FTSE 100

B

Brigade77

I was told a few years ago by a bloke whose opinion on such things can be really trusted & respected . . . That I should stop trying to understand politics & concentrate on economics.

Today the FTSE 100 reached a record high.

How exactly does this fit in with 99.99% of the populations opinion of our current economic climate?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39289651
 
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They are strangely interlinked, and yet both have no common sense about them.

Politicians are people that have a ferevent desire to either show others how marvelous and magnanimous they are (Blair, and Camoron), or how they know what's best for you (most Labour politicians), but very few actually know what they are doing, and although they are in effect running the country, none have any true business experience.

Financial markets unfortunately, are often swayed by what the politicians do, (or should I say screw up) as in Osbourne et all telling everyone that the conomy would crash if we voted for Brexit, so the markets panicked, and created a self fulfilling prophecy, but it didn't last, because international economics took over. The pound dropped, goods became cheaper abroad, so output increased, and the FTSE 100 climbed, but it actualy climbed because the pound dropped against the dollar, and so profits brought into this country from abroad increased; internal economics actually had very little to do with the FTSE rising, and if the pound rises against the dollar, then the FTSE will drop.

The UK is liked because we have flexible labour laws (even though we aren't as productive as French workers) so we get more investment than other countries do. Germany exports more than we do, so earns more than us, so money flows into them, and if they weren't in the Euro, then the DeustcheMark would rise too high which would cut exports, so Germany does well being in the Euro, but few other countried do.

In theory, we are heading for a collapse of sorts, because government debt is increasing, services like the NHS don't have enough money, and because Phillip Hammond isn't a business man, he robs peter to pay paul, and effectively fiddles whilest rome burns.

You can learn to understand economics, but the FTSE100 isn't run by other economists, but ordinary people that are controlled by their emotions, and fears, and that completely ruins most economic models, but there is a herd instinct, and you can see that the FTSE rises at certain times of the year, and drops at others (tax year ends, and holidays) so sometimes you need to look at paterns rather than try and understand the understandable.

Warren Buffet is about to collect on a 1 million dollar bet that the stock market would beat all the manamged funds, and that shows that most economists will explain what's happened, but not be able to predict the future, because when ordinary people are involced, predictability goes out the door.

Essentially, economics is a gamble.
 
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In crap times, where else do you get a return on your money?
People weigh into the stock market, which becomes self-fulfilling.
 
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But they also panic easily, and that also becomes self fulfilling. I think one of the Rothchilds bankers said, I never made as much profit as I could, nor suffered as much loss as I might, so the trick is knowing when to get in, and even more importantly, when to get out.
 
Always good long terms favorites - hang on, are you talking shares, or items to stock up for the impending downfall of society.
 
I was told a few years ago by a bloke whose opinion on such things can be really trusted & respected . . . That I should stop trying to understand politics & concentrate on economics.

Today the FTSE 100 reached a record high.

How exactly does this fit in with 99.99% of the populations opinion of our current economic climate?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39289651

1) Stock markets are not, are not required to be, and must not be assumed to be, logical or sensible.

2) if you look at an international company, for example an oil or pharmaceutical company, who products are priced in dollars, then their apparent revenue, and share price, when translated into pounds, will seem to be worth more pounds when the pound falls in value against the dollar. So without anything else changing, if the pound drops by, say, 20% since the day of the Brexit vote in June 2016, you would expect the price of Shell, when measured in pounds to increase by 20% even if its price, measured in dollars, was unchanged. There are lots of other things going on that will confuse the issue, but let's check that

Pound against the dollar
chart


Dollar against the pound
chart



Price of Royal Dutch Shell "B" shares, in pounds
chart




hmmm, there does seem to be a correlation

That's one of the things that can cause prices to move around.

Let's check that against a company who sales are inside the UK, to UK consumers, priced in pounds. You wouldn't expect it to have the Dollar rise. It would follow the prospects for the UK economy.

Debenhams
chart


No, it doesn't. It has the same slump as the pound does. Can you see when it started?
 
The FTSE100 are largely international companies with income from multiple currencies reporting in GBP. Low £ = more income
Its the ISA / tax investment season people are topping up before the tax year end pushing funds to buy, pushing prices up.
second property tax is making buy to let unattractive and actually investing in property can be a real pain anyway given the returns.
The impact of brexit wont actually bite for another few years and very much depends on how the EU organise themselves to benefit from any UK losses. My guess is they will fight among themselves.
 
