Big Numbers today

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I do know fillyboy is right

As ever. The problem is the more advanced a vehicle is, the more there is to go wrong, minor electronic glitches etc, serious mechanical failures are almost unheard of in these surveys. Audi did tend to lead the way in advanced technology and that penalises them on the reliability stakes.
 
Lets take that as fact for a moment. Given there isn't yet any known cure, or effective treatment other than o2 to the brian and antibiotics for the pneumonia. How would that translate into substantially lower deaths?

I don't see it either as they can't test their entire population, 83million, so infections must be running up. They do have more space than us though and things like travel to work may well be entirely different for a lot of the population. In some respects although I haven't been in many places there for a rather long time they do seem to have company town type areas. Nothing remotely like the American ones that cause people to have rather low living standards and nothing to do.

I'd say in real terms it's a time will tell. On the other hand they may have suggested a change in travel much as I think they should have done in the UK - preventing people from buzzing about all over the country and the majority sticking to what they usually do - go to work, come home and shop but don't go out of the areas that involves.

Also perhaps they are only reporting on people who have been tested as here in real terms but not based on hospital entries. I'd be inclined to think this is more likely but pass.
 
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A healthcare system that is not overloaded will be able to cope better with a surge in demand for ICU beds and ventilators. It is therefore less likely to have to make difficult triage decisions on who gets a ventilator.

I'm not convinced that there are outcome differences so huge, between two systems that are not struggling to operate due to capacity. I don't yet think we are prioritising care. The difference are vast and its the same in France, which also has a good state healthcare system.

At the other end - Greece has poor state healthcare and is doing well. Quite possibly due to the fact it comprises of 2000 islands and the locals don't move about much in the winter. Or nobody knows why the old people have vanished.
 
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I'm not convinced that there are outcome differences so huge, between two systems that are not struggling to operate due to capacity. I don't yet think we are prioritising care. The difference are vast and its the same in France, which also has a good state healthcare system.

At the other end - Greece has poor state healthcare and is doing well. Quite possibly due to the fact it comprises of 2000 islands and the locals don't move about much in the winter.

I don't think it's as simple as that. The virus if left to it's own devices is capable of infecting entire populations pretty quickly leaving more people in need of care than any country can cope with. China gives and idea. Wohan's population is 11million so they build an n thousand bed hospital and still need controls to manage. They have just released some of the controls that gives some idea of the time needed. They have waited some time since no cases and got in late - as other countries have really for one reason or another.

The saturation news we get now is interesting. Just off the BBC and C4, particularly the BBC. Boris gave them a changes so loads of comments about who runs what when the real runners are the groups of experts - 2 of them and a temp prime minister can do exactly the same as an elected one. The strategy wont be down to Boris it will be a consensus of some sort including advisers. Next load of news may be costs if lock downs last for more than 3months when money in many respects is now irrelevant. If things ever get sorted out they have to be irrespective of cost or saying Ok some will die - more than there needed to be. There is a woman at the moment on deaths double every 3 and 1/2 days and they haven't recently. Suggesting a curve,. Statistically the deaths need to be related to the people who went into hospital and when. At the same scale as that they form a more or less increasing straight line - a % die. Then she goes on to mixing up 100,000 viral tests a day with immunity ones. Now they are reporting survey results on policing of the lock down. 75% think fine. Surprise surprise. Now they are interviewing a semi expert who can probably see the figures - she reckon social distances may have reduced the infection ratio to under 1. They are now talking about viral tests per 100,000 population on england, scotland, wales and N Ireland. Looks like it follows population and the UK does lag behind by up to ~100 per 100,000. Then they go on to 100,000 tests at the end of the month by mentioning the NHS testing getting to 25,000 without looking at the map of further testing centres that are coming on line. Now they are asking another semi expert about the end of lock down - guess what he said? They reported that it wont end on monday earlier. He then went on to say what is different about CV19. Sounds like it was initially thought to be another flu which always kills some numbers depending on which one it is. CV19 has turned to be far worse in some totally unexpected areas. More interesting.

