Immigration Crisis

[Pat ex]

My objective was to determine if it was possible for wind and "waves" to push the illegal immigrants from UK waters (the claim was they were approx 5km inside UK waters before propulsion failed) back in to French waters (1-2Nm where they were found). I have proved it wasn't. All credible sources agree with me.

I got the weather wrong as I misread the historic source. I accepted this and used the Dover buoy historic source. Given it was an F3 (A gentle breeze of 7-10kts), the wind made little difference.
I based my first model on the report that the survivors were found 7NM off the coast of Calais as per the Wiki page. My initial EP was therefore 2NM SE to their location.

In all my Models I used Dover <M> which is the closest tidal stream with dover as the reference port.
I've repeatedly told you that you model from HW Dover as its the reference (Standard Port) for tidal flow. Local tides are irrelevant.
I modelled two scenarios from loss of propulsion Midnight and 2AM UTC. When they started is irrelevant. We know where they were found and approximately when they went in to the water (as in MOB) /lost propulsion. The Time of MOB.

I have no objection to scrutiny, but its helpful if you learn the established methods/science. I showed you repeatedly how to calculate everything. Instead you tried to make up your own method and mostly got it wrong.

You're still misrepresenting vital facts.
Their departure time is vitally relevant.
If they started at 20.00hrs, (instead of midnight) at 5 knots, the would have sailed about 20 nautical miles more than your estimation, (around half of their intended journey).

If the distance of drift is reduced to less than a mile, it becomes perfectly conceivable that the bodies may have drifted that amount.
Your errors were always in favour of supporting your prejudice and hostility towards refugees.

 

[Pat ex]

...
Nothing in UK law, French law or international maritime law would have prevented the RNLI from rescuing illegal migrants in French waters and taking them to the nearest safe port (probably Calais).

It's highly probable that the RNLI would have rescued them to UK, that would place them liable to prosecution from UK, for transporting refugees from French waters to UK.

If that was the reality, then the UK legislation partly contributed to the refugees drowning.

 

[motorbiking]

It's highly probable that the RNLI would have rescued them to UK, that would place them liable to prosecution from UK, for transporting refugees from French waters to UK.

If that was the reality, then the UK legislation partly contributed to the refugees drowning.

Why? They would be suffering from hypothermia and in need of urgent medical help. Why would you add time to your journey, time that you are unable to help anyone else?

You're still misrepresenting vital facts.
Their departure time is vitally relevant.
If they started at 20.00hrs, (instead of midnight) at 5 knots, the would have sailed about 20 nautical miles more than your estimation, (around half of their intended journey).

If the distance of drift is reduced to less than a mile, it becomes perfectly conceivable that the bodies may have drifted that amount.
Your errors were always in favour of supporting your prejudice and hostility towards refugees.

No it really isn't. ETD 1900UTC would have got them safely at dover by 0200 (3AM French time) at 5kts. The time they sank. So clearly something went wrong with their speed and course. Nobody claims they turned back. The only claim is they were inside UK waters (approx 5km) at the time they sank and were pushed back to French waters by the waves. if that was true they would have been found in UK waters, somewhere along the black line (at any time).

My View based on the 8PM start time, they were avg 4kts not 5kts. They got to the Dover/Calais line just after midnight and sank in WP2 at best. The red and purple pin lines show where they were found

 

[Pat ex]

Why? They would be suffering from hypothermia and in need of urgent medical help. Why would you add time to your journey, time that you are unable to help anyone else?

The Dover RNLI and the Calais SNSM are equidistant from the position that the bodies were found, very close to, if not inside British waters.
It would probably be expeditious for them to return to a familiar landing point, in Dover, with associated ambulance waiting, than a strange landing point, in Calais.

No it really isn't. ETD 1900UTC would have got them safely at dover by 0200 (3AM French time) at 5kts.

If they started at 20.00 hrs, travelling at 5 knots, they would have completed only about 27.5 nautical miles, by 01.30hrs, on a 40 nautical mile crossing, not including any allowance for course deviation for wind and tide. It's highly probable that they made little extra headway after that first call at 01.30hrs.
To suggest that they would have completed their entire journey is nonsense. 19.00 hrs to 02.00hrs is just 7 seven hours at 5 knots is just 35 nautical miles of a 40 nautical mile journey.

And now you're adjusting their speed to 4 knots, when initially you were suggesting they were travelling at 5 -6 knots....

My View based on the 8PM start time, they were avg 4kts not 5kts. They got to the Dover/Calais line just after midnight

approximate speed 5-6kts + the benefit of around 1kt of tide assistance and a bit of help from the wind.
....

In addition, you claimed that the tide would assist their passage, quite the reverse, it was a flood tide pushing them back into the North sea.

You are continually adjusting your claims as they are scrutinised.

 

[motorbiking]

You are still not getting the hang of this cross channel passage planning thing are you?

RNLI employ professional skippers, they aren't likely to be confused by an unfamiliar port. They will almost certainly have lots of experience of cross channel port crossing and of course have a pilot guide on board.

 

[Pat ex]

You are still not getting the hang of this cross channel passage planning thing are you?

