Immigration Crisis

[Pat ex]

There were recordings of the French coast guard talking to those on the boats who made emergency calls on the radio ;

Yes we know, and the French had made their recordings available to the MAIB.
Nor do they deny that the refugees contacted them.
The UK have refused to allow access to their recordings.

French responsibility
French fault

According to you and Motorbiking's accounts. The investigations have not reached a conclusion yet.

But it is not the fault of the French that there is no safe or legal way for refugees to claim asylum in UK without arriving here by any means possible.

But as per usual those in here desperately want it to be the UK s fault

But as per usual those in here desperately want it to be anyone else's fault except the UK s fault.

 

[Pat ex]

There doesn't seem to be any mention of the engine not running. It will have stopped at some point but very probably not when the 1st calls were made.

We can assume the engine was still running because there was some discussion about turning back, or pushing on. Neither would have been possible without an engine.

 

[motorbiking]

simply because the UK were called. It needs an adult joined up investigation. Or we can just assume we had no responsibility. A n open investigation determines, not assumes.

you have told us previously how the French escort them to UK waters, so they must know who the organisers are. And if they were escorted, why did this happen.

Your facts don't always seem to tie up. But that's not new

There were dozens of boats setting off at the same time. It is claimed that the traffickers even do this deliberately to distract the emergency services while they get their VIP illegal migrants over on decent boats. As evidenced by this example not every boat is intercepted and monitored.

From the MAIB interim report:

The scope of the subsequent MAIB investigation has focused on the UK search
and rescue response at the time; the MAIB is not investigating the reasons why the voyage was being attempted nor the conduct of the voyage itself. The investigation has established that, during the evening of 23 November 2021, about 34 migrants left a beach near Dunkirk, France on board a small inflatable boat to proceed to the UK. During the passage, the migrants got into difficulties and entered the sea. Along with many other migrants that were transiting the Dover Strait that night, some of those on board the boat made phonecalls to alert Maritime Rescue Coordination Centres (MRCC) ashore about their situation. Staff at the Dover MRCC responded to the calls for help and dispatched UK surface and air assets to search the area where the distressed migrants were assessed to be. However, nothing was found until the report from the French fishing vessel later on 24 November 2021.

 

[Pat ex]

There were dozens of boats setting off at the same time. It is claimed that the traffickers even do this deliberately to distract the emergency services while they get their VIP illegal migrants over on decent boats. As evidenced by this example not every boat is intercepted and monitored.

From the MAIB interim report:

You have a habit of misrepresenting vital information.
You claimed the specific boat departed at about 23.00 hrs.
Subsequent reports suggests it departed at 20.00 hrs. In those 3 hours, at about 5 knots it would have travelled about 15 nautical miles. Nearly half way of your assumed 40 nautical mile journey. It continued for another 2½ hours, i.e. another 12½ miles (a total of about 27½ miles of an assumed journey of about 40 nautical miles), i.e. well into British waters.

You also misrepresented the wind at that time, it was a Northerly, not a Southerly as you claimed. As confirmed by the MAIB interim report ( Wind: north-easterly force 3 in darkness; )
You also partly misrepresented the tide, it was a flood tide of about 2 hours past low water. You claimed it was about 1 hour before high tide, which would have then made it an ebb tide.

One can only assume that your presentation of the events have been intentionally twisted to confirm your prejudices.

In addition, the interim report says:

the Chief Inspector of Marine Accidents started an investigation when it became evident that some of the events relating to this loss of life had occurred inside UK waters.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1119949/MigrantVessel-InterimReport.pdf

An extremely vital bit of information which you omitted.

Any information of multiple boats in the sea about the same time confirms the reports about the French having a very busy evening, while the UK boats were quiet.

