Putin, arse, elbow

[Justin Passing]

Right at the beginning of this. I reported the view of a pro military strategist, who said that the more the Ukranians resist, the more it'll hurt because we already know who's going to win. He's still right.
Popular as it may be to enjoy moments of Russian loss and incompetence, it's still true that if they get annoyed enough they can escalate as much as they fancy. So far they've not been at war with Ukraine as a whole. If that had been the case, they'd have flattened Kyiv's centre, and gone for the entire country's C & C, comms, transport, power, water and fuel services and so on.
So far they've been selective about which targets they hit from afar, like the arms dumps in Lviv and arms factories near Kyiv.
Unless we suggest they're running out of ammo, they could just as easily sit back in Russia and hit very many key infrastructure targets.
Why hasn't he done that? Because he wants it for himself? Is Putin sparing Zelesny so he can surrender?

If western-supplied arms become a nuisance to him, Putin has many options. Someone suggested a small Nuke in the North sea, as in "F off, this is my back yard, not your concern". He could hit oil supplies, all sorts. Western supplies are public knowledge, so surely he has to take out railway interchanges?

At the moment he's inching forwards with updated ww2 methods, using tools which he can deploy extensively, assuming a competent commander, which seems to have been lacking on the move towards Kyiv.

Effective resistance to that will mean Putin ratchets up, and up.
Unless we really are prepared for my initial response - bomb Moscow - , I think we have to take it on the chin, with a realisation that the all of the border countries have to become too well defended for Putin-types to invade in future.

Ukraine has in many ways, already lost enough, while Jenny Longface reports from Moscow, that nothing much has changed and Putin is still popular.

 

[transam]

Depends what you mean by win ???

fact is the map of Ukraine will have to be re drawn

Supply the Ukraine with enough weapons of the correct type and Putin will have a bigger problem than he already has

Putin needs an exit strategy

 

[ajohn]

Right at the beginning of this. I reported the view of a pro military strategist, who said that the more the Ukranians resist, the more it'll hurt because we already know who's going to win. He's still right.

We are getting a lot of pro Ukraine propaganda. That can take all sorts of forms and doesn't just come from Ukraine but western observers really do rate what is coming out of there very very highly. It's called winning the information war. They are. Even Putin's initial comments on intentions have been forgotten. It didn't include taking over all of Ukraine and never has. The intention to do that has never been seen either via where he has positioned troops. It's been pretty obvious what he really wants all along.

Kyev - a Russian politician commented on that - if we wanted to capture it quickly the place would have to be flattened. 16,000 troops without that may sound a lot but it isn't.

Lack of a co ordinated USA style shock and awe. Strange but they can read exactly what I have. Do your thing with high end cruise missiles hitting all sorts including trying to hit individuals. Then take a look - what! citizens are all doing what they usually do. Driving around, shopping you name it. Also that it didn't help capture Baghdad. It had to be fought for. A lot of deaths. I'm not saying Russia is doing what ever for this reason just that there is no saying what they were thinking.

There was some interesting footage some time ago now. A town north of Kyev just invited the Russian convoy in and then promptly wiped it out. I can remember wondering what would happen when they came again as they were bound to. All things are possible in war even troops defending or attacking and using civilian aspects such as buildings for protection. This sort of war is not like battle lines forming up in open fields especially when towns and cities etc are involved.

 

[transam]

The Elephant in the room

Putin is 67

probably not in the best of health

ageing dictators that are in ill health tend not to do well

hence all of putins propaganda shoots

of a bare chested action man wrestling with bears
Riding wild horses ect ect

 

[Justin Passing]

Do your thing with high end cruise missiles

He hasn't, though. I gave a list of things he hasn't gone for. If he used the hypersonic ones he could hit Zelezny's place with no chance of Ukranians claiming to have shot them down.
He hit a small number of fuel dumps near the combat areas, recently (7th), that's all. Pussyfooting. He has to stop the incoming weapons.

 

[ajohn]

hence all of putins propaganda shoots

Not funny but I'll post LOL. He actually isn't thrilled to bits with his armed forces. This well before his business with Ukraine. He might even be sitting there saying told you so.

Wars are controlled by the military not politicians.

 

[transam]

Not funny but I'll post LOL. He actually isn't thrilled to bits with his armed forces. This well before his business with Ukraine. He might even be sitting there saying told you so.

Wars are controlled by the military not politicians.

Wars controlled by the military

well Er yes to an extent

wars are not controlled by politicians nonsense / and rubbish



or was it the military who took it upon them selves to secretly bomb Cambodia ?? And not tell Nixon

he was an innocent party than

 

[Diydavey]

Not funny but I'll post LOL. He actually isn't thrilled to bits with his armed forces. This well before his business with Ukraine. He might even be sitting there saying told you so.

Wars are controlled by the military not politicians.

Wars are not controlled by the military. The politicians tell the military what to do ,the military do what the politicians tell them. That's the way it works

 

[Notch7]

it's still true that if they get annoyed enough they can escalate as much as they fancy

No they can’t.

for all its bluster, Russia is scared of an escalation in which NATO and the West get involved.