RNLI employ professional skippers, they aren't likely to be confused by an unfamiliar port. They will almost certainly have lots of experience of cross channel port crossing and of course have a pilot guide on board.

But Dover and Calais is equidistant from the position that the bodies were discovered. Why would they go to a less familiar port?
They not only will be far more familiar with their home port, but also the hand-over of casualties and/or bodies.
And they wouldn't need to make a return journey to their home port.

 

[motorbiking]

CGN were coordinating so French jurisdiction. Calais was nearest port. 3NM makes a difference even at 20kts.

 

[Pat ex]

CGN were coordinating so French jurisdiction. Calais was nearest port. 3NM makes a difference even at 20kts.

They were on or about the dividing line, so the difference may have been 0-1 nautical miles.
At 20knots, 1 nautical mile (the furthest probable) would take about 3 minutes, and the familiarity might save them that amount of time.
And from Dover they would be available again within minutes for another shout.

 

[motorbiking]

Have a go at measuring the distance from the Dover Lifeboat station (in Dover marina) to Calais town quay. Then place a way point on the territorial line at about the point where it changes angles (which is where they were found). You will find dover is a bit further away. The territorial line is not the half way point from Dover to Calais at the location they were found. For some reason the UK gets a bit more of the English Channel than France at that point.

Use Navionics, you can use the dividers at the bottom right hand corner of the screen. There is a good 3-5NM in it.

There is no issue of familiarity, I'm sure you could drive a boat towards the flashing emergency services lights at night with a chart plotter.
The RNLI have been reported assisting migrants in French territorial waters as have French in UK waters, neither have taken them back to France and nobody has been prosecuted. If they made a regular habit of it like the NGOs in the med, maybe that would change.

We do however, have evidence that these people will do whatever they can to avoid being aided by French vessels including threatening to throw people overboard if they are intercepted.

Ms Moreton said it was a common tactic for migrants to threaten to throw someone overboard if a French vessel came too close, because migrants knew if they were picked up by a UK ship they were "as good as here".

Channel crossings: Claim Border Force picked up migrants in French waters

The Home Office investigates a report migrants were picked up in French seas and brought to Dover.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[ajohn]

Sunak's new plan must be working ( sic )

Date	Migrants detected	Boats detected
21 November 2022	0	0
22 November 2022	0	0
23 November 2022	0	0
24 November 2022	0	0
25 November 2022	0	0
26 November 2022	36	1
27 November 2022	0	0

 

[Pat ex]

Have a go at measuring the distance from the Dover Lifeboat station (in Dover marina) to Calais town quay. Then place a way point on the territorial line at about the point where it changes angles (which is where they were found). You will find dover is a bit further away. The territorial line is not the half way point from Dover to Calais at the location they were found. For some reason the UK gets a bit more of the English Channel than France at that point.

Now you've become an expert on the precise location that they were found. Originally your guesses were out by up to 2 nautical miles.

If the dividing line is nearer to France than it is to Britain, doesn't that make it more probable that they reached that border line in the time allowed?

 

[Pat ex]

Sunak's new plan must be working ( sic )

Date	Migrants detected	Boats detected
21 November 2022	0	0
22 November 2022	0	0
23 November 2022	0	0
24 November 2022	0	0
25 November 2022	0	0
26 November 2022	36	1
27 November 2022	0	0

Don't let the figures fool you.
It isn't a case of the refugee not attempting the crossing, it's the Border guards on strike for more pay, just like the train drivers, the nurses, the postmen, barristers, container port workers, Telecoms, teachers, binmen, etc.

 

[motorbiking]

Given the time allowed and a speed of 5-6kts, they should have reached the UK mainland (7.5hrs), but clearly something went wrong. The passage plan appears to rely on following the ferries from Dover/Calais rather than choosing the shortest route 280-290ºT allowing for the tide and departure 1900UTC, which would have landed them in St Margaret's Bay. Leaving 2 hours later would have been better 270-280ºT as they would have more tide taking them in the right direction. If they were doing more like 4-5kts then something around 285ºT is optimum, noting that it would be pretty hard to maintain a precise heading in such a vessel.

As it is we know they never made it and sank about 1/2 a mile SE from the territorial line.

Hopefully the government will close the "I was Trafficked" loophole soon, so that illegal immigrants can be deported quicker.

Tory MPs’ plan for immediate return of Albanian asylum seekers ‘unworkable’

Refugee groups says proposal would breach UN convention and put vulnerable people at risk

www.theguardian.com

Send home illegal migrants who claim to be slavery victims, MPs tell Rishi Sunak

Letter from over 50 Tory MPs, led by David Davis, urges Prime Minister to pass emergency laws to crack down on ‘bogus’ asylum seekers

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[ajohn]

As it is we know they never made it and sank about 1/2 a mile SE from the territorial line.

You don't know. You just know where bodies etc were found. You do not know when they finished up in the water. You also don't know when the engine failed or the deflation rate.

 

[Pat ex]

You don't know. You just know where bodies etc were found. You do not know when they finished up in the water. You also don't know when the engine failed or the deflation rate.

Motorbiking's hostility to refugees is pretty evident, so like others of similar disposition, facts are not as important as prejudice.