Argggggggg Hours with seconds of useful info.

The problem with the immunity test seems to be that we have been exposed to several coronavirus - hence this one being 19. It's tricky to pick out immunity for just that particular one. Others can give a positive result. I'd guess that they are going to use the 100,000 a day to do what Germany may be doing. Accurately follow the progress of a limited number of people. I just don't see how it can be used to test a full population. We know that a 100,000 people data needs about 25 days to fully gather the information needed if all are infected but many "results" will available sooner. The number unaffected is also probably useful but that doesn't mean they wont catch it.
 
Oxygent is running short.

https://www.hsj.co.uk/oxygen-supply-problems-the-new-ppe-warn-hospital-bosses/7027333.article

Oxygen shortages and difficulties in expanding storage quickly are now a major problem for hospital bosses dealing with covid-19 patients, HSJ has been told.

Senior managers across England warned supplies were running low and the number of engineers available was not sufficient to expand capacity.

While there is thought to be sufficient total medical oxygen in the UK, the concerns are about the regularity of deliveries which are needed to specific hospitals; and about the engineering expertise needed to ensure it is used safely and can be made available to a much-expanded set of patients requiring it.
 
938, that's bad (well 1 is bad TBF), condolences to all of the families affected.
 
938, that's bad (well 1 is bad TBF), condolences to all of the families affected.

Yes it is and everyone will feel sorry for the families. The death figures have a problem though. The reporting time varies after some one dies and the time for people to die does as well. This is why the official pundits regard it as near random number. Viewed as it's show here via a red line it's a steady increase related to people going into hospital

8thAprilGraph.jpg


That fits in with another graph they showed in the brief today - the number of people in ICU's is steadying. That is good news as it means that the capacity hasn't been exceeded so lock down is showing signs that it is working. Deaths are emotive so we will here reports over and over again especially if higher than some before.

The green line shows that the rate of entry is also steady. Ideally the dots would be equally spaced. There has for some reason been a weekend effect several times but again on average it's a straight line from time to time showing early signs of a reduction in rate. Infection times are random as well.

C4 is rabbiting on about unemployment now - paying loads of peoples wages is the best thing they can about that and as the brief said they can't prevent some falling through the holes. Some companies might just say no job any more what ever they do.

;) I suppose some would say I want the red line at a bigger scale but as it's semi random data and relates to hospital entries that doesn't make much sense.
 
Mixed stories paint a picture of the ventilators contributing little help to many patients. Not sure if you saw that viral video today of a Spanish ICU worker saying they are completely swamped and anyone over 65 is being bumped off the waiting list and just left sedated to die due the low chances of them surviving anyway. Desperate times :(

Until we start to find effective treatments to covid19 (as the Ventilator option isn't the holy grail here) and the other variants of this virus i don't see how Europe and the UK are going to cope as well as China managed. (ok Germany seems an exception for now) and then we have the USA, fck me they are in the sh't.
 
I do know that VAG have had big issues with the TSI range of engines and the DSG 'boxes are an absolute pig if they go wrong.

So, buy a VAG car with a diesel lump and a manual 'box.

However, I have known VAG owners having issues with premature failure of clutches on manuals.

IME, cars with dual mass flywheels are less reliable.
 
I do know that VAG have had big issues with the TSI range of engines and the DSG 'boxes are an absolute pig if they go wrong.

So, buy a VAG car with a diesel lump and a manual 'box.

However, I have known VAG owners having issues with premature failure of clutches on manuals.

IME, cars with dual mass flywheels are less reliable.
Somewhat off topic :D

You're right though and its a big cover up too, they changed piston and conrod design to make it even more fun if one piston fails you have to replace the lot for obvious reasons.

Same for DMF. But then what's the option.
 
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