 

[motorbiking]

@Pat ex Probably worth quoting the whole thing to avoid misunderstanding it:

The MAIB was aware of this incident at the time but did not take any action. This was because the reported events were assessed to fall outside the MAIB’s investigative jurisdiction, given that the location where the survivors and bodies were found was in French waters, and the boat was not UK registered. In January 2022, the Chief Inspector of Marine Accidents started an investigation when it became evident that some of the events relating to this loss of life had occurred inside UK waters. The scope of the subsequent MAIB investigation has focused on the UK search and rescue response at the time;

Clearly he appears to be referring to the search and rescue effort. And by the way as claimed my calculations were always to show their best case scenario - if that failed to place them in British waters, then all other scenarios fail.

Regarding the tide. I have explained that tidal streams use a reference port. (I posted the streams) and showed you how to calculate them, you don't appear to want to learn. The reference port for these streams despite being close to Calais is Dover!. You will go wrong if you use Calais. The tidal streams actually show this info. I've also shown you that the time reference is UTC, not CET. For DOVER HW -1 in a SPRING tide we have a NE stream of 0.8kts avg for the hour.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/world/28112021

OK, not forgetting anything I've previously said about experts calculating the position of the boat, using some of the data you supplied, and relating it to the reported departure time, we have:
They departed about 20.00hrs (British time) 21.00 hrs (French time)
They first got into difficulties at about 01.30 hrs (British time), when they first started transmitting mayday messages.

You estimated their journey to be about 40 nautical miles at about 5 - 6 knots.

We can estimate that they were travelling for about 5 hours at 5 knots, that's about 25 nautical miles.
Distance (nautical miles) = speed (knots) X time (hours).
Well into British waters.
Yes?

For sure there would have been some wind and tide effect, but as you've repeatedly said, that would have been minimal, but clealry sufficient to take them back into French waters, apparently.

Lets explore the claim that they were 5km (2.7NM) in British waters, unable to move and when they were found they were 9Nm off the coast of calais. They do accept when they got in to difficulty they were in French waters but pushed on or 45 minutes to make it to British waters.

There would have been some wind over tide effect on the waves for the flood period of the tide. That can give an illusion that the waves are pushing you back. In fact it is you that are being taken in to the waves by the tide. But if you are 5 miles or more offshore bobbing about, you'd have no perception of that. So I'm not going to call him a liar.

The Ebb and flood basically cancel each other out. Though I note they had 1 more flood than ebb for period (taking them NE) but that only marginally takes them closer to UK waters.
0553 Dover M takes them SE at 0.5kts over the 30-40 min turn its approx 0.15NM SE
06:38 Dover M takes them NW at 0.35kts So Net approx 0.075NM SE
1223 Dover M takes them SE at 0.7kts over the 30-40 min turn its approx 0.15NM SE
Less than 0.1NM further SE as a result of the tide.

Does this lead you to conclude they made it?
If the claims of the survivors and their family were correct, the bodies should have been found near the Sandettie Light vessel, which is visible for 15nm.

 

[Notch7]

Im not following the debate very well in this thread but Motorbiking, your technical input on Nautical matters is fascinating.

 

[motorbiking]

Glad somebody understands it. The argument is a vessel unable to move from around midnight 23rd to 1pm 24th, 2.7NM in to UK waters got taken back 4NM SE to French waters where the bodies were found by the tide/wind/waves.

It's not credible.

 

[ajohn]

TBH I think both sides were at fault. Both sides did send out air searches. Net effect of the way these situations are handles is that reactions were too late.
An interesting aspect is how was the position known? Mobile phones can do that 2 ways. GPS or triangulation from the various network masts. The service providers have that info as well.

 

[JohnD]

In unrelated news, Braverman's office has been dispersing people with Diptheria around the country.

"The Home Office has confirmed that one man who died after being held for days at Manston had received a positive test for the disease amid overcrowding at the centre.

Manston, which was built for a maximum of 1,600 people, was at one point holding more than 4,000 after a surge of migrants crossing the English Channel in small boats. The centre has recently been emptied, with asylum seekers moved on by the Home Office to hotels around the country.

