Immigration Crisis

[motorbiking]

@Pat ex

b) because the Channel is subject to near unpredictable tidal currents, and c) you've already suggested that the tide would not have had a great effect.

That is complete rubbish, its been well surveyed and calculated. The impact of tide while crossing the channel is part of the curriculum for the 1000s of people who study navigation every year. Every SAR vessel will work out the impact of tide since last known sighting when searching for an MOB and every seafarer will know how to get an EP using tide, speed and time since last known position.

Do you understand that the net effect of tide over a period of time depends entirely on the period of time? Imagine a very simple tide:

HW-5) 270° 2
HW-4) 270° 2
HW-3) 270° 2
HW-2) 270° 2
HW-1) 270° 1
HW) 270° slack
HW+1) 90° 1
HW+2) 90° 2
HW+3) 90° 2
HW+4) 90° 2
HW+5) 90° 2

You have a Man over board at HW-3 and its now HW+3 is he pretty much where you lost him?
Now imagine you lost him at HW-2 and its now HW+4. Should you be looking 2NM further East?
If you need a hint the answer is yes.

In the two different scenarios I calculated we had different times of failure spanning 2-3 hours. So the effect of the tide is different

 

[Pat ex]

We have its been disclosed 7-9NM off the coast of calais. Draw an arc as I did and measure the closest distance to UK waters (as I did).

Taking the distance between Calais and Gravelines as about 12 miles. That's just 10 nautical miles. In order to assess the diameter of the arc.
You can see from the diagram below that easily puts the dividing line between France and UK within 10 nautical miles, as highlighted in yellow, just NE of Calais, the same position that the bodies were spotted, and apparently, according to SKY News, where the dingy sank.

Edit, sorry, I meant NW of Calais.

 

[Pat ex]

@Pat ex

That is complete rubbish, its been well surveyed and calculated. The impact of tide while crossing the channel is part of the curriculum for the 1000s of people who study navigation every year. Every SAR vessel will work out the impact of tide since last known sighting when searching for an MOB and every seafarer will know how to get an EP using tide, speed and time since last known position.

Do you understand that the net effect of tide over a period of time depends entirely on the period of time? Imagine a very simple tide:

HW-5) 270° 2
HW-4) 270° 2
HW-3) 270° 2
HW-2) 270° 2
HW-1) 270° 1
HW) 270° slack
HW+1) 90° 1
HW+2) 90° 2
HW+3) 90° 2
HW+4) 90° 2
HW+5) 90° 2

You have a Man over board at HW-3 and its now HW+3 is he pretty much where you lost him?
Now imagine you lost him at HW-2 and its now HW+4. Should you be looking 2NM further East?
If you need a hint the answer is yes.

In the two different scenarios I calculated we had different times of failure spanning 2-3 hours. So the effect of the tide is different

Your continual emphasis on the tides, when you've already claimed that tides and wind would have had little effect suggests your desperation.

 

[motorbiking]

my desperation is your lack of willingness to learn about the things that are important when calculating where something is at sea. Even now you are trying to make it up from scratch. I've shown you how to do it several times and yet you persist in reinventing it.

 

[Pat ex]

my desperation is your lack of willingness to learn about the things that are important when calculating where something is at sea. Even now you are trying to make it up from scratch. I've shown you how to do it several times and yet you persist in reinventing it.

I don't have much of an interest in learning about tides in the English Channel, thanks for your kind offer.
My interest only extended as far as questioning your assertions.
And evidently, it's perfectly feasible for the point, especially the approximate position that the dingy sank (or the bodies were discovered) is only about 10 nautical miles from Calais.
And as the bodies were discovered about 9 nautical miles from Calais, it's perfectly feasible that they drifted, less than a mile, to that point after the dingy sank.
Thus despite your in-depth explanation of how it is not possible for the boat to have sank in British waters, it is, in fact, perfectly feasible for exactly that to have occurred. Granted it could have been marginal. But it's totally unjust for you to create such a one-sided argument based on a probable marginal judgement.

But for confirmation, I'm quite content to await the results of the official investigation, not some amateur arguments on a social media.

Let's also remember that the French have released their communication details without delay. The UK have yet to match that willingness.

 

[Odds]

I've recently had posts deleted for responding to such ad hominem comments.
So it's pointless me responding to your obviously ad hominem comments with anything resembling an ad hominem reply.

