Big Numbers today

[FrodoOne]

Get the numbers from
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
then in keeping with the spirit of the forum I make my own graph, and remarkably for me it is a bit of DIY that didn't involve an angle grinder.

Thank you,

I gather that you have been keeping a daily record of certain data from that source to construct your graphs.
I have been looking at https://bing.com/covid?form=msntrk, which (I believe) was referenced earlier on this thread.

(These two sets of data differ slightly but not by much. It is probable that they are updated at different times.)

 

[IT Minion]

Good piece from the mighty John Redwood about how we need to get back to work:

http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2020/04/06/an-exit-strategy/

At the end of the piece, a true comment: "Lock down hits the lower paid in the private sector hardest".

There's no exit strategy there. It claims that the NHS can now handle huge numbers and we should just crack on and accept the losses.

It's 'herd immunity' part 2. Hundreds of thousands of deaths, but without the courage to admit it.

 

[ajohn]

An interesting read if you have the time or inclination

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Your right it is. No one from the UK attended. Shows how quickly they picked it up and why. I'd have to wonder if others could do the same. Certain styles of illness have to be reported. WHO heard about it on 3rd Jan - more or less at the point where cases built up but still very low.

Also in a few places how awful the virus is. Their risk group is 60+

I heard that now the lock down has been relaxed masks are still needed at times.

 

[Brigadier]

An interesting read if you have the time or inclination

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

This is a snippet from China authorities on how they dealt with is in Hubei province, note EVERYONE wears a mask etc.

Enterprises and institutions have staggered their return to work. Transportation Departments setup thousands of health and quarantine stations in national service areas, and in entrances and exits for passengers at stations. Hubei Province adopted the most stringent traffic control measures, such as suspension of urban public transport, including subway, ferry and long-distance passenger transport. Every citizen has to wear a mask in public. Home support mechanisms were established. As a consequence of all of these measures, public life is very reduced.

Snippet 2

A variety of repurposed drugs and investigational drugs have been identified. Screening NMPA approved drug libraries and other chemical libraries have identified novel agents. Hundreds of clinical trials involving remdesivir, chloroquine, favipiravir, chloroquine, convalescent plasma, TCM and other interventions are planned or underway.

In the few reports i read it 'seemed' they were gaining some success with remdesivir. I am surprised however that considering China are some way ahead in the discovery process we have no resolute plan of attack here so it seems anyway. Unless each country is playing their cards close due to supplies etc.

An impressive effort, on the part of the Chinese government.

Note for the future though; might be simpler to just shut down the wet market. Can't do any harm, can it?

 

[ajohn]

An impressive effort, on the part of the Chinese government.

Note for the future though; might be simpler to just shut down the wet market. Can't do any harm, can it?

You aren't kidding given the efficiency. I wonder how much thermal scanning helped also masks. Maybe Boris should have sent everybody a mask rather than a letter.

Wet market pass. There are strong suspicions relating it to bats. There is a film on netflix called Contagion. USA saves the world etc but right at the end they show one way it might happen. Bat flies around, drops poo over a herd of pigs and one of them eats it. Plus viruses can mutate. I have feeling that should be viri in the uk.

 

[Vinty]

There's no exit strategy there. It claims that the NHS can now handle huge numbers and we should just crack on and accept the losses.

It's 'herd immunity' part 2. Hundreds of thousands of deaths, but without the courage to admit it.

Doesnt herd immunity require at least 60% of the population to become infected.
If between 15 and 20% of those infected are serious enough to require hospitalisation you don't need to be Dianne Abbot to do the sums.
Why do some people insist in comparing this virus to the common flu, unlike cov19 the common flu doesn't kill the doctors and nurses treating patients infected with it.

 

[durhamplumber]

Doesnt herd immunity require at least 60% of the population to become infected.
If between 15 and 20% of those infected are serious enough to require hospitalisation you don't need to be Dianne Abbot to do the sums.
Why do some people insist in comparing this virus to the common flu, unlike cov19 the common flu doesn't kill the doctors and nurses treating patients infected with it.

Because .....they are poorly educated

 

[IT Minion]

Doesnt herd immunity require at least 60% of the population to become infected.
If between 15 and 20% of those infected are serious enough to require hospitalisation you don't need to be Dianne Abbot to do the sums.
Why do some people insist in comparing this virus to the common flu, unlike cov19 the common flu doesn't kill the doctors and nurses treating patients infected with it.

I agree, but it's closer to 80-90%. For highly infectious things like measles it takes 95% for less infectious diseases it needs lower numbers.

To be fair the flu would kill (more, it does kill some) doctors and nurses, if we didn't routinely vaccinate them every year.

 

[EFLImpudence]

What should we compare it with?

Spanish... erm...

 

[IT Minion]

What should we compare it with?

Spanish... erm...

Yes. It's a very close comparison in most ways. Mortality, infectiousness, spread. Of course that was in a time when human life was less precious so the societal effects will have been smaller.

 

[Vinty]

You aren't kidding given the efficiency. I wonder how much thermal scanning helped also masks. Maybe Boris should have sent everybody a mask rather than a letter.

Wet market pass. There are strong suspicions relating it to bats. There is a film on netflix called Contagion. USA saves the world etc but right at the end they show one way it might happen. Bat flies around, drops poo over a herd of pigs and one of them eats it. Plus viruses can mutate. I have feeling that should be viri in the uk.

The Bats infecting pigs scenario has already happened.
Fruit Bats raiding orchards

You aren't kidding given the efficiency. I wonder how much thermal scanning helped also masks. Maybe Boris should have sent everybody a mask rather than a letter.

Wet market pass. There are strong suspicions relating it to bats. There is a film on netflix called Contagion. USA saves the world etc but right at the end they show one way it might happen. Bat flies around, drops poo over a herd of pigs and one of them eats it. Plus viruses can mutate. I have feeling that should be viri in the uk.

The Bats infecting pigs scenario has already happened.
Fruit Bats in Indonesia raiding orchards next door to pig farms contaminated pig swill with a virus that almost wiped out the Indonesion pig industry.
The Virus then jumped from pigs to humans and killed up to 75% of those infected.
Fortunately it was a slow moving virus and was contained before it got out of control.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19108397/

 

[ajohn]

Maybe we should exterminate bats. No point really as there will be other sources of lethal / semi lethal and etc viruses. The epidemic people have been warning governments that we are overdue a bad one for a long time and also the problem of containing it in the modern world. One source that has been mentioned is the Amazon released via deforestation.

 

[Munroast]

I love bats, even have a bat box for them to roost and breed in. Just love sitting outside with a beer of a summer evening watching them in the gloaming.
Amazing creatures

 

[IT Minion]

Maybe we should exterminate bats. No point really as there will be other sources of lethal / semi lethal and etc viruses. The epidemic people have been warning governments that we are overdue a bad one for a long time and also the problem of containing it in the modern world. One source that has been mentioned is the Amazon released via deforestation.

Factory farming is also often a strong factor. Loads of animals kept in very close quarters with often poor health. Roll on the vat based meats I say.

 

[ajohn]

They just had a Sir Prof on BBC. He said that if the UK can reach 60% herd immunity all restrictions could be lifted but did say that they can't tell how high it is. He wasn't advocating it just explaining the interest in this aspect. Afraid I can't see how this can mean that there aren't still some infected people about. He also mentioned that lock down is unlikely to change for weeks and relaxations could only be slight without considerable risk.