Big Numbers today

[IT Minion]

They just had a Sir Prof on BBC. He said that if the UK can reach 60% herd immunity all restrictions could be lifted but did say that they can't tell how high it is. He wasn't advocating it just explaining the interest in this aspect. Afraid I can't see how this can mean that there aren't still some infected people about. He also mentioned that lock down is unlikely to change for weeks and relaxations could only be slight without considerable risk.

It means that whilst you might catch it and spread it, then the rate of spread will be lower so you might be able to spot an emerging cluster.

60% would require a vaccine, in which case it's only a stepping stone to higher numbers, or a huge death toll.

 

[ajohn]

The brief just went into the likely amount of the dreaded herd immunity. They are trying to tie that down but from results from other countries that are also looking it's likely to be single figures while mentioning that it will be higher in some areas - places with higher infection counts related to population but still low.

A couple of intelligent questions from reporters this time - rather unusual.

If the higher infection rate is use and there has been say 60,000 hospital cases 180,000 more may have been infected immediately. The 2 to 3 infection rate seems to be from China though with different controls but say their was 1,000,000 that is still a small proportion of the population.

I read this as they are doing what they said they are doing - keeping deaths down and making sure the NHS can cope because if they can't a lot more will die. Maybe herd immunity was a pipe dream or an at least a will have some people left. The hole really is circa 13 million people needing to isolate for 3 months and still a long time to go. It needs a vaccine really but it's looking like all do really.

They also mentioned that the hospital data is of most use to them because it's live and accurate and reflects the situation in the population. Pretty obvious I would have thought. This came out as result of one asking about deaths in the community. Then came yet another are you in control for Raab. Idiots.

 

[festive]

And yet China are almost back to normal this is bullsh1t mr handman i don't believe a lockdown eradicated this disease because i don't believe in the 3/4weeks leading up to their epidemic, and China apparently not being aware of the virus, many people would have traversed Wuhan to many other parts of China.

 

[IT Minion]

And yet China are almost back to normal this is bullsh1t mr handman i don't believe a lockdown eradicated this disease because i don't believe in the 3/4weeks leading up to their epidemic, and China apparently not being aware of the virus, many people would have traversed Wuhan to many other parts of China.

That's not how it works there. Travel and internal migration is controlled. It's not like the UK or EU where loads of people jet off for ski trips and football matches on the weekend.

https://www.citymetric.com/politics...m-movement-even-between-country-and-city-2697

 

[ajohn]

That's not how it works there. Travel and internal migration is controlled. It's not like the UK or EU where loads of people jet off for ski trips and football matches on the weekend.

https://www.citymetric.com/politics...m-movement-even-between-country-and-city-2697

An aside on one aspect of movement is why. Too many moved out of agriculture net results millions died. As always there are other factors

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine

It does mention the one I have and yes there are buts and it also indicates that 1/2 of the other deaths were avoidable.

 

[festive]

That's not how it works there. Travel and internal migration is controlled. It's not like the UK or EU where loads of people jet off for ski trips and football matches on the weekend.

https://www.citymetric.com/politics...m-movement-even-between-country-and-city-2697

Ok that's not how I read it..stand to be corrected but my understanding of hokou is the restriction of rural to urban migration. Can urbanites or financially wealthy still move around, what about corporate multi nationals etc, i just don't see how Wuhan was completely sealed off a month before they discovered the epidemic or realised the threat of such.
They were using sh'tty heat guns to try and detect infected people who were moving around, as we since discovered was useless.

 

[IT Minion]

Ok that's not how I read it..stand to be corrected but my understanding of hokou is the restriction of rural to urban migration. Can urbanites or financially wealthy still move around, what about multi nationals etc, i just don't see how Wuhan was completely sealed off a month before they discovered the epidemic or realised the threat of such.

You're right, that one only shows part of the restrictions. I believe travel is still less command more restricted than the west, but I can't find a Google link to prove or disprove in the time I can be bothered to spend.

 

[festive]

You're right, that one only shows part of the restrictions. I believe travel is still less command more restricted than the west, but I can't find a Google link to prove or disprove in the time I can be bothered to spend.

Indeed there is little information and it's such a beautiful day out here. However i saw this snippet also.

'With regards to Chinese with Hukou it affects your social security, medical insurance as well as your ability to purchase real estate. It does not stop you from travelling.' So it seems you can still jump on a train go somewhere but you can't go live there, and it seems this doesn't affect ALL.

So not one person left wuhan with covid19 and infected any other part of china, that was a close shave.

 

[ajohn]

They were using sh'tty heat guns to try and detect infected people who were moving around, as we since discovered was useless.

I've wondered how effective those were. They need calibrating according to the surface type they are measuring. I bought a general purpose one once and sent it back to amazon - that is probably why. Readings did depend on what it was pointed at. The other thing it would need is facial recognition for remote use on crowds. Then tracking of course.

China politics - I've heard it described as this.
Technocracy is an ideological system of governance in which decision-makers are selected on the basis of their expertise in a given area of responsibility, particularly with regard to scientific or technical knowledge. This system explicitly contrasts with the notion that elected representatives should be the primary decision-makers in government,[1] though it does not necessarily imply eliminating elected representatives. Leadership skills for decision-makers are selected on the basis of specialized knowledge and performance, rather than political affiliations or parliamentary skills.[2]

Their version may allow them to make decisions a lot more quickly. be they right or wrong. Probably a bad idea to be wrong in China. Also as with some other countries they have had previous experience so have plans in place.

 

[SirGalahad]

Ok that's not how I read it..stand to be corrected but my understanding of hokou is the restriction of rural to urban migration. Can urbanites or financially wealthy still move around, what about corporate multi nationals etc, i just don't see how Wuhan was completely sealed off a month before they discovered the epidemic or realised the threat of such.
They were using sh'tty heat guns to try and detect infected people who were moving around, as we since discovered was useless.

Quarantine. China Style. Travellers who were stricken on the Cruise Liner off the coast of Miami flew back to heathrow to mingle with the rest of the arrivals.

 

[Munroast]

what on earth is happening in Belgium?
spain and italy are showing some promising signs
Interesting that Sweden who are not locking down anything like we are seem to be doing no worse that others?

data from worldometers
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[SirGalahad]

953 today. We are well over 1000 daily.

 

[ajohn]

I wait for the PHE graph to update. Late evening recently.
The FT have made this page free - generous.

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

They use a 7 day rolling average for deaths - get round the variation due to different mixes of the people going in. Sounds fair enough to me. They also use log scales for infections etc. It suites this sort of thing as the slope indicates the "daily rate increases" via a straight line if the daily rate always increases by the same factor eg doubles etc. They are not per million of population. There's a video on why they have shown things this way.

 

[motorbiking]

Social distancing is pretty easy in Sweden.

I think we have another 7-10 days of fatalities rising, as there is a lag.

 

[ajohn]

This describes the Singapore approach. Sounds like they have had a 2nd wave at the time it was reported but expected to fix that too.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjEzeHhj97oAhWuQxUIHX2oBMAQFjAAegQIARAB&url=https://www.ft.com/content/ca4e0db0-6aaa-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3&usg

It's a modified google link again. Doh That may not work. Google Singapore war on virus.

Interesting use of blue tooth. Seems that all they used for contact tracing. Probably range? One of our academics on TV mentioned that but just look at how much testing they did. Scaled up to say 65million ???