The comment wasn't a personal attack, just an observation on your M.O - actually, i think you're winding him up by now.

 

[Pat ex]

The comment wasn't a personal attack, just an observation on your M.O - actually, i think you're winding him up by now.

Not at all, just challenging his assumption that the boat never made it into British waters.
Scrutiny of such assumptions is all part of participating in social media.
And in Motorbiking's case, his hostility to refugees and migration in general is legend, and his claims, especially in that regard, deserve to be scrutinised.

 

[Justin Passing]

Boat -
Testimonies don't agree, so someone is lying, probably more than one.
I'd start by seeing whose interest is served by lying. If there are any inconsistencies in a person's story, then lies are probably being told. Look to see who might be covering his ass, or trying to accuse/gain favour. If there's more than about one inconsistency pointing to one person, discount his whole testimony.

Those with most to gain are most motivated to lie, those whose actions are on record, less so, as are those who can afford to act dispassionately..
Each border force may lie to protect their job, the man on the boat is motivated to lie, to try to get to Britain.

It's worth looking at the Sky report ( unless it was referenced already ).

English Channel deaths: How the tragedy unfolded and 27 people lost their lives

Survivors of the tragedy have claimed French and British authorities didn't respond to calls for help amid conflicting information about whose waters they were in.

news.sky.com

Having read everything in this thread and elswehere that I can find, for me, it adds up to this:
there are too many inconsistencies in the story from the "friend" Taha. He's lying. He also has a clear motive.
The reports in the Telegraph, and two in Le Monde, point only to the French side's guilt.
The only suggestion that the calls were made from UK waters were from a claim made by the discredited friend of the guy in the boat who says that the since discredited French radio man said they were in UK waters. The French have since investigated and not found any record of that. We can be sure they would have been loud about it.
Oops.

The Interin MAIB report does not, as has been claimed, imply any guilt on the UK side. Quite the opposite.

I'd like to see records of who said what to whom. If the UK side are at fault, then bang them to rights. If any procedure or record-keeping is inadequate, change it and publish it. But nothing's come to light so far.

 

[carmanmemoranda]

Genuine question to motorbiking.

Is the tide likely to have affected their position much ?

 

[Justin Passing]

Genuine question to motorbiking.

Is the tide likely to have affected their position much ?

I know I'm not him. , On that you can read from "Taha" that it took 3 hours to get from leaving, to the Calais Dover line, 9pm to 12. That was very slow for 10 miles, given the same commentator thought they'd be at Dover around 2 (34- miles total). Maybe the motor was failing, maybe the tide pushed against them. The times are a bit uncertain though.
Then a further 45 minutes to get them to the UK border, then they claimed to be 5 miles past it. Eh? Lies.
That account is all a bit of a nonsense of make believe. I like the bit where they debate which way to go after the engine failed.. I'd suggest nowhere, much, since there's no mention of oars.

 

[Pat ex]

I think the truth lies somewhere in the margins.
Maybe they were on or about the dividing line between Britain and France.
It's perfectly feasible that the bodies could have drifted less than a mile back into French waters over a 12 hour period. They would have been subjected to a complete ebb tide and a complete flood tide in the Channel, and a Northerly wind.

The culpability probably lies equally between the two, both assuming the other is responsible and would render assistance.
In cases of doubt and uncertainty, they both should have responded. If it were a ferry or fishing boat disaster, the world would have been horrified, and there would have been uproar in the maritime world.
But the French were having a busy night, and the British were having a quiet time.

In the geo-political reality, this lack of cooperation between the French and British probably emanated from the continual blame levelled against the French by the British for the flow of refugees. The refugees have become a pawn in this xenophobic and prejudiced argument.

This blame game continues on social media, by the typical culprits, such as Motorbiking pre-empting the official investigation to promote the blame game against the French, assisted by the continual trolling of others like transam and gone.

It's a sad world when a blame game, motivated by prejudice and xenophobia leads to the death of so many refugees, not just in the Channel, but world-wide.

 

[motorbiking]

Genuine question to motorbiking.

Is the tide likely to have affected their position much ?

We know when they were found and where they were found. The impact of the tidal stream, entirely depends on when propulsion failed and if they had more ebbs than floods. From the photos of the "dingy", and reports it was DIY 10m inflatable with flimsy PVC pontoons and no reinforcement anywhere. 2.3 tonnes of human cargo squeezed into/onto that.

