Ukraine counter offensive

[JohnD]

According to Russia, the war they started is already with NATO!

There is a joke about a Russian man who woke up from a year-long coma, and asked the Doctor what had happened.

The Doctor replied, "Its not good, we are at war with NATO, we have lost 460,000 men with 115,000 killed, 344,000 wounded and a thousand prisoners of war. We have also lost 6,200 combat vehicles, 3,100 tanks 2,100 artillery, 286 aircraft, 276 helicopters and 17 ships, including the flagship."

"The man replied, that awful, what has NATO lost?" The Doctor replied, "They haven't mobilised yet."

 

[IT Minion]

Shipping tanks isn't that slow. They'll probably go by Rail to Germany or Poland then switch to low loaders. The slow bit is training the operators.

MBTs are hard to kill with man portable weapons. Generally you want artillery or other tanks to do it. The most dangerous weapons an infantryman has are GPS, a radio and an awake artillery battery. Bonus points for a laser designator.

Also you haven't seen that many tanks killed in attacks by infantry weapons. Because they're really dangerous when they're pointing at you and the armour is thickest at the front. Ambushes are the way to kill tanks if you're not in armour yourself. Especially against Russian doctrine as they have poor visibility and most of their optics have been stolen so you have a much better chance of not being killed by the tank from a few KM away. And you wouldn't use Javelin for that if you have a choice, Javelin is better for killing IFVs but it's light for tanks.

Maintenance would be done back in Poland, just like it is done for other Western kit.

 

[JohnD]

Some interesting opinions

"Russia will run out of tanks in 280 days"

"Stocks of shells running out"

"Russia had about 17 million artillery shells before the start of the war, both since 1991 and ex-Soviet stocks. Average rate of fire since February is about 30,000 artillery shells per day, maybe 50,000 at peak in summer. Altogether, almost eleven months after the start of the war, that's about 10 million artillery shells that Russia has fired so far."

Which is why they have cut usage.

"Für Russland geht es in Richtung Sowjetunion"

Russlands Wirtschaft leidet unter den Folgen des Überfalls auf die Ukraine. Die Rüstungsindustrie verschlingt Unsummen, durch die Mobilisierung fehlen Arbeitskräfte. Im ntv.de-Interview prognostiziert Militärökonom Keupp dem Kreml eine düstere Zukunft - auch für deutsche Firmen, die geblieben sind.

www.n-tv.de

 

[Justin Passing]

If you google for Ukraine's tank losses, you don't find much. It's not exciting news in the west. The much-vaunted shoulder launched anti tank weapons didn't count for as many Ru tanks as boring old artillery, apparently informed sources are saying now, despite what made the news when it started.

Anyone seen a reliable figure for how many tanks Ukraine has lost? One site says they have more than when they started because they seized Russian ones. Right....
Practically everything written out there is really one sided. That German article emphasizes Russia's shortage of shells. What about Ukraine's????
The Russians have a Kornet A-T missile they claim is the best. I'd not heard of it on the news.

Russia has its own effective anti-tank missiles that its trying to bring to bear on the battlefield in Ukraine

Standoff anti-tank missiles have had a prominent role in Russia's war on Ukraine, but Ukraine appears to be using them more effectively than Russia.

www.businessinsider.com

90 tanks - no point sending Abrams: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...et-90-tanks-as-kherson-counteroffensive-looms

Lepards and Challengers both Diesel, 120mm guns, Ch rifled, Lep smooth.

 

[ajohn]

Choosing the T-72B is interesting. What series? It will be the most advanced tank in this battlefield? Russia has been using T-80's and 90's. It seems some T-72's were upgraded to near T-80 levels. They have plenty of T-80's and there are wiki reports that T-14's have been moved to the Donbas area. Most info on those is rumour and talk of upgrades to T-80'd and T-90's as quicker than filling a 2,300 order forT-14's Upgrades tend to be armour and aiming etc so the other side develop stuff to kill it. Much the same on both main sides. Odd thing is they wont know if it works until it's used in anger. A T-72 in Iraq may well not be the same as T-72 in Russia that is in active service or in reserve either really. Eastern European versions ?????

There has been footage of Russian tanks being used more conventionally in towns/cities with their troops around but not much info on how they got on. Looked like shelling at range to me along streets. Not much evidence or previous shelling or WWII style initial bombing. However an area of a place Ukraine captured look more like a WWII affair, worse in some way as nothing intact in sight.

One thing that might make a difference is western propoganda getting into Russia but they will be pumping out their own just as our lot are.