I'm always fascinated how little is said about the FTSE breaking the 7000 barrier to now show 7400+. But when it returns to below 7000, the media will shout from the rafters that 'the value of blue chip industries is slashed by £billions, thus threatening everyone's pensions....end of the world.....et al.
 
But when it returns to below 7000, the media will shout from the rafters that 'the value of blue chip industries is slashed by £billions, thus threatening everyone's pensions....end of the world.....et al.
Especially if it is a prolonged downward trend. I'm sure brexit hasn't finished delivering us more gloomy headlines.
 
Economics is a truly fascinating subject.

All the standard indicators of a healthy economy are there for all to see, yet we are led to believe that it's all doom & gloom & nobody has enuff $money for the important things in life.
 
I'm always fascinated how little is said about the FTSE breaking the 7000 barrier to now show 7400+. But when it returns to below 7000, the media will shout from the rafters that 'the value of blue chip industries is slashed by £billions, thus threatening everyone's pensions....end of the world.....et al.
Upward movements are perceived much differently to downward movements. It is a manifestation of greed.
 
I was told a few years ago by a bloke whose opinion on such things can be really trusted & respected . . . That I should stop trying to understand politics & concentrate on economics.

Today the FTSE 100 reached a record high.

How exactly does this fit in with 99.99% of the populations opinion of our current economic climate?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39289651
I have read so much lately about ISA'S and the low interest rates.
I have had an ISA for 8 years and have averaged approx 6.5% in that time.











How you may ask, easy it's a stocks and shares ISA. I could have made more if I left my dividends in but I preferred to draw them out each month.
Yes I know the market can fall and indeed it did in the early years, but eventually it crawled back up and now my initial investment is worth more in addition to my monthly dividends .
Despite the share value companies still in the main make profits, whereas the value of the cash ISA is currently eroded by inflation.
Even now if the stock market had a major collapse I would still be miles ahead of a cash ISA.
My main concern now is when we leave the EU,
 
All the standard indicators of a healthy economy are there for all to see, yet we are led to believe that it's all doom & gloom & nobody has enuff $money for the important things in life

That's beacuse we're looking at the wrong indicators. The FTSE100 is rising, but as others have said, it's because of the foreign income now being worth more, so they should be showing increased dividends, and are therefore more attractive to the hedge funds. But the NHS is going down the pan, the JAMs are now a standard term, and Hammond has had to break an election pledge to try and help the care for the elderly, so we have conflicting signals, and the average joe public instinctively knows somethings wrong, but can't work out what's wrong.

Government borrowing is now up to £1.7tr, and they can't even balance the budget, let alone pay off any of the overdraft. The economy is expanding simply because we have cheap supply of mortgage money, and even though credit cards charge a phenominaly disgusting usery rate that the government should regulate, increased credit limits are readily available, as is the 2 year 0% interest deals that are on offer. Effectively, the economy is expanding on a sales spree that's been caused by Browns banking deregulation, and I hate to think how it's going to get reigned in. Brexit will bite properly in a few years, but I don't think it'll cause as much trouble as some doom sayers suggest. We are British, and we flex when the wind blows, we don't break, but this wind will will be a wind of change.

The downside of Brexit, will be that as the economy expands, we'll be an even more tempting target for the economic migrants, and that'll mean we need more houses, more schools, more hospitals, which will then mean that we need more imigrants to build the houses, and staff the hospitals - which then means we need more housing, and so on, and on, and on.

The trendy teaching methods that were supposed to bring out a childs inner abilities, left a complete generation unable to cope in the real word, so we have even more youngsters on the dole, and we're rapidly droping down the education leauges so need better educated immigrants, and companies now chase profits at the expense of the workers, put their staff on zero contracts, get out paying employers NI contributions, so don't contribute to the public coffers. The banks continually rip us off with with one money extracting scheme or another, and then have to pay loads of money to the laywers and other ambulance chasing parasites that Blair encouraged into the market. So the JAMS lose money, but don't get it back, so the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer.

We have a crap crap ecomomic model, and even more crap chancellors just doing more of the same crap that the previous ones did. A radical aproach is needed, and at some stage, assisted suicide for the elderly will become socially acceptable. Don't say I didn't warn you.
 
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