I've produced two models, with propulsion failure around midnight and the other 2-3 hours later. The shorter model shows they would have been pushed slightly towards UK waters. The longer shows no more than 1-2 cables SW.

We also have the recorded mayday relay from cap gris-nez, who were coordinating the rescue. If this was the genuine full message its highly unusual.

Mayday relay, mayday relay, mayday relay.

"This is Gris-Nez emergency, Gris-Nez emergency, Gris-Nez emergency.

"15 man overboard, approximately. 15 man overboard.

"All ships in this area are requested to have a sharp lookout to proceed to this area to take contact and report any information to Gris-Nez emergency coordinating this operation."

It is normal for a mayday relay to give a location or last known position and time. This is essential for any SARs operation.

From location of the survivors at the time of pickup, you can plot their approx position by each hour back.
Dover <M> tidal stream (the closest to their known position).

2332 slack
0004 turn 0.7 SW (approx 15 mins)
0232 1.68kts 46º
0552 turn 0.5 SW (approx 15 mins)
0632 slack
0649 turn 0.5 NW (approx 15 mins)
0952 1.76kts 233º
1152 slack
12:13 turn 0.7 SW (approx 15 mins)
1452 1.68kts 46º

Given it was roughly 80% of a spring tide, the NW/SE turn points last barely 15 minutes before / after each slack tide and these are the peak flows.
If they lost propulsion before midnight, they will have been pushed back 0.1-0.2 NM Maximum. If they lost it later, the tide would take them slightly closer to the UK.

Who's to blame:
Traffickers - boat was massively overloaded and highly unlikely to be safe for 34 people.
Adult Migrants themselves - You don't have to be an expert in boats to know that 34 people in a home made boat in cold water attempting to cross 20-30 miles at night is stupid.
Coordinating rescuers - might have some learning, based on the mayday relay. But then if the Illegals were fibbing about their location, how the hell can someone successfully search for them?

The argument that French rescuers were busy and UK weren't is nonsense. This is one of busiest shipping lanes in the world. Standard procedure is to task local vessels. Based on the Mayday relay they had no idea where the MOBs were to task anyone.

However, once you say ""All ships in this area are requested to have a sharp lookout to proceed to this area to take contact and report any information to Gris-Nez emergency coordinating this operation." You are in charge.

 

[ajohn]

Maybe they were on or about the dividing line between Britain and France.

That fits in with the initial comments that were kicking about. That before the Chinese whispers started. More recently no engine problem, inflatable deflating - the official comments. Time to cross. Looking at images where it can be seen 20 or 40hp might be used. One of the 40;s was on the larger size of inflatable used now. May well be more than the boat is intended to take or an ambitious rating. Earlier small boats may even have been paddled across, Inflatables are easy to hole. I bought one of an Ex RN bloke. He had used it to tend a stretch of river. Far higher gauge material than usual and the model had seen military use. Turned out that it had a slow leak that took an hour or two to show much effect. He didn't tell me of course. Twerp was incapable of fixing it. Probably an officer. He would have been better of with a light weight fibreglass dingy etc,

There is a gov paper about what has been going on

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5803/cmselect/cmhaff/199/report.html

The comment about the French dispersing the ones they catch isn't fair really due to the refugee convention. It repeats what has been recently said in the house
Migration, including irregular migration across the English Channel, is an issue on which no magical single solution is possible
This doesn't stop them pretending there is or playing the blame game - not that politicians actually are really officially. The latest change is more help for the French and a closer look at what is actually going on. That is not blame is it.

 

[motorbiking]

There is a funny thing about non-planing vessels, which is hard to get your head round. No amount of excess HP will make them go faster if they never plane out of the water. With 34 people on this boat, it wouldn't make any difference if you put a 50hp or 100hp outboard on it.

Example: This boat would have a similar top speed with just 2 600hp motors rather than 6. It may actually go faster with less. I've no idea why someone specs $1/2 a million on motors instead of $100k - small willy?

 

[ajohn]

No amount of excess HP will make them go faster i

Not entirely true as planing allows them to go faster for HP used providing they can get to a speed that allows them to plane.

The speed increase for more power on a none planing boat is a lot less efficient. Simple physics say speed will increase.

Based on what I have seen but dependent on where a boat is used inshore a none planing boat needs ~10hp. At 4 or 5 it could need a tow due to tides. That in itself disproves the "theory".