Ukraine counter offensive

[Justin Passing]

The other way would be bombing.

Last century? Afghanistan? "The" other way!! Hardly the only way to wage war.
The document referenced was written by retired old soldiers , in 2016, when they were even assuming and presuming about the capabilities with UAVs - which had only seen incorporation into operations for three years, back then.

Everyone likes to say how crap Russian everything is, as though they'll be getting to a point where they say, "OK westies, we ran out, game is up, we stop now".
They might be píss poor at a lot of things, but I don't buy it. They're reported by Ukraine to be firing 60,000 missiles a day - ten times what they get in return. That's not running out behaviour. It would be far more efficient, if slow, to concentrate on infrastructure, supply lines, and lay siege.

That document ought to be out of date by now, we can hardly expect the Russians to keep the world updated. Manpower may be a bigger problem than metal. We'll see how Putin's plans for 1.5 million military personnel pan out.

Interesting article:

Ukrainian Armed Forces shoot down a Russian reconnaissance drone and a Ka-52 helicopter, hit 14 personnel concentrations - AFU General Staff. Espreso

On Wednesday, January 18, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have shot down an experimental Russian Merlin-VR reconnaissance drone and a Ka-52 helicopter. Aviation, missile troops and artillery, in turn, hit 14 Russian personnel concentrations

global.espreso.tv

 

[JohnD]

Putin is not able to back down.

He will not live for ever, but after the death of Stalin, the successful replacement may be equally or more belligerent.

The Russian Empire may or may not collapse.

Before 1990, hardly anyone thought the Soviet Empire would collapse

The Russian population is declining, and the proportion of educated young adults is dropping.

The price of Russian oil and gas is falling. Europe has cut its demand, and there are no pipelines to China or India.

 

[Odds]

Putin is not able to back down.

He will not live for ever, but after the death of Stalin, the successful replacement may be equally or more belligerent.

The Russian Empire may or may not collapse.

Before 1990, hardly anyone thought the Soviet Empire would collapse

The Russian population is declining, and the proportion of educated young adults is dropping.

The price of Russian oil and gas is falling. Europe has cut its demand, and there are no pipelines to China or India.

Russia is still the 3rd largest oil supplier to India and despite sanctions the Russian economy dropped by 2.5% last year.
It'll get worse before it begins to get better and even if Russia did manage to subdue Ukraine through force there's no way i can see they'll rule with their former impunity.
China bides its time.

 

[ajohn]

Putin is not able to back down.

Neither can a number of others.

 

[cwhaley]

Before 1990, hardly anyone thought the Soviet Empire would collapse

I studied Russian history at University as part of a History degree. By 1990 there was prominent thinking that the fall of the USSR was inevitable, particularly after Gorbachev weakened Soviet military control in the Warsaw Pact countries in 1988 -- there was a scramble for autonomy practically overnight. That, in combination with the dire state of the Russian economy and the democratic reforms which had started in 1987, started a collapse many had already predicted.

I remember reading a lot of newspaper articles on microfiche, with lots of contemporary commentary asking "how long?" it would be before a breakup of the union.

There is a lot of discontent amongst the population of modern-day Russia, but the population outside of a few Western cities are - on the whole - poor and limited in their options. I really struggle to predict any mass movement against Putin, sadly.

 

[ajohn]

I really struggle to predict any mass movement against Putin, sadly.

Unless it's been severely tampered with his wiki page outlines what he has done for Russia. This actually includes more involvement with the west and kicking conventional communism into touch, He is also helped by a simple fact - Russian are aware of the west's attitude to them and feel they need a strong leader. He popularity is also backed up by results.

 

[cwhaley]

Unless it's been severely tampered with his wiki page outlines what he has done for Russia. This actually includes more involvement with the west and kicking conventional communism into touch, He is also helped by a simple fact - Russian are aware of the west's attitude to them and feel they need a strong leader. He popularity is also backed up by results.

Absolutely. Just look at the level of growth and development seen in Russia since 2000. He's still seen very much as a 'hero' by many.

Out of interest, I do read Russian forums (their domestic ones and also Reddit) and if the comments on there are anything to go by, most are still standing very much by him.

 

[denso13]

Neither can a number of others.

Yes, they are defending the illegal invasion of a sovereign country. There would be no war if Vlad the invader called it off.

 

[Odds]

Yes, they are defending the illegal invasion of a sovereign country. There would be no war if Vlad the invader called it off.

There'd be no war if Americans kept their word.

 

[bernardgreen]

Before 1990, hardly anyone thought the Soviet Empire would collapse

In 1967 in East Germany there were people who saw the collapse as a possibility.

 

[JohnD]

Absolutely. Just look at the level of growth and development seen in Russia since 2000.

Now gone into reverse.

More guns, less butter.

And far fewer educated people of working age.

 

[JohnD]

Russian... feel they need a strong leader. ....

Russia has no tradition of democracy, no folk memory, no democratic institutions, no general belief in freedom.

 

[ajohn]

There would be no war if Vlad the invader called it off.

True but the fact is he has and the repercussions spread much more widely than some realise.

As he has not much point in your post really.

 

[denso13]

As he has not much point in your post really.

Of course there was. You were jumping to the defence of Vlad the invader again, I was pointing out the "military operation" is down to him, and him alone.

 

[Odds]

Russia has no tradition of democracy, no folk memory, no democratic institutions, no general belief in freedom.

And what can we do in this country to prevent further erosion of our 'freedom?
You've seen what Tories are proposing to do with the right to strike, right?