Ukraine counter offensive

[Odds]

The head of Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group has claimed to have secured control of the salt mining town of Soledar in Ukraine’s east, but uncertainty remains amid continued battles in the city centre.

Soledar has been the focus of days of intense fighting as Russia has viewed it as key to its campaign for the nearby strategic city of Bakhmut and Ukraine’s larger eastern Donbas region.


@AlJazeera

 

[Odds]

Sledgehammer...

...to crack a tough nut.

The 2S4 Tulip self-propelled mortar is 240mm wide and is capable of firing nuclear bombs, but it is likely this would be limited to 'micro-nukes' aimed at destroying an area the size of a football stadium. Transported on its own tracks, it has a range of 12 miles and is used to obliterate large fortifications, military equipment, or troop positions.

The heavy mortar weapon has already seen service in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Syria, with devastating effects.

@TheMirror.co.uk

 

[ajohn]

There has been reports these are around but not confirmed

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8b/T-14_Armata_%2841072263955%29.jpg/1280px-T-14_Armata_%2841072263955%29.jpg

The new battle tank. Looking at the stuff that has been sent to Ukraine Russia has similar.

 

[JohnD]

The Armata is noted for its appearance in parades rather than in combat.

A test batch was due to be delivered last year.

 

[IT Minion]

Wunderwaffles.

They aren't delivering hundreds of them this year.

 

[JohnD]

One of the drawbacks of a megalomaniac deciding to have a war without consulting the army, is that preparation, logistics and rearmament were not started in advance.

Putin formed his world view when Central and Eastern Europe were colonies of the mighty Russian Empire, and when invaded, were either quickly defeated, like Poland, or rolled over and surrendered, like Crimea, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and the Baltic states.

 

[ajohn]

has claimed to have secured control of the salt mining town of Soledar in Ukraine’s east,

According to AlJ Brit intelligence thinks they probably will. Russia itself isn't so clear cut about how things are going there but it's pretty clear that "Russian" troops are in the town. The claim is from the Wagner group who are doing the fighting there. Now 50,000 soldiers 10,000 of them technical people.. A lot larger than they were. Seems they may also control true Russian troops at times.

Ukraine wants tanks. There seems to be some reluctance. Russia will have plenty of one man kit for knocking tanks out. What they seem to be about to get is troop carriers. Not sure if some are fighting vehicles - same with a "bigish" gun. Loosely speaking sort of rather light weight tank.

 

[Justin Passing]

Soledar's gone. Useful mines for storing Russia's Tulips and the rest. Those things have been around 50 years, laser guided, very large shells of various types. Afaik the Ukrs don't have anything comparable.
If anyone has them it's likely those Wagners.


A channel I hadn't seen before:

He has a moan about Ukr corrupt leaders in the last couple of minutes.

 

[ajohn]

The wiki is mixed on the Tulip. Summary and the specific page reckon 400 in storage. Then 100 active and 9 active, Respectively. One destroyed by Ukraine. Seems they or some were modernised in 2017.

 

[Odds]

As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 323rd day, take a look at the main developments.

@AlJazeera

Russian mercenaries have released video of troops in the salt mines although fighting appears to be ongoing for the town. Taking Soledar is one thing; holding on to it a very different prospect.

I'd take a guess the Russians are trying to take Bakhmut to control the approaches to Slovyansk and the rail/road hub for their Spring offensive, assuming they're going to try again an assault on Kharkiv. Reports of up to 500,000 recruits could make that a real possibility and the new commander will have orders to throw everything into the attack. Putin cannot afford to fail this time.

 

[ajohn]

try again an assault on Kharkiv. Reports of up to 500,000 recruits could make that a real possibility and the new commander will have orders to throw everything into the attack.

Russia is going to fight WWII style. I'll bet they wont.

Soledar. If the watered down report is correct Ukrainian troops in it are cut off to some degree. The oly that runs the wagner group is after poiltical mileage just as Zelenskyy's comments are. We don't know which version is most accurate. If there is a pocket of resistance there some area of it will be devastated as per Mariupol if the Russians are in control. There was signs of that sort of thing in a place recaptured by Ukraine. If Ukraine move out of Soledar they will start shelling it. Some think capturing it will help Russia capture other more significant places in the same general area. Some think it's more the wagner oly showing off and even that may be incorrect. A win is a good thing for Russia to report who ever does it. Russia does seem to have made gains in the east at the usual slow rate. The war is more like street fighting in some ways other than both sides are using shells etc even from a long way off.

No one has mentioned barrels. Ukraine's heavier western stuff has to go to Poland for a refit. They want to go DIY but have none. Russia's will be wearing out too.

We hear n missiles launched by Russia and n shot down, some hitting unintended targets. We don't here how many etc Ukraine send.

 

[JohnD]

Russia has been reduced to dragging 60-year old tanks out of storage and putting them into action. They are very prone to leaking grease and fluids from perished seals. There is a shortage of 80-year old mechanics with the skills to repair them. They use different ammunition from those in the logistics system.

I suppose briefly-trained expendable conscripts from the minority nations, and convicts released from prison, don't deserve better.

 

[Justin Passing]

Everypne's busily taking the p out of what the Russians have but much of Ukr's looks like old Soviet too.
TV prog a couple of weeks ago had a journo witha fighting group on the Ukr side.
They received ONE USA mortar, bigger than they'd had before, bore maybe 100mm.
with a dozen rounds. They weren't sure if they had the right instructions with it. They were aiming at a tank, with a little drone's image to feed back the aiming corrections to be made. They used half the mortar bombs without getting near anything. The guy who was using the aiming drone had a strop and refused to do the job any more. They wasted the rest. They 'regrouped' , to about a dozen men, and found they had not much more than machine guns.
Stuff from the west looks great, but divide it up over that enormous front line. Bradley fighting vehicles, woo woo. A bus with a 25/30mm gun.

It's very odd hearing about a war being run with old stuff, almost WW2 style, but nobody dare use airplanes, and they can't get the supply lines for fear of the other side getting serious.

 

[ajohn]

A lot of the stuff is periodically updated. They have another big mortar, An alarm has to sound before it's fired otherwise the crew are likely to suffer from concussion. It can fire and move before the mortar hits rather a long way away.

Aircraft. Pass but earlier on Brit intelligence mention that big hits and large craters were not missile related. Low level bombing runs were being used, There is a list of aricraft here. I think they have had problems with their stealth bomber or did have - pass

List of active Russian military aircraft - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[transam]

Turkey are supplying the Ukranians with cluster munitions / bombs

( allegedly)

Very likely ( certain) that the Uk
Will
Supply challenger tanks ??