If that had been the case, they'd have flattened Kyiv's centre, and gone for the entire country's C & C, comms, transport, power, water and fuel services and so on

Russian airforce has been scared of missions over Ukraine, it’s losing too many aircraft - that’s why there was no air superiority by the Russians.

Ukraine has in many ways, already lost enough

no according to many military experts.

in fact Russia has had its troop size reduced by around 25% from death or injury.

Morale is extremely low in the Russian army, they have had to use anti retreat units who back up the Troops and stop them retreating.

so surely he has to take out railway
interchanges

They have been

mind you the Ukrainians have blown up a few stopping Russian movements.

 

[Notch7]

The Elephant in the room

Putin is 67

probably not in the best of health

ageing dictators that are in ill health tend not to do well

hence all of putins propaganda shoots

of a bare chested action man wrestling with bears
Riding wild horses ect ect

Putin allegedly has Thyroid cancer

 

[ajohn]

LOL Another thread wandered so copy pasted here
There hasn't been many reports out of Russia but like all it's been having inflation problems. The ruble value seems to be more or less back where it was. I'm not sure if they can grow say bananas and oranges but would suspect they can match the UK in terms of what they can grow.

Lots of countries are pointing a gun at their heads not just some of the EU. Italy uses a higher % of Russian gas than Germany. Some Eastern European countries use it too. The rest that applies to many countries is various raw materials and grains. They did announce a drop in grain exports though last year, It seems it will take us 12months to end Russian imports and we aren't what could be called a manufacturing country. There is some though and prices of some materials have rocketed already. A pundit reckons that will get worse as supply lines dry up - stuff that is already in the system getting used up.

Germany being Germany I suspect they will do what they have said they will but 2 years may be ambitious.Their industry may shift away from gas too if they use much of it but that needs more electricity. So they shift totally to liquefied gas that doesn't mean the supplies needed are available. That like oil will need to be boosted. That probably needs more plant in countries that can supply it - more gas ships for certain.

A man Ukraine had his say yesterday, He wants 1,000 aircraft, 1000 tanks and 1000 troop carriers. He then added that oil production from places must also be boosted to make up for what Russia exported. I'll put that bluntly. At least one of them knows that the world can't just stop. There are other things too though and not just gas.

They hit a tank repair facility in Kyev yesterday and issued a warning that they will do more of that if Ukraine does certain things and included other legitimate targets including administration centres. Weird, They seem to know they haven't done much of that.

They have given the remaining soldiers in Mariupol the chance to surrender. They are in a very large steel plant which fits in with other reports. Also cleared people out of the surrounding buildings for what will happen next if they don't surrender. All reported to the UN etc. The time period they allowed is up now but no one knows what has happened. Attempts to contact the Azov brigade who are known to be there has failed. There aren't any clear indications on the numbers there.



Read more: https://www.diynot.com/diy/threads/oh-rwanda.590205/page-18#ixzz7Qi6q1r54

 

[denso13]

They hit a tank repair facility in Kyev yesterday and issued a warning that they will do more of that if Ukraine does certain things

Pesky Ukrainians doing whatever they can to defend themselves from invaders. The cheek of it!

They have given the remaining soldiers in Mariupol the chance to surrender.

Very decent of them.

 

[ajohn]

Pedantic people can't appreciate that politicians start wars and the military run them and feel they have to comment

Effective resistance to that will mean Putin ratchets up, and up.

He has were he really wants an area. That was fully outlined by Putin's initial statements about what he was going to do - or more correctly wanted his military to do. The Crimea related aspects weren't mentioned but wanting those particular areas of Ukraine shouldn't surprise anyone. Taking Crimea in the first place was also an obvious move.They leased a port there and were happy with that while they were ok with Ukraine's president. Some pundits reckon the Ukraine invasion was also obvious due to what Russia has done in the past - Russian speakers and some mixed feelings about not being part of Russia so invade.

A pundit was asked about the soldiers left in Mariupol being reinforced and re supplied. He reckons for the last few weeks they haven't been capable of doing that and have more important things to concentrate on. Probably a valid view as the boot would be on the other foot - trying to get soldiers in without unacceptable losses. Maybe they will find some way.

Kharkiv just had an administration building taken out. It wont be clear if they want that for a while.

If the original Donbas war restarts things are different. It appears to be more countrified especially where Ukrainian troops are, It's not clear if other cities are needed. There has been indications that they control a lot of Luhansk - mention of holding a referendum there. The suggestion went down like a lead balloon.

 

[ajohn]

Pesky Ukrainians doing whatever they can to defend themselves from invaders. The cheek of it!



Very decent of them.

Can't you get your head around that the war and invasion are a fact. It being right or wrong is irrelevant now. While it goes on people will be killed. Politicians make decisions on that too.

 

[denso13]

Can't you get your head around that the war and invasion are a fact.

What makes you think I haven't got my head around it?

It being right or wrong is irrelevant now.

No it isn't. Putin should be called out at every opportunity as the murdering aggressor that he is.

While it goes on people will be killed

It doesn't have to go on. Russia could stop it all today. But they won't.

Politicians make decisions on that too.

Exactly.