 

[Charlie George]

Not much evidence or previous shelling or WWII style initial bombing. However an area of a place Ukraine captured look more like a WWII affair, worse in some way as nothing intact in sight.

One thing that might make a difference is western propoganda getting into Russia but they will be pumping out their own just as our lot are.

Do you seriously believe that? what utter garbage.
Is this enough evidence for you? plenty of others too.

 

[IT Minion]

Choosing the T-72B is interesting. What series? It will be the most advanced tank in this battlefield? Russia has been using T-80's and 90's. It seems some T-72's were upgraded to near T-80 levels. They have plenty of T-80's and there are wiki reports that T-14's have been moved to the Donbas area. Most info on those is rumour and talk of upgrades to T-80'd and T-90's as quicker than filling a 2,300 order forT-14's Upgrades tend to be armour and aiming etc so the other side develop stuff to kill it. Much the same on both main sides. Odd thing is they wont know if it works until it's used in anger. A T-72 in Iraq may well not be the same as T-72 in Russia that is in active service or in reserve either really. Eastern European versions ?????

There has been footage of Russian tanks being used more conventionally in towns/cities with their troops around but not much info on how they got on. Looked like shelling at range to me along streets. Not much evidence or previous shelling or WWII style initial bombing. However an area of a place Ukraine captured look more like a WWII affair, worse in some way as nothing intact in sight.

One thing that might make a difference is western propoganda getting into Russia but they will be pumping out their own just as our lot are.

The T72 is the main tank in use in Ukraine. T80/T90s are in shorter supply. They've lost a huge proportion of their pre-war active units of T80s in particular

https://twitter.com/x/status/1607457387631230976

T14 isn't available in meaningful numbers, probably similar to the number of Challenger II tanks.

 

[ajohn]

Bomb, shells tanks WWII. Bombs do a different type of damage. Preserved so people can go look at it.

The Germans also killed everybody in it. All.

 

[JohnD]

They have plenty of T-80's

Not any more.

 

[ajohn]

The T72 is the main tank in use in Ukraine. T80/T90s are in shorter supply.

The wiki keeps a track of tank and other losses in Ukraine also Russian reserve levels.

List of equipment of the Russian Ground Forces - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It seems Ukraine got 30 missiles yesterday claiming 20 shot down. One apartment demolished, ~23dead? Deliberate or what? Power seems to have been hit again but no full details.

A bit more from Solidar. Reporter ~2km outside with a few Ukrainian troops. Some western weapons around and a number of troop carriers, 3 shown going in. A soldier said it will be difficult to drive them out. The reporter wondered if the troop carriers were for a withdrawal. Some route was shown as being shelled but no idea which and not the one the reporter was on. The troop carriers all looked rather new. Footage of rather old anti aircraft kit.

 

[IT Minion]

The wiki keeps a track of tank and other losses in Ukraine also Russian reserve levels.

List of equipment of the Russian Ground Forces - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Yes, the wiki uses the same sources for pre war stocks and losses.

 

[ajohn]

They've lost a huge proportion of their pre-war active units of T80s in particular

They are % of ones in active service before the war not the number Russia has. Capable tank crews and support is of more interest really. Both sides??? Poland appears to be the barrel replacer on western gear.

The wiki mentions more tanks being bought out. They had been upgrading T-72's since 2010. Seems similar is going on with 80's and 90's. Rumour though in that particular area. Maybe there are spies where the work is done.

Soledar. I very much doubt that Ukraine will try to hold where the AlJ reporter was. Open countryside. All sorts could be thrown at them. Not enough soldiers to hold anything anyway. That area may take a while to establish exactly what is going on there, Even longer to see if it has strategic advantages. The report may have been propaganda anyway. Roving reporters in Ukraine don't seem to be allowed any more.

 

[Justin Passing]

Charlie G's video is telling.

Remind me who's running out of ammo??

 

[IT Minion]

Charlie G's video is telling.

Remind me who's running out of ammo??

You do know both sides are shelling Soledar heavily at the moment? As soon as you pull out of a position then your artillery should be hammering it to catch the enemy troops in the open.

But Russia won't ever run out of artillery rounds entirely. They make their own so there will be a constant supply. What they might do is start having to reduce the weight of fire they can use at any single point. Or reduce the number of offensives they can launch at a time.

Wagner have been complaining about a shortage of shells and they're on point for the only active offensive at the moment. It doesn't imply infinite amunition.

 

[transam]

They should give the Ukraine them US made

Stealth air craft bombers ??