly, "route" chargers (as opposed to "destination chargers") will have to be fast and more numerous. I regard a 50 kW charger as "slow", by the way, but the RAC seem to think of anything more than 25kW as a "rapid" charger and anything more than 25kW and up to 50kW. That's simply not good enough. We need to have most of them offering at least double that.

And, of course, new ones are being installed all the time. 839 of them in January, according to ZapMap. At present, we have about 45 public chargers per 100,000 of population in the UK. This is going to have to rise significantly, and there are legitimate concerns that it's not rising at the same rate as the number of EVs. That said, it's largely a private sector project, and they will only do something that there's a business case for. With ICE vehicles, the same thing happened. The driver for the growth in the number of petrol stations was the number of cars. I'd expect the same thing to happen with EV charging points.

I am not trying to argue against you, you give a generally balanced view, but from your own view point as it is, currently.

But I just see it differently.

And I did mean all car parks. If you are travelling on a motorway and need a charge and avoid motorway services, where will you go, a car parking area of some sort. You won't be the only 1 looking for a charger. 4 or 6 or 8 or 10 chargers just wont be enough for anything more than 10 or possibly 15 if a few are prepared to queue.

And I think take up of EV's will have a sudden growth spurt as more and more "rep" types and business travellers move across. Their cars tend to be 3 or 5 years old at max before replacement. Add delivery and service type vans and the like and it multiplies.

Don't forget, petrol and diesel queues of cars form, but dissipate within minutes (5 to 10 minutes maximum). Not the same for electric, most of those will go for a coffee or snack as they charge

 

[Avocet]

I am not trying to argue against you, you give a generally balanced view, but from your own view point as it is, currently.

But I just see it differently.

And I did mean all car parks. If you are travelling on a motorway and need a charge and avoid motorway services, where will you go, a car parking area of some sort. You won't be the only 1 looking for a charger. 4 or 6 or 8 or 10 chargers just wont be enough for anything more than 10 or possibly 15 if a few are prepared to queue.

And I think take up of EV's will have a sudden growth spurt as more and more "rep" types and business travellers move across. Their cars tend to be 3 or 5 years old at max before replacement. Add delivery and service type vans and the like and it multiplies.

Don't forget, petrol and diesel queues of form, but dissipate within minutes (5 to 10 minutes maximum). Not the same for electric, most of those will go for a coffee or snack as they charge

If anything, the new tax changes that will come in for 2025 will, I imagine, set things back a bit? If electricity prices stay high, but the Ukraine war ends and oil prices drop, I can see that setting EVs back too. The best fast chargers are around 80p per kWh now. That's over 20p a mile for me - which is a bit more than my diesel was costing me even when diesel prices were at their highest. (OK I can offset that with (at present) 5p a mile for any mileage that I do when charging at home). And that's another point with EVs. Most of them are home-charged for most of their mileage. Something that's just not possible with ICE. The only ones using motorway chargers, will be the ones which, at any one time, will be on a longer run than their range from a home charge will permit.

I'm sure most EVs are company cars right now - because the benefit-in-kind tax is so low. The rest of us need that to be the case (and hie car fleets) so that "clean" EVs start penetrating the second hand market. But as they do enter the second hand market, they will also start doing less ploughing up and down the motorway. I really can't see every supermarket parking space, every public car park, every NCP parking space, every station car park, etc, ever needing one charger per space. I really can't. Yes, we're going to need a lot more, but (a) not in those places and (b) not as many as that. Motorway service areas are the ones that really need to grow their charging capacity.

 

[carmanmemoranda]

If anything, the new tax changes that will come in for 2025 will, I imagine, set things back a bit? If electricity prices stay high, but the Ukraine war ends and oil prices drop, I can see that setting EVs back too. The best fast chargers are around 80p per kWh now. That's over 20p a mile for me - which is a bit more than my diesel was costing me even when diesel prices were at their highest. (OK I can offset that with (at present) 5p a mile for any mileage that I do when charging at home). And that's another point with EVs. Most of them are home-charged for most of their mileage. Something that's just not possible with ICE. The only ones using motorway chargers, will be the ones which, at any one time, will be on a longer run than their range from a home charge will permit.

I'm sure most EVs are company cars right now - because the benefit-in-kind tax is so low. The rest of us need that to be the case (and hie car fleets) so that "clean" EVs start penetrating the second hand market. But as they do enter the second hand market, they will also start doing less ploughing up and down the motorway. I really can't see every supermarket parking space, every public car park, every NCP parking space, every station car park, etc, ever needing one charger per space. I really can't. Yes, we're going to need a lot more, but (a) not in those places and (b) not as many as that. Motorway service areas are the ones that really need to grow their charging capacity.

We just see it differently, and no doubt the actual will be somewhere in between us.

 

[JBR]

Yes, partly. Also from new nuclear (if the Tories are to be believed). However, the first "quick win", is to even-out the demand for power, by using more of it at night, so we can keep the power stations operating more efficiently.

I'm afraid that attempting to use more power at night may not be enough, and the speed at which the government is 'thinking about' implementing new nuclear power stations(!), are not going to provide very much more electricity to supply the projected expansion of numbers of EVs, certainly not by 2030.
Then there is the need to provide a much extended electrical supply network by that date.
Anyway, I have no means of proving my suspicions, but I'm willing to bet that the government's supposed ban on sales of new ICE cars in 2030 will not happen! We shall see.