Putin, arse, elbow

[Justin Passing]

The Russians do have posh kit, like their T-14 tanks which outperform the US Abrams in rate of fire, and distance. Similar for sso,e planes, ships, missiles, you name it. There's a load of "enthusiasts" on the net who like tocount what goes through military displays and log the details. Russian propaganda fils too, show their stuff. They don't seem to be using their best weapons or their best soldiers. From what there is to read, they have favoured and unfavoured divisions in their army. They use conscripts and various "ethnics" - eg in advance on Kyiv.
The better lot are down Donbas way.

Both sides can step up the quality "in theatre" IF the west can get "materiel" in without it being blown up. There are a lot of pro Russian people in the country. If I were Putin I'd be paying for intel I couldn't get from reconnaisance etc. He has much better than satellite pictures of anywhere he's interested in. He was quick to blow up the West's arms delivery in the "maintenace facilty" near Lviv with his hypersonic missiles, which mean there was no warning.
If it comes to trying to drive Russian troops beck out of Donbas, well I don't see it ever happening. West's assets would be there to be hit, which Putin can do from inside Russia. I don't see much targeting of Russia being likely.
But then I keep thinking Puting can do x y and z, but then he proves he can't. Does he want Zelensky to give in, in which case there's much more he could do, or does he want to prolong the agony?

 

[Justin Passing]

No your missing mine. I have already mentioned that I had not missed yours. I just question what they will achieve and mentioned why. Also that NATO agreed to sending them -unlike the migs.

You didn't have a point.
Putting a new type of weapon, previously cited by Russia as significant into the arena, could escalate the war significantly. Like if someone came into your house waving a gun about.

You saying they might have trouble fuelling them is like saying, ah but does the gunman have supplies of bullets on the way. F'ing irrelevant. It applies to every piece of armament they have.
Tanks coming in from the west are an escalation even if they haven't started the engines. It's the sumbol that counts. Of course a few old Soviet style tanks won't affect the war - whether they get fuel or not isn't even worth considering.

 

[Doug99]

Oh dear. Putin will be dancing about that. A split in NATO is just what he wants.
It's stretch to say a tank is defensive. I'd prefer to see A10's (tankbusters/"Warthogs") and some of these: https://taskandpurpose.com/military-tech/army-smart-artillery-shell/

When preventing an enemy the ability to advance, defensive weaponry is used. When the enemy has overrun and successfully taken hold of a town/village, it takes offensive weapons to push them back.
As Ukraine were unable to defend its border, there is justification now for them to use offensive weaponry to push the enemy back from whence they came.

 

[ajohn]

Putting a new type of weapon, previously cited by Russia as significant into the arena, could escalate the war significantly. Like if someone came into your house waving a gun about.

Curiously they just had a usa general on C4 who spent several years there training Ukrainian troops. When asked about tanks he wasn't impressed and thinks the best answer is anti tank stuff as they can more than make up for differences in tank counts. He did outline stuff that they need to aid winning. Doesn't take much imagination as to what those were. He also added that really that sort of thing should have been bolstered up before Putin invaded to an extent to put him off.

You also need to consider what tanks can be used for that missiles can do a better job of and other things that are more portable and can do the same. I saw one thing in Kiev that a tank could make short work of. A guy out of uniform with a gun behind a barrier waiting for them to come. It wouldn't take much of a tank and if in a built up area a tank than can shoot for getting up to a mile or so wouldn't offer any advantage unless at the end of a rather long road. Various guided missiles could be used for the same thing. Maybe they are. It would explain a lot of blast damage.

What he said they do need is consistent supplies even ammunition. That has been mentioned several time recently which may mean there is some sort of problem.

Edit - he also added no winner really in this type of war due to damage.

 

[Charlie George]

The Russians do have posh kit, like their T-14 tanks which outperform the US Abrams in rate of fire, and distance. Similar for sso,e planes, ships, missiles, you name it. There's a load of "enthusiasts" on the net who like tocount what goes through military displays and log the details. Russian propaganda fils too, show their stuff. They don't seem to be using their best weapons or their best soldiers. From what there is to read, they have favoured and unfavoured divisions in their army. They use conscripts and various "ethnics" - eg in advance on Kyiv.
The better lot are down Donbas way.

Both sides can step up the quality "in theatre" IF the west can get "materiel" in without it being blown up. There are a lot of pro Russian people in the country. If I were Putin I'd be paying for intel I couldn't get from reconnaisance etc. He has much better than satellite pictures of anywhere he's interested in. He was quick to blow up the West's arms delivery in the "maintenace facilty" near Lviv with his hypersonic missiles, which mean there was no warning.
If it comes to trying to drive Russian troops beck out of Donbas, well I don't see it ever happening. West's assets would be there to be hit, which Putin can do from inside Russia. I don't see much targeting of Russia being likely.
But then I keep thinking Puting can do x y and z, but then he proves he can't. Does he want Zelensky to give in, in which case there's much more he could do, or does he want to prolong the agony?

The Russians don't have T-14s in service, and a lot of their better stuff is only available in small numbers, 90% of their equipment is the stuff we see in Ukraine.
Logistics is the area Russia really struggle most of their equipment moves by train,and once in Ukraine they stayed on main roads because once they left the road they became stuck in mud, and that 40km convoy North of Kyiv would of had NATO AH-64 Apache pilots salivating.
This is a convoy on the way to Ukraine, can you spot the scobby do vans or the bright red tipper trucks.