Health officials said they did not recognise a claim in The Sunday Times that there had been more than 70 cases of diphtheria among those who have come from Manston.

However they said there had been 50 confirmed cases in Britain this year — compared with just one last year — with the majority thought to be linked to people who have spent time at the centre. New figures are set to be published on Monday.

Local public health leaders in areas to which migrants have been dispersed are frustrated by what they say is a lack of communication from the Home Office about the health status of those being moved from Manston."

the disease is highly contagious and can be fatal. Luckily much of the UK population has received routine vaccination.

hard luck for antivaxxers and their children.

 

[Pat ex]

@Pat ex Probably worth quoting the whole thing to avoid misunderstanding it:

Clearly he appears to be referring to the search and rescue effort.

I disagree, they were aware of the search and rescue missions immediately after, or even during the incident.
Please read the statement carefully. I have highlighted the vital bits;

The MAIB was aware of this incident at the time but did not take any action. This was
because the reported events were assessed to fall outside the MAIB’s investigative
jurisdiction, given that the location where the survivors and bodies were found was
in French waters, and the boat was not UK registered. In January 2022, the Chief
Inspector of Marine Accidents started an investigation when it became evident that
some of the events relating to this loss of life had occurred inside UK waters.

It clearly and unequivocally states that the MAIB were not interested because the events occurred outside of British waters, it was only when the MAIB became aware that the events occurred inside British waters, that they became involved.

And by the way as claimed my calculations were always to show their best case scenario - if that failed to place them in British waters, then all other scenarios fail.

Yet you claimed they set off at 23.00 hrs (local time?) When they actually set off at 20.00 hrs (British time). In that 3 hour difference they would have travelled about 15 nautical miles, nearly half their journey, just in the time you omitted from your calculations.
Evidently, your calculations was not based on a best case scenario for the refugees, it was a complete fabrication on your part, and ignored 15 nautical miles of travel, about ⅜ of the total journey.

Regarding the tide. I have explained that tidal streams use a reference port. ... You will go wrong if you use Calais.

I didn't use any reference port. Your suggestion that I did is another misdirection.
I was referring to the flood and ebb tides of the Channel, which we have established in a different thread, that the Flood tide is overall a Northerly flow, and the ebb tide the reverse.
But the aberrations in the tidal currents in the Channel make such references irrelevant.
I only used the reference to the flood and ebb tides in the Channel to show that your claim was incorrect. They evidently departed before low water, and continued their voyage during a flood tide. You claimed that they started their journey 1 hour before high tide. That was incorrect.

Lets explore the claim that they were 5km (2.7NM) in British waters, unable to move and when they were found they were 9Nm off the coast of calais. They do accept when they got in to difficulty they were in French waters but pushed on or 45 minutes to make it to British waters.

The report from the link that you provided (Rudaw in English) established that they first reported a problem at 01.30 (British time)

“They started experiencing tube problems around 1:30 British time,” said Taha. “I was in contact with them, talking until 2:40.”

https://www.rudaw.net/english/world/28112021

From about 20.00 hrs to about 01.30hrs is more than 5 hours of travelling, at about 5 knots, most of which you omitted. That means they would have travelled for about 25 nautical miles. (ignoring any wind or tide assistance) That would place them well inside of British waters.
You cannot claim that they first started experiencing difficulties in French waters, when they were, by calculation, in British waters.
But even then they pushed on for a further 45 mins, a further 3.75 miles. Putting them a total of about 28.5 nautical miles from their starting point. Even by your calculations that must pace them well into British waters.
But I'm content to await the full result of the official investigation. Although this British institution will not apportion blame.

Our job is to help prevent further avoidable accidents from occurring, not to establish blame or liability.

About us

The MAIB investigates marine accidents involving UK vessels worldwide and all vessels in UK territorial waters.

www.gov.uk

There would have been some wind over tide effect on the waves for the flood period of the tide.