 

[ajohn]

The mud season doesn't last all that long. They only have 11,000 tanks and it seems 635 of the "dear" one. They also have a number of tank like items

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Russian_Ground_Forces

How accurate is that though. Russia may have written it. The stuck convoy moved - magic. This is one of the problems with news. The people most likely to know what was actually going on are Russian. It's odd that electronic countermeasures were not used or maybe they were. They have displayed more drone types than that but no one can be sure how ready they are. One for surveillance is more like a large model aircraft. A Ukrainian did shoot one of those down or it failed in some way.

 

[JohnD]

11,000 tanks

not any more.

 

[Justin Passing]

The Russians don't have T-14s in service, and a lot of their better stuff is only available in small numbers, 90% of their equipment is the stuff we see in Ukraine.
Logistics is the area Russia really struggle most of their equipment moves by train,and once in Ukraine they stayed on main roads because once they left the road they became stuck in mud, and that 40km convoy North of Kyiv would of had NATO AH-64 Apache pilots salivating.
This is a convoy on the way to Ukraine, can you spot the scobby do vans or the bright red tipper trucks.

SOmeone was obviously conting the T-14s in a Red Square Parade..
https://tass.com/defense/1185129?ut...n.wikipedia.org&utm_referrer=en.wikipedia.org

They probably had Lada Riva engines inside...

 

[transam]

Reports suggest that the UK are going to supply Ukraine with armoured military ? Vechles ???

 

[ajohn]

They probably had Lada Riva engines inside...

Ok for a joke but Russian military gear is well respected. The T14 is a pretty sophisticate tank. It appears to be an attempt to streamline several types of fighting platforms including tanks using the same basic chassis. I doubt if anyone knows how many T14's they have produced or if they feel they are needed in Ukraine. Like the UK, USA and others they make a lot of money selling military kit. There are even some T34's still in use. The tank that an honest analyst will say took a significant part in finishing off Hitler. This and similar plus communism is what cause NATO to form and the Marshall plan. You might say post WWII europe was incapable of defending itself from Stalin. You might say this still applies hence complaints from the USA about countries joining NATO for protection and not really contributing enough. They have a bit of a debt crisis and want to get it down to more usual levels. They seem to expect similar army levels as well or why should USA soldiers die? They also have to be prepared to fight for their country.

11,000 tanks - some of the tank like things seen are just that not tanks.

Ukraine - there seems to be a consensus that it will go on for a long time. Some will say that sending more gear into Ukraine will extend it. Will Russia give up? If Ukraine does what happens next? Pack what's left of Ukraine with weapons will things start up again? Say Russia runs out of gear which I personally think is unlikely and they feel they can't protect themselves any more. That is what the buttons are for.

There are loads of politicians saying various things at the moment. Increasing votes or meaningful or point scoring over others. One USA person has been saying anyone who buys Russian fuels is some sort of animal. Not what Biden thinks. Things have to be realistic. All politicians needn't be. The media will broadcast them.

It all sounds like more wait and see to me. Talk the talk is one thing action can be another.

A Ukraine war crime may have cropped up - it's noticeable that POW camps seem to be missing or if there are who is in them.

The USA has sanctioned Putin's daughters now. Adult ones - don't know if he has younger ones but adult mentioned.

 

[transam]

Russia supplied saddam
Hussain with air defence systems

they seemed to be a bit of a Turkey

and they have traditionally (?) supplied Arab states with military hard ware in there spats / wars with the Israel (?)

there logistics / planning appears to be total s***e

Military discipline / coordination appears
S***e

 

[Charlie George]

A T-14 tank broke down in Moscow military parade in 2015, 7 years ago and yet none in service, they have had nothing but problems with them, and the few they have on trials they wouldn't risk in Ukraine, could you imagine the embarrasment if they were destroyed or captured.
At the moment they are losing around 150 tanks a week, they may have tanks in reserve but these will be older models and not all will be combat ready, plus crews will be needed to replace the lost crews, 70% of Russian fighting forces are currently involved in the war, and Russian losses are already twice the figure lost in the 10 year Afghan war when they had a much larger force.

 

[ajohn]

Arm suppliers change from time to time. It depends on who they are facing. Some odd things going on in Yemen at the moment.

Kiev - if reports of 16,000 troops are correct I don't think there were enough to over run the place and I don't think wars are fought that way any more losses are too high. Maybe Russia thought that some form of attack would reach a settlement or even just use up kit. On the other hand fighting in areas they want has been different. Very different in some places. This all fits in with Putin's stated intentions to some extent. The main ones anyway. He wants Donbas etc. It seems they may have control of one province.

Odessa may turn out like Kiev but if taken it would be a bigger problem for Ukraine. It has 2,500km of deep tunnels which might make taking it tricky. They also need to retain areas they have control of. If they take over Odesa things might go on into Moldova , another separatist area. They may just pack up and go home at any point. Given all of the damage does that mean Ukraine has won?

 

[Justin Passing]

If most of what they're doing is shelling their versions of council flats, then WW2 tanks ones will do just fine. Some of the scenes and tactics don't look very different from those in early pictures (Frith?) from the American Civil war...

Stoltenberg is being pushed on what sort of weapons will be supplied to Ukraine. Macron previously stated there would be no planes or tanks. He's not saying that now, which is the change I mentioned. He said one thing I didn't know - NATO countries have trained "tens of thousands" of their military.

Days, weeks, years, he said. No suggestion of negotiations, Putin has to withdraw.
So it's a meat and metal grinder for the forseeble.

Maybe China will have some influence. Probably not much.

 

[THFC]

The USA has sanctioned Putin's daughters now. Adult ones - don't know if he has younger ones but adult mentioned.

My source tells me that he has a young(ish) son with his mistress and the boy had a British nanny.