The wind was a Northerly, which you originally claimed was a Southerly.
But the aberrant tidal currents in the Channel are unpredictable even for armchair experts.

 

[Pat ex]

Im not following the debate very well in this thread but Motorbiking, your technical input on Nautical matters is fascinating.

But not accurate in relation to this incident. His 'calculations' and assunption of vital details reflect his desire of the result rather than a dispassionate view of the situation.

 

[Pat ex]

Glad somebody understands it. The argument is a vessel unable to move from around midnight 23rd to 1pm 24th, 2.7NM in to UK waters got taken back 4NM SE to French waters where the bodies were found by the tide/wind/waves.

It's not credible.

You are intentionally misreporting events yet again. They were clearly under way until at least about 02.15hrs. (about 45 minutes after the first report of a problem at 01.30hrs, already in British waters)
They departed about 20.00 hrs, and first reported problems about 01.30hrs that's five and a half hours of travel at about 5 knots, that's about 27.5 nautical miles, well into British waters.
The found position of the bodies, and any 'wreckage' is irrelevant. The aberrant tidal currents in the Channel could easily account for that.

 

[gant]

Im not following the debate very well in this thread but Motorbiking, your technical input on Nautical matters is fascinating.

You feeling a bit chipper today notchy on the wind up, you knew that would get right up pats nose. And as sure as night follows day it did.

 

[motorbiking]

@ajohn - A lot of the press reports are looking for a story. One of the French rescue call handlers is reported to have said some pretty unpleasant things (after the line went dead) "nobody is coming.., we didn't ask you to go"., but we know people working these facilities often have gallows humour as coping mechanisms. I personally don't blame any of the rescue services. I suspect (I have no evidence) that the migrants may have reported their location in UK waters because they wanted that to be so. This may well have caused the confusion in finding them.

The people to blame are those who trafficked them in an unseaworthy vessel and the illegal immigrants themselves.
1. They got in to difficulty and decided to push on for 45 minutes. Stupid.
2. They set out from Dunkirk nearly doubling their passage.
3. They threw their mobiles away which might have helped them get rescued.
4. The survivors know who they paid, they knew the vessel was old and damaged, they knew they were setting out in a dangerous massively overloaded boat.
5. They broke every possible rule to ensure their safety.

People have to be accountable for their own actions.

But not accurate in relation to this incident. His 'calculations' and assunption of vital details reflect his desire of the result rather than a dispassionate view of the situation.

The problem is you aren't interested in learning how to calculate the impact of tide, which seafarers have been doing accurately for decades.

You are intentionally misreporting events yet again. They were clearly under way until at least about 02.15hrs. (about 45 minutes after the first report of a problem at 01.30hrs, already in British waters)
They departed about 20.00 hrs, and first reported problems about 01.30hrs that's five and a half hours of travel at about 5 knots, that's about 27.5 nautical miles, well into British waters.
The found position of the bodies, and any 'wreckage' is irrelevant. The aberrant tidal currents in the Channel could easily account for that.

I'm now watching with interest as you explain how the "aberrant tidal currents" (which btw are accounted for in the tidal stream references) manage to push them back 7NM in a SE direction. Clueless as usual.

The only thing I haven't accounted for is atmospheric pressure. But then these streams are based on sample data and model and can only ever be accurate to about 10-15%. I have already acknowledged the F7-8 Sotherthy wind was from an incorrect source. Everything else has been calculated using Navionics, which has accurate tidal stream data.

If you want to look at them being under way until 2:15 and in British waters, that is one less SE turn to include so it weakens your argument. The net effect is the Tide is now pushing them in to UK water. How come they weren't found there?

 

[Odds]

You feeling a bit chipper today notchy on the wind up, you knew that would get right up pats nose. And as sure as night follows day it did.

I'm fairly certain he's arguing simply for the sake of